HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
NOVEMBER 3, 2006
by Dick Powell
Be careful what you wish for. You might just get it.
Everyone claims they want full fields and competitive racing. Well, now you
got it. This year’s Breeders’ Cup is chock full of full fields and competitive
races. Good luck. Let me know how you make out.
I go into Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup at Churchill Downs with great trepidation.
As many overlays as there will be, there will also be many other overlaid
horses that you have to beat. It sounds great when you hear people say, “Where
else can you get 8-1 on a Grade 1 stakes winner,” but what you don’t hear is the
reason the Grade 1 stakes winner is 8-1 is that there are four other Grade 1
stakes winners in the race.
My strategy for Saturday is to play more combinations with less money. In
other words, I’ll play twice as many combinations for half the money. Even with
strong favorites, the size of the fields and the resulting traffic problems will
force me to spread out.
It used to be a good handicapping angle to look for horses that came out of
races in big fields and give them an edge over horses that came out of races
with small fields. But with today’s strange, new world of trainers rarely
running their best horses, it’s hard to find horses, at least those racing on
dirt, that are coming out of races with big fields.
The long-range forecast for Saturday looks like a dry main track and a turf
course with give to it. That said, let’s get to work.
JUVENILE FILLIES (G1)
1st — #1 DREAMING OF ANNA (Rahy) was a sharp winner in her turf debut going short
in very fast time then won going a mile against males at Woodbine in a Canadian
Grade 3.
She has trained brilliantly since then and draws the rail.
2nd — #3 Cash Included (Include) broke her maiden second time out going six
furlongs at Del Mar then came back to win the Oak Leaf S. (G1) from post 10 in her
two-turn debut with first-time Lasix. Draws perfectly with Corey Nakatani.
3rd — #10 Her Majesty (Giant’s Causeway) might have been my top selection but the draw
hurts, especially with the gate problems she showed in her two starts. Ran great
in the Alcibiades S. (G2) from post 13 and gets blinkers and Lasix, but what if she
breaks poorly again?
4th — #12 Appealing Zophie (Successful Appeal) drew poorly and has a pedigree
tilted toward speed, but she was up against a pronounced anti-speed bias last
out.
JUVENILE (G1)
1st — #6 PRINCIPLE SECRET (Sea of Secrets) overcame a disastrous start to win the
Best Pal S. (G2) at Del Mar going short then came back to just miss in his two-turn debut
in the Norfolk Breeders’ Cup S. (G2) when used hard on the lead. Doesn’t have to be on the lead
but has enough gate speed to stay out of trouble.
2nd — #7 Great Hunter (Aptitude) was no match for top choice in the Best Pal but won
the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) on the Polytrack at Keeneland last out in his
two-turn debut.
3rd — #10 Pegasus Wind (Fusaichi Pegasus) showed high speed in the Champagne S. (G1)
before tiring and gets first Lasix here. Drew poorly but with his size it won’t
hurt that much if he is a little wide.
4th — #3 Scat Daddy (Johannesburg) won the Champagne when the race fell into his
lap but drew well here for the Todd Pletcher juggernaut.
FILLY AND MARE TURF (G1)
1st — #10 GERMANCE (Silver Hawk), a soft-turf specialist, was a Group 1 winner in
France under similar conditions. She was wiped out at the start in the Queen
Elizabeth II Invitational Challenge Cup
S. (G1) at Keeneland last out and then was extremely wide throughout behind a slow
pace. Post won’t matter here and she gets a major rider switch to Christophe
Soumillon.
2nd — #2 Ouija Board (GB) (Cape Cross [Ire]) has had a long year facing mostly male
competition. Drops seven pounds off her last start, but I just feel that the
ratio between her short odds and chance that she is over the top makes her a bet
against.
3rd — #5 Honey Ryder (Lasting Approval), a proven three-turn turf mare, is as game as they
come and can run over any ground.
4th — #4 Film Maker (Dynaformer) was stuck outside a slow pace last out, and she’ll
appreciate the longer distance.
SPRINT (G1)
1st — #4 HENNY HUGHES (Hennessy) comes in off three stakes wins, two of them two
Grade 1s,
the last against older horses on a windy day that was better than it looked.
