BC Mile J

A full field has been assembled for the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1),
and GORELLA (Fr) (Grape Tree Road [GB]) is a slight favorite on the morning line
at 4-1. Seven of the 14 contestants are European shippers, including the 9-2
second choice, Irish classic winner ARAAFA (Ire) (Mull of Kintyre), but
American-based runners have won seven of the last 11 runnings. We’re going to
take a stab with a longshot.

BADGE OF SILVER (Silver Deputy) is the probable lone speed and has the class
to steal it. He’s unraced since New Year’s Day, but trainer Bobby Frankel excels
with horses off lengthy layoffs, winning at nearly a 30 percent clip. The
six-year-old horse is working well for his return, recording a pair of bullet
six-furlong moves recently at Keeneland, and Badge of Silver showed an affinity
for the sod when making his turf debut in the San Gabriel H. (G2) last time out,
earning a 106 BRIS Speed rating for the 2 1/2-length, wire-to-wire score. A
two-time Grade 2 winner, Badge of Silver will receive a jockey switch to Edgar
Prado, who won two Breeders’ Cup events last year and can do a good job
rationing the dark bay’s speed. North East Bound nearly stole the last Mile at
Churchill (2000) on the lead at 42-1, clicking off a half-mile in :47 4/5, and
Badge of Silver figures to be setting a very moderate pace this year. We’ll look
for him to save enough for the finish.

ARAGORN (Ire) (Giant’s Causeway) won’t be far behind the pacesetter, and he’s
got the late kick to win it all. Formerly based in England, the chestnut colt
earned his first U.S. win when capturing last year’s Oak Tree Derby (G2), and he’s
dominated the turf ranks in California this season, winning the Shoemaker
Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1), Eddie Read H. (G1), Del Mar Breeders’ Cup H. (G2) and
Oak Tree Breeders’ Cup Mile (G2) in his last four starts. If Aragorn runs back
to the first three, he’s got an excellent chance to have his picture taken.
However, the Oak Tree Breeders’ Cup Mile raised some concerns as Aragorn had to
work harder than expected to defeat lesser rivals. Was that an indication that
he was over the top? We’re inclined to say no with Neil Drysdale as the trainer,
and the Hall of Fame conditioner has stated that Aragorn is doing as well as
ever presently. We’ll find out for sure on Saturday, and we’ll use America’s
best turf miler in all multi-race wagers.

Araafa is another top win contender. An excellent second to George Washington
(Ire) (Danehill) in the Queen Elizabeth II S. (Eng-G1) last out, the Jeremy
Noseda-trained sophomore defeated that rival when capturing the Irish Two
Thousand Guineas (Ire-G1), and he added the prestigious St. James’s Palace S.
(Eng-G1) to his resume in his following start. Araafa appears capable of
handling any kind of ground, and he gets a top American rider in John Velazquez.
The classy colt should be in position to challenge for it all turning for home.

SLEEPING INDIAN (GB) (Indian Ridge) is an intriguing longshot play from the
barn of John Gosden. A solid campaigner over the past couple of seasons, the
five-year-old horse returned off a 11-month layoff to win a listed stakes at
Newbury in mid-September and then suffered a terrible trip in the Prix de la
Foret (Fr-G1) at Longchamp next out. He prepped for the Mile with a sharp score
in the Challenge S. (Eng-G2) at Newmarket last out. Sleeping Indian is
relatively fresh and is well-regarded by European punters. He could get involved
late under new rider Alex Solis.

ROB ROY (Lear Fan) is another upset candidate. He’s been knocking heads
against top-class company all season and exits a first-rate effort in the
Champion S. (Eng-G1), outfinishing Hurricane Run (Ire) (Montjeu [Ire])
for the place. The Group 2 winner appears to be at the top of his game
presently, and trainer Sir Michael Stoute is a three-time Breeders’ Cup race
winner. Consider him for the exotics.

AUSSIE RULES (Danehill) drew a bad post (14), but we were very encouraged by
his victory in the Shadwell Turf Mile (G1) last out. The Aidan O’Brien charge
earned a Group 1 victory earlier this year in the French Two Thousand Guineas (Fr-G1) at Longchamp, and he turned in respectable efforts against better
company in the Eclipse S. (Eng-G1), Sussex S. (Eng-G1) and Prix du Moulin de
Longchamp S. (Fr-G1). The gray colt earned a whopping 114 BRIS Late Pace rating
for his strong finish last time, and he’s eligible to carry his form forward
with another top showing in the Mile.

Gorella is perhaps the best female turf horse in North America and would have
probably won last year’s Mile at Belmont Park with clear sailing (she was
steadied repeatedly before finishing third by three-quarters of a length), but
we’re willing to take a stand against her at Churchill. Her only off-the-board
finish in North America came in the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic (G1) over the
course in May. She was in tight quarters in the stretch that day, but Gorella
never appeared comfortable and wasn’t going to challenge for the top three
regardless. The four-year-old lass may also be a little vulnerable off a
grueling win last time in the First Lady S. (G2) at Keeneland. Gorella has the
class to prove us wrong, but we’ll just watch to see how she performs.

MIESQUE’S APPROVAL (Miesque’s Son) captured the Firecracker Breeders’ Cup H.
(G2) at Churchill Downs in early July, and the seven-year-old horse is a
four-time stakes winner this year. We have a lot of respect for trainer Marty
Wolfson, but Miesque’s Approval wasn’t a factor last time in the Shadwell Turf
Mile and will find this spot even more difficult. AD VALOREM (Danzig) finished a
decent third in the Woodbine Mile (Can-G1) most recently, and the four-year-old
owns plenty of back class, winning the 2004 Middle Park S. (Eng-G1) and this
year’s Queen Anne S. (Eng-G1). The O’Brien trainee didn’t draw a favorable post
at the rail, and Ad Valorem can be pretty inconsistent, finishing out of the
money in four of his last six starts.

FREE THINKING (Unbridled) nearly upset his rivals in the Kelso Breeders’ Cup
H. (G2) last out and has been a very solid turf runner for trainer Doug Danner,
posting a 3-1-1-1 mark at Churchill Downs this year. The five-year-old has
always run well at a mile (5-2-3-0), but Free Thinking is probably facing too
much of a class hike in this spot. SILENT NAME (Jpn) (Sunday Silence) looked
very promising when capturing his first two U.S. starts, including an easy win
over a strong field in the Arcadia H. (G2), but the four-year-old colt did not
go on in his subsequent appearances, dropping his last three starts. He did
travel wide when seventh in the Shadwell Turf Mile, but we don’t think he’s
sharp enough to challenge for it all.

LIBRETTIST (Danzig) was reportedly lame following a disappointing sixth in
the Queen Elizabeth II at Ascot, and jockey Frankie Dettori has departed him to
ride stablemate ECHO OF LIGHT (GB) (Dubai Millennium). He had reeled off five
straight wins, including two Group 1s, prior to his last, but we’re not
convinced that we’ll see his best on Saturday. Echo of Light enters off a pair
of nice stakes wins in France and England, but he hasn’t had much success in his
two previous attempts at the Group 1 level. SUPER FROLIC (Pine Bluff) has never
finished first or second in six previous turf starts. We can’t envision him
being a factor.