PEDIGREE HANDICAPPING
JUNE 2, 2006
Epsom Derby
by Tim Holland
On Saturday, a field of 18 will face the starter for Europe’s most important
three-year-old test, the Epsom Derby (Eng-G1). First run in 1780, notable
winners over the past 50 years include *Sea Bird II, Sir Ivor, Nijinsky II, Mill
Reef and, more recently, High Chaparral (Ire).
Run over an undulating 1 1/2 miles with a fairly steep climb through the
first few furlongs, the Derby is a true test of stamina. Indeed, the trip has
recently exposed the limitations of top milers and 1 1/4-mile runners such as
well fancied Group 1 winners Dubawi, Refuse to Bend (Ire), Hawk Wing, Dubai
Millennium, Entrepreneur and Pennekamp. However, while stamina is a vital
quality for this test, it is also advantageous for runners to possess a degree
of speed, especially when the ground is on the fast side, as forecast this year.
Indeed, in the last 10 years, seven winners were prominently placed throughout,
with one of the exceptions being the outstanding win by High Chaparral from way
off the pace over ground that was unusually soft.
Favorites have fared well historically in the Epsom classic, winning 20 times
in the last 50 years — a win rate of 40 percent. This bodes well for VISINDAR (Sinndar),
who has headed the market since his easy victory as the heavy favorite in the
Prix Greffulhe (Fr-G2) at Saint-Cloud, which was his third win in as many
starts, all over vastly inferior opponents. A very imposing individual, Visindar
will try to give his trainer, Andre Fabre, a first victory in one of the few
major races that has eluded him. Although he has impressed in everything that
has been asked of him, it is slightly troubling that neither Visindar’s class
nor stamina has been tested.
While he is by a stallion that proved himself by winning the Derby as well as
the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (Fr-G1), it must be noted that Visindar is out of
a Mr. Prospector mare, whose lone win came in a maiden sprint at Turfway Park,
from a predominantly dirt type family. To further this point, and while the
“dosage system” is not normally applied to European races, the fact is that
Visindar owns a less desirable center of distribution figure than any Derby
winner since the exceptional Mill Reef 35 years ago. Visindar may well win and
silence the skeptics, as George Washington (Danehill) did at Newmarket last
month, but so often horseplayers get burned by taking too short a price on an
unproven horse.
In recent times, the most productive trial for the Derby has been the Dante
S. (Eng-G2), run at York in mid-May, which has supplied six of the winners in
the past 20 years, including 2005 English Derby hero Motivator. This year’s
renewal was won by the Aidan O’Brien-trained SEPTIMUS (Sadler’s Wells), who
galloped away strongly to win by eight lengths to seemingly become the powerful
stable’s number one hope. However, it can be argued that the quality of the
competition was doubtful at York and the colt’s high knee-action suggested that
he relished the very soft ground, a condition he will probably not get to enjoy
at Epsom.
However, the biggest negative to the chances of Septimus may be the fact that
O’Brien’s stable jockey, Kieren Fallon, opted to partner HORATIO NELSON (Danehill)
after the two colts had their final tune-ups on Tuesday. The Derby has been
Horatio Nelson’s target since last fall when he finished a strong second in the
Dewhurst S. (Eng-G1) following an extremely troubled trip. By Danehill, who
sired the 2004 winner, North Light (Ire), and out of Imagine (Ire) (Sadler’s
Wells), who herself won the Epsom Oaks (Eng-G1), Horatio Nelson will be trying
to emulate the feat of his close relation Generous, who won this classic coming
off an unplaced finish in the Two Thousand Guineas (Eng-G1).
While the O’Brien stable won the Two Thousand Guineas with George Washington,
that race was basically a prep for Horatio Nelson. He showed good speed and
stayed on reasonably well to be beaten six lengths at the finish, and he was
undoubtedly in need of the race. His natural speed, which he displayed when
going wire-to-wire in last year’s Superlative S. (Eng-G3), is reminiscent of
another O’Brien trainee, Galileo (Ire), of whom the trainer noted “is bred to go
one and a half miles but has so much speed.” Galileo tracked the leaders in the
2001 Derby before taking the lead two furlongs from home and winning easily on
fast ground. One can expect Horatio Nelson to try similar tactics over footing
that should be to his liking.
SIR PERCY (Mark Of Esteem [Ire]) has beaten Horatio Nelson on the two
occasions they have met, the first in last year’s Dewhurst Stakes (Eng-G1) when
the former got first run and held off his unlucky rival to win by a neck. Sir
Percy also took his chance in the Two Thousand Guineas (Eng-G1) finishing a very
creditable second but after the race he was found to have been jarred by the
firm footing. After missing a few days of work, the colt has been working well
recently for his trainer, Marcus Tregoning, and the slightly easier ground will
be to his benefit. Sir Percy has shown tactical speed in all his races and has a
stout pedigree being out of a mare by the stamina influence Blakeney. He has
proven his class and has few knocks against him but with added fitness and
better racing luck one might believe that Horatio Nelson is the better of the
pair.
The Chester Vase (Eng-G3) is run over 12 1/2 furlongs around a very tight and
undulating course, and it was used in 1990 by Quest for Fame (GB) as his final
Derby prep. PAPAL BULL, whose sire Montjeu (Ire) is responsible for last year’s
winner, Motivator, took this prep by three quarters of a length over DRAGON
DANCER (Sadler’s Wells). Papal Bull is an improving colt who has proven he can
stay the distance and has top connections, being trained by Sir Michael Stoute
and owned by Michael Tabor. However, his form is devalued by the fact that
second place finisher Dragon Dancer is still a maiden, and three other mediocre
rivals were involved in the finish.
HALA BEK (Halling) beat Dragon Dancer when winning his only previous race —
a maiden at Newbury. While this is a huge step up in class, it is not
unprecedented for a Derby winner to be making just his second start, with
Lammtarra being the last to accomplish the feat in 1995.
LINDA’S LAD (Sadler’s Wells) comes to Epsom in the shadow of his stable
companion, Visindar, but is a legitimate contender in his own right. A winner in
four of eight starts, including a Group 1 event in France on very heavy ground,
Linda’s Lad most recently won the Lingfield Derby Trial (Eng-G3), beating
Hazeymm (Marju) by a head. However, like many of his sire’s offspring, Linda’s
Lad may prefer softer going.
In one of his three 2005 victories in France, Linda’s Lad defeated
CHAMPIONSHIP POINT (Lomitas [GB]), who is clearly better on quicker turf, by a
head while receiving a relevant five pounds from that rival. Championship Point
was rested for the remainder of the year after that start and reappeared at
Goodwood in early May for the listed Predominate S. at 1 3/8 miles. Goodwood,
although opposite in direction, is not unlike Epsom in that there is an uphill
run followed by a noticeable downhill descent to the final turn.
Championship Point handled this course very professionally and showed a
terrific turn of foot to win impressively by four lengths. While admittedly the
class of his opposition has to be questioned, it was an extremely promising
effort in his first attempt farther than a mile and more improvement is
expected. The 16-1 odds available on the Mick Channon charge offers the best
across-the-board bet in the race.
My Epsom Derby selections are:
1. HORATIO NELSON
2. CHAMPIONSHIP POINT
3. SIR PERCY
4. VISINDAR