Classic Diary

CLASSIC DIARY

NOVEMBER 2, 2006

by James Scully

Bernardini is the probable favortie for the Classic (Joseph DiOrio/Horsephotos.com) Saturday’s $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) will feature the top two older horses in training, LAVA MAN (Slew City Slew) and INVASOR (Arg) (Candy Stripes), but everybody is anxious to see how BERNARDINI (A.P. Indy) performs. The Classic is Thoroughbred racing’s biggest dirt race. The 1 1/4-mile event has been the site of many memorable performances. Luminaries such as Ghostzapper, Cigar, Alysheba and Skip Away showcased their skills with convincing victories. We’ve been treated to terrific stretch battles between Sunday Silence-Easy Goer, Ferdinand-Alysheba and Tiznow-Giant’s Causeway and Tiznow-Sakhee over the past 22 years. And Bernardini is set to prove his worth at Churchill Downs. If previous form is an indicator, Bernardini should roll. He’s won his last six starts by a combined 40 lengths, including smashing scores in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) and Travers S. (G1), and the three-year-old colt has earned overwhelming BRIS Speed ratings of 116, 114, 111 (twice) and 110 in his last five outings. Bernardini has been in a stratosphere all to himself so far, but he’s also had everything his own way. In the Preakness S. (G1), Sweetnorthernsaint (Sweetsouthernsaint) threw in the towel leaving the far turn, allowing Bernardini to romp home unopposed. In the Jim Dandy (G2) and Travers, Bernardini led all the way on a clear lead. In the Gold Cup, he rated behind Wanderin Boy (Seeking the Gold) before easily putting away that overmatched rival at the top of the stretch.

It won’t be that easy on Saturday.

Bernardini figures to be tested for the first time since his career debut in
January. There is a lot of speed around him in post 3, and the rest of the field
will all be gunning for him. Nobody knows how he’ll respond, but he’s still the
best horse in the field. I’ll be rooting for the terrific colt.

SUN KING (Charismatic) has the best chance for an upset. A multiple Grade 2
winner, the Nick Zito-trained colt earned his lone victory this season when
capturing the seven-furlong Commonwealth Breeders’ Cup S. (G2) in April, but
he’s a distance specialist with the pedigree to handle 10 furlongs.

The four-year-old colt was an unlucky second in the 1 1/8-mile Whitney H.
(G1), missing by a nose to Invasor, and he closed well to be third in the
Woodward S. (G1) over a speed-favoring Saratoga track most recently.

The outside post (13) won’t hurt him with the long run to the first turn, and
Sun King looks like the best closer in the field in my estimate. I’ll use him
mainly underneath in the exotics, but I’ll include him in some multi-race wagers
and bet him on top of Bernardini in an exacta saver.

DAVID JUNIOR (Pleasant Tap) drew a good post (7) and is a huge threat for the
top three if he takes to the dirt. A multiple Group 1 winner in Europe, the
four-year-old colt relishes the 1 1/4-mile distance and owns a strong finishing
kick. No horse has won the Classic off a lengthy layoff, so the 119-day rest is
a concern, but trainer Brian Meehan is very adept with runners off the shelf.
David Junior will have plenty of pace to set up his late run.

PERFECT DRIFT (Dynaformer) is another longshot to consider. The veteran
gelding loves Churchill Downs, winning the 2003 Stephen Foster H. (G1) over
Horse of the Year Mineshaft, and he tuned up for this year’s Classic with a
solid runner-up effort over the Polytrack at Turfway Park. He’s got plenty of
experience at this level, finishing fourth in the 2004 Classic and third in
last year’s event, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in the mix during the
stretch drive.