BC Distaff J

The Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1) has always attracted top notch distaffers from
across the country. As is normal for such a big day, one runner usually has
already made herself so well known that she is sent off the betting public’s
choice. However, since 1996 only two of those favorites — Azeri and Ashado —
have actually succeeded at fulfilling their backers’ faith, leaving eight
outside choices to cross under the line first. FLEET INDIAN (Indian Charlie) has
made such a name for herself that she could go off at her 8-5 morning-line odds.
Unfortunately, she will have to battle not only 13 rivals, but history itself.
Because of this, we’re going with HAPPY TICKET (Anet) to spring the upset this
year under Garrett Gomez.

Happy Ticket isn’t undefeated this year like Fleet Indian, but
the bay five-year-old has challenged in every start except for her last, which
we’ll get to in a moment. Just looking at this season, the Andrew Leggio Jr.
trainee has earned two wins and three close seconds. She began her 2006 campaign
off a dismal effort in last year’s Distaff, which has turned out to be her worst
race to date. Leggio gave his charge time off after that one, bringing her back
in the Louisiana Premier Night Distaff S., which she captured by 5 1/2 easy
lengths. Next out, Happy Ticket ran heartbreaking neck seconds in the Azeri
Breeders’ Cup S. (G3) and Apple Blossom H. (G1), battling throughout those 8
1/2-furlong tests before just falling short at the wire. Stepping up another
half-furlong in Churchill’s Fleur de Lis H. (G2), the mare broke in the air at
the start, ran four wide, but was still able to get up for the head victory with
the talented Oonagh Maccool (Ire) (Giant’s Causeway) in second. In those four
starts, Happy Ticket earned triple-digit BRIS Speed and Late Pace ratings,
including a 109 Speed for the Apple Blossom.

Two back, the bay was seen once again finishing second, this
time in the Clement L. Hirsch H. (G2), and then threw in her worst performance
this year when sixth, three lengths back, in the Spinster S. (G1) last out. That
race can be completely discarded, though, as it occurred over Keeneland’s
Polytrack and she was trapped along the rail throughout. Happy Ticket will have
to dig down to earn the win on Saturday in the Distaff, but she has the class,
talent and experience to do just that.

Having said all that, Fleet Indian can’t be thrown out. The Todd
Pletcher-trained five-year-old has strung together eight straight wins since
2005, including two while running for conditioners James Toner and
Clifford Sise Jr. Since moving to Pletcher, however, the dark bay has
competed, and been victorious, in nothing but stakes events, including the rich
Delaware H. (G2), Personal Ensign S. (G1) and Beldame S. (G1) in her past three.
Fleet Indian earned a 109 Speed rating for her Delaware H. score as well as
posting century-topping BRIS E2 Pace figures for her past three starts. Prior to
her win in the Beldame, many were saying she was nothing but a front runner, but
the dark bay proved her doubters wrong, stalking the early pace in fourth before
moving up to hold off BALLETTO (UAE) (Timber Country) by a head at the line.
Fleet Indian will keep Jose Santos aboard for the Distaff and the pair could
wrap up a championship season on Saturday.

BUSHFIRE (Louis Quatorze) has done well this season, winning
five races and being disqualified from third in the Kentucky Oaks (G1). After
taking the Acorn S. (G1) and Mother Goose S. (G1), the bay lass finally got a
break after seven straight months of competitive starts. Trainer Eddie Kenneally
brought his charge back in the Gazelle S. (G1) last out, and the sophomore set
the early pace before fading to finish fifth. She probably needed that race
off the layoff and returns here fresh for her final major challenge of the year.
Bushfire has experience winning at Churchill and at nine furlongs, and could
really challenge for it all under Alex Solis.

While many will throw Balletto out of any
win tickets, the chestnut four-year-old could surprise by taking her first win
of the year here. The talented miss, winner of the 2004 Frizette S. (G1), was
retired after undergoing colic surgery last year.
However, she recovered so well that owner Darley Stable sent her back into
training with Tom Albertrani and that decision has paid dividends, with Balletto
running second or third in all but one of her starts in 2006. Two of her runner-up finishes
were close, and most recently she was just short a head at the wire when
facing Fleet Indian in the Beldame. On that day, the filly came with a furious
late rush to take on the winner, but just couldn’t seem to get to her rival in
time. Balletto has been playing bridesmaid all year and could finally complete
the trip down the Breeders’ Cup aisle with Corey Nakatani holding the reins.

PINE ISLAND (Arch) owns only six starts, but has won four and
finished second in the other two. The Shug McGaughey-trained dark bay broke her maiden
in her career debut on the turf in March, but was switched to the dirt when her
next race came off the green. Since then, Pine Island has proven to be a top
class dirt distaffer, running second in the Mother Goose and Coaching Club
American Oaks (G1) before taking the Alabama S. (G1) and Gazelle in her last
two. She’s earned top numbers in all but her initial start and could progress
enough to make a run in the top three for a share. POOL LAND (Silver Deputy) is
another Pletcher runner in here, but doesn’t have as good a chance as Fleet
Indian. The four-year-old filly was a two-length winner of the Ruffian H. (G1)
last out and finished third behind SPUN SUGAR (Awesome Again) and Balletto in
the Go for Wand H. (G1) two back. The chestnut owns some of the top numbers in
this field and has both the ability and experience to threaten in the
exotics under John Velazquez.

Spun Sugar hasn’t been as consistent as she was in 2005, when
she won the Black-Eyed Susan S. (G2) and reliably recorded century-topping
numbers. This year, she beat Happy Ticket by a neck in the Apple Blossom and won the Go for
Wand by a nose, but she’s also finished off the board a couple of times. The four-year-old bay
could pick up the pieces if any of our top picks falter, so consider for the
gimmicks at a price. ROUND POND (Awesome Again) will be making her third start
for Michael Matz here and is still looking for her first win since capturing the
Azeri Breeders’ Cup for her previous trainer, John Servis. The bay
lass did well earlier in the season, but didn’t show much when
returning from a summer vacation. Still, she might have improved enough off her last
start to earn a share here.

Kentucky Oaks queen LEMONS FOREVER (Lemon Drop Kid) hasn’t done
anything since that victory, but has experience winning over the track and might
surprise yet again, but most likely not with the win. HEALTHY ADDICTION (Boston
Harbor) is a Grade 1 winner this year, but her only start outside of California
was a 13th in last year’s Distaff. We don’t see the five-year-old doing any
better this time around. BAGHDARIA (Royal Academy) has been competitive at the
Grade 2 level, but couldn’t challenge when trying the C.C.A. Oaks
two back. We can’t recommend at this time.

HOLLYWOOD STORY (Wild Rush) would be a definite win candidate,
and probable pick, if this event was run at Hollywood Park. However, since this
is Churchill, we’ll have to let her beat us. SHARP LISA (Dixieland Band) looks
overmatched against these. ASI SIEMPRE (El Prado [Ire]) won the Spinster over
others in here with ease, but that came on the Polytrack, and this former turf
runner will be facing the top echelon in the most competitive dirt distaff event
of the year. We can’t see her doing much in here.