Draws inside of some of the pure speedballs so John Velazquez has to gently take him
back to avoid a speed duel.
2nd — #11 Siren Lure (Joyeux Danseur) has the best late kick of the contenders in
here and the pace may set it up for him.
3rd — #8 Pomeroy (Boundary) has pointed for this race all year and is right on
target. Best races have been at Saratoga but did run well here in his lone start
over the track last year.
4th — #13 Attila’s Storm (Forest Wildcat), a blazing-fast speedball breaking from the
outside, could make things interesting as he makes his way over to the rail.
MILE (G1)
1st — #9 ROB ROY (Lear Fan) is a top-class miler who ran into a monster last out going ten
furlongs but still beat Hurricane Run (Ire) (Montjeu [Ire]). He gets Lasix and Ramon
Dominguez, and his best races have been with give in the ground.
2nd — #8 Badge of Silver (Silver Deputy) would love to see Prado open up five
lengths and dare them to catch him. Has the best speed of the contenders and is
training up a storm for Bobby Frankel.
3rd — #1 Ad Valorem (Danzig) rallied furiously last out at Woodbine. He showed he
can run on the pace in this race last year so Jamie Spencer should have enough
speed under him to avoid the big traffic jam on the first turn.
4th — #3 Araafa (Ire) (Mull of Kintyre) is a multiple Group 1 winner in Europe,
one of those coming on soft turf. He draws inside today with Velazquez and first-time
Lasix.
DISTAFF (G1)
1st — #6 SPUN SUGAR’s (Awesome Again) sire won the Classic (G1) here, and when you
isolate her races on dirt going two turns, she’s as good as anyone in here. Drew
well and should be ready for a big effort in second start off a layoff.
2nd — #9 Pool Land (Silver Deputy), a speedy filly, is lightly raced and has the
spacing coming into here that Pletcher likes. Dangerous off her last four starts
and is right there if she runs back to her recent efforts.
3rd — #14 Balletto’s (UAE) (Timber Country) post is brutal, but there is enough speed in
here to stretch the field out and avoid bunching up. Can’t leave out of exotics
but even when she runs her best she comes up short.
4th — #7 Fleet Indian (Indian Charlie) is undefeated in 2006 off six starts,
and she
showed a new dimension last out which she is going to need today.
TURF (G1)
1st — #9 RED ROCKS (Ire) (Galileo [Ire]), a late-developing three-year-old by
an emerging sire, was a good second behind Rail Link (Dansili [GB]) at this distance in fast
time in July. He gets first-time Lasix and should love the give in the ground
here.
2nd — #7 Hurricane Run (Montjeu [Ire]) is not the same horse he was last year, but has faced
nothing but the best this year. His fourth in the Prix de l’Arc de Troimphe
(Fr-G1) was better than it looked
(run in 2:26 and not 2:31 3/5 as all past performances indicate) and was beaten
last out at shorter distance than he likes.
3rd — #10 English Channel (Smart Strike) has a Grade 1 win over the course and
comes in here in peak form for Pletcher.
4th — #6 Cacique (Ire) (Danehill) is an amazingly bred horse who keeps getting better, but has never
run this far before.
CLASSIC (G1)
1st — #3 BERNARDINI (A.P. Indy). I can’t knock him, even at the price.
Finishes his races with a lot of gas in the tank. Has tactical speed to avoid traffic but
doesn’t have to be on the lead as he showed in the Preakness S. (G1). Nothing not
to like and if he wins this, he is in the discussion of all-time great
three-year-olds.
2nd — #7 David Junior (Pleasant Tap). The value is in the second hole, and this is a
three-time Group 1 winner that has been pointed for this race since 10 furlongs
is his best distance. Has a pedigree that says he’ll handle main track.
3rd — #11 Invasor’s (Arg) (Candy Stripes) only loss was to the great Discreet
Cat
(Forestry), who would probably have been the second choice in here. Three straight
Grade
1 wins since coming to America, but I am not that impressed with who he has
beaten here.
4th — #8 Lava Man (Slew City Slew) is hard to go against off four Grade 1 wins at the
distance, but has never shown an ability to take his show on the road.