BREEDERS’ CUP EXOTICS REPORT
A Day for Huge Scores
by Richard Nilsen
Historic and renovated Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, is once again
host to the Breeders’ Cup World Thoroughbred Championships. Saturday’s $20
million year-end championship day will be televised live by ESPN (12-7 p.m. ET).
With huge pari-mutuel pools for all the wagering options, no other raceday,
not even Kentucky Derby Day, offers the potential to take down a monster payoff
or two.
Horseplayers have their choice of an extensive wagering menu. From simple win
wagers to more complex exotic wagers such as superfectas, rolling Pick-3s,
rolling Pick-4s, the Ultra Pick-6 and more.
Average Payoffs
In horse racing, selecting the exacta correctly is picking the first and
second-place finishers in the right order. The trifecta adds another dimension
by including the third-place horse. In 22 years of Breeders’ Cup action, 150
exactas and 92 trifectas have been offered. The average $2 exacta has returned
$218. The average $1 trifecta payoff has been more than $1,340.
“There is so much value in every pool even with the favorites involved. You
only have to be right in one race on Breeders’ Cup day to turn a nice profit,”
explained Ken Kirchner, NTRA Senior Vice President of Product Development.
Over the years 58 favorites have reached the winner’s circle, a healthy
36-percent success rate.
Odds-on Analysis
There have been 20 exactas involving an odds-on favorite who finished first
or second. The average payoff was $39. Consider that an odds-on horse is more
likely to win as to run second.
The average $1 trifecta payoff has been $247 when an odds-on runner has
finished in the money. The high payoff from the 10 occurrences was $644.10 in
the 1996 Classic when Cigar at odds of 3-5 finished third.
Field Size
As one might expect, field size can have a significant bearing on the exotic
payoffs. Since there have been so many full fields over the past few years, I
used nine horses as the cutoff for this analysis. There have been 39 Breeders’
Cup events with nine or fewer betting interests. The average exacta has returned
$127. The average trifecta has returned $733. Winning favorites have scored 14
times for a 35.9 percent rate.
There have been many more races with at least 10 betting interests, 114 in
fact. The average exacta has returned a healthy $250, while the average trifecta
has returned $1,589. Winning favorites have scored 38 times for exactly one out
of three races, slightly less than the overall average.
Longshots are Plentiful
From the 161 Breeders Cup races to date, a longshot at odds of 20-1 or
higher has placed first or second 48 times. That’s a lot of races – nearly 30
percent of all the Breeders’ Cups.
If you were lucky enough to hit the exacta involving one of these longshots,
on average, you would have received $481 for every $2 wagered.
Ultra Pick-6
In two of the last seven years, there were single winners of the Ultra
Pick-6, paying $3.1 and 2.7 million, respectively. Twice during the last seven
years, there were no correct six-of-six winners. So, in four of the past seven
years, a horseplayer had the potential to become a millionaire by hitting the
six consecutive winners that made up the Ultra Pick-6.
Last year, more than $4.5 million was wagered into the Pick-6 pool. Despite
the favorite winning the last leg, no one correctly had all six winners. The
pick-5 consolation returned a staggering $90,325.
In 2004 the Ultra Pick 6 also produced no perfect tickets from a pool of $4.6
million, but 61 tickets that contained 5 winners paid $56,149 each. The
AmericaTab Pick-6 Players’ Pool took down this consolation five times for a
$280,748 pre-tax return. The Players’ Pool was a unique concept introduced
online that year in which account wagering members could pool their resources
(minimum contribution of $10) into one large ticket. BrisBET.com is one of the
only account wagering sites that allows horseplayers to be a part of this
exciting opportunity.
Whether you’re part of the Players’ Pool, joining forces with friends, or
wagering on your own, the Ultra Pick-6 is an opportunity for a huge score that’s
hard to pass up.
Trifecta and Superfecta Strategies
As we’ve seen from the exotics study, there is great potential to taking
down a big payoff with each and every Breeders’ Cup race. Instead of spreading
your money around – $15 here, $25 there – take a good swing at one or two races
on the card. Why spread $200 across the entire card, when you can take two $100
swings at your best plays on the day?
Begin by identifying one or two key horses and the must-use runners
underneath. With the trifecta, you can key one horse over six runners at a cost
of only $30. Or, you can wheel two horses (one must win) over six horses, which
of course would include the top two, for only $40. Another variation would
include going deep in the third tier. Key one horse over the five other
contenders and use ALL in the third slot. Based on a 14-horse field, that’s a
$60 wager. You could use the “key” horse in the second slot, putting the five
runners on top, for an additional $60. Below are the examples just discussed:
#1 keyed over #2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 = $30
#1, 2 with #1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 with #1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 = $40
#1 with #2, 3, 4, 5, 6 with ALL = $60
#2, 3, 4, 5, 6 with #1 with ALL = $60
Here is a hypothetical superfecta strategy at a reasonable cost:
#1 with #2, 3, 4 with #2, 3, 4, 5, 6 with #2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 = $72
One of the best reasons to play the superfecta, given this type of bankroll,
is if you have a strong opinion on the race shape and who the race will set up
for. Maybe there is a ton of early speed and you expect a pace meltdown.
Obviously, your focus then would be on the best closers to fill the top spots of
your ticket. This could represent a huge wagering edge, because on most people’s
tickets, the late runners would typically be on the bottom rungs of the
superfecta partwheel.
Of course, there are plenty of ways to play the trifecta and superfecta. By
concentrating on one or two prime opportunities, you’ll have the time to come up
with the correct wagering strategy and increase your chances of winning.
Best of luck on racing’s greatest day!
— Rich Nilsen is a four-time qualifier to Las Vegas and has also
captained the BrisBET.com Pick-6 Players’ Pool which has gross winnings of over
$680,000 since it began with Breeders’ Cup 2004. The pool is now open at
BrisBET.com and advance wagering on the entire card begins this Friday.