HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
NOVEMBER 10, 2006
by Dick Powell
Breeders’ Cup XXIII is over and I was lucky to get out on the day. I looked
into the abyss and RED ROCKS (Ire) (Galileo [Ire]) pulled me out of what was
looking like an ugly day.
One thing about making public picks is you have to be fearless. If you are
afraid of looking bad and avoid the risk of any of your choices running up the
track, you are in the wrong business. For me, public handicapping is not about
batting average; it’s about picking horses that return enough pari-mutuelly to
make money.
And Breeders’ Cup is always the toughest day since there is a great chance of
having a bad day due to the full fields and competitive racing. It’s not for the
faint of heart, but at least there’s a good risk/reward ratio.
Saturday started out well when DREAMING OF ANNA (Rahy) went gate to wire in
the Juvenile Fillies (G1) under a heady ride from Rene Douglas. Sometimes
breaking from post 1 can be a disadvantage against a big field, but Douglas won
the race at the start when he broke her on top and then was able to immediately
get her to relax. Expected early challenges from Appealing Zophie (Successful
Appeal) and Lilly Carson (Carson City) never really materialized so Dreaming of
Anna was getting a dream trip.
Garrett Gomez had Octave (Unbridled’s Song) in perfect striking position at
the top of the stretch but just when it looked like he might get to the leader,
Douglas let it out another notch and Dreaming of Anna spurted away to a 1
1/2-length win. Octave was second and Cotton Blossom (Broken Vow) was a wide
third. They should all be so logical.
In the Juvenile (G1), we had a great race to the top of the stretch with no
fewer than six horses looking like they could win. But, a funny thing happened
turning for home. Cal (Moses) Borel had STREET SENSE (Street Cry [Ire]) in a
drive and was making up ground with every stride. The only problem was there was
nowhere to go as he stayed on the rail.
Without any hesitation, Borel kept his foot to the gas pedal, hoping for a
miracle and suddenly it happened. The seas parted and there was just enough room
down on the rail for Street Sense to go through without losing any momentum. In
the blink of an eye, the Juvenile was over as Street Sense pulled away to a
10-length victory over Circular Quay (Thunder Gulch), who rallied wide for
second, with Great Hunter (Aptitude) in third.
If the hole never materialized, Borel would have been forced to slam on the
brakes or clip heels with the horses in front of him. It was a daring ride, but
it paid off.
The Filly and Mare Turf (G1) was up next and the betting pubic made the great
OUIJA BOARD (GB) (Cape Cross [Ire]) the 7-5 favorite. Winner of the 2004 Filly &
Mare Turf and runner-up last year, Ouija Board was having another fantastic
season competing against mostly male competition in Dubai, Hong Kong, England,
Ireland and now back in America.
The champ looked great on her way to the gate, but the same cannot be said
about my upset selection Germance (Silver Hawk) who came out on the track
looking like she had already run the race. Something had spooked her and her
blood vessels were already open and pumping in the post parade. This was not the
same filly that ran so well in the Queen Elizabeth II Invitational Challenge Cup
(G1) at Keeneland last month. It was too crowded to cancel my bet so I had to
grin and bear it.
Frankie Dettori gave Ouija Board a faultless ride, keeping her out of trouble
and saving energy until he needed to ask her for it. Even so, she engaged the
leaders nearing the eighth pole on her own. Dettori shook the reins with a
furlong to go and the response was immediate. Ouija Board won by 2 1/4 lengths
over arch rival Film Maker (Dynaformer) with Honey Ryder (Lasting Approval)
third.
After the race, Dettori waved to everyone in the crowd. I am not
exaggerating. If he didn’t wave to you, he circled Ouija Board back around to
take another shot. After holding up the winner’s circle ceremony, he returned to
it and gave his much-anticipated flying dismount to the delight of the crowd.
The guy is a showman and one of the world’s great riders.
Ouija Board now has earnings close to $5.8 million and more than $2.6 million
this year alone. Believe it or not, she might not be the best racemare in
training this year. Pride (Peintre Celebre) has had a huge year in Europe with a
victory over last year’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (Fr-G1) winner HURRICANE RUN
(Ire) (Montjeu [Ire]) in the Grand Prix de Saint Cloud (Fr-G1) then a fantastic
second in this year’s Arc when she beat Deep Impact (Sunday Silence), Hurricane
Run and last year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) winner Shirocco (Ger) (Monsun).
Pride came back 13 days after the Arc to win the Champion S. (Eng-G1) at
Newmarket over Hurricane Run again. It will be interesting to see who is named
champion mare in Europe this year.
By the way, Ouija Board is scheduled to run next in the Japan Cup (G1) in two
weeks where she is expected to meet Deep Impact, whose form got a major boost
this week when DELTA BLUES (Dance in the Dark) — beaten by Deep Impact by 14
lengths in the Tenno Sho Spring (Jpn-G1) in April — led a Japanese sweep of the
Melbourne Cup (Aus-G1). Maybe I can get some of my money back from my premature bets
on Deep Impact in the Arc if the American betting public stays with Ouija Board.
The Sprint (G1) was everything everyone thought it would be. Roughly run as
usual, Corey Nakatani used THOR’S ECHO’s (Swiss Yodeler) natural speed to stay
out of trouble, track the early leaders, and pull out to an easy four-length win
over longshots Friendly Island (Crafty Friend) and Nightmare Affair (Out of
Place). With Thor’s Echo at 15-1, the superfecta came back more than $113K.
Henny Hughes (Hennessy) was off a step slow and could not keep up when the
outside horses made their way over. He never looked like he could grab a hold of
the track and there was no response on the far turn when it looked like he might
be able to catch up to the leaders. Johnny Velazquez wisely eased up on him and
he finished dead last.
Marty Wolfson’s Pomeroy (Boundary) had a nightmare trip in the Sprint, almost
going down when he clipped heels. Wolfson’s disappointment was about to change
in the Mile (G1) with old timer MIESQUE’S APPROVAL (Miesque’s Son). Sent off at
24-1 odds even though he had a win over the course and distance in fast time
this year, he stormed down the middle of the track with Eddie Castro to win
going away. A year ago he was running in a $50,000 claimer at Aqueduct, but
since entering the Wolfson barn he stays far back early and makes one big run.
Six horses were in the photo for second with Aragorn (Ire) (Giant’s Causeway)
earning the place and Badge of Silver (Silver Deputy) holding on for third after
chasing the pace. Rob Roy (Lear Fan) made a belated rally from dead last to fall
just short of second.
The longshot parade continued in the Distaff (G1) when ROUND POND (Awesome
Again) was given a rail-skimming ride from Edgar Prado to pull off the upset at
14-1. Fleet Indian (Indian Charlie), the 27-10 favorite, was pulled up on the
far turn after suffering a soft-tissue injury and Pine Island (Arch), the 29-10
second choice, had to be euthanized after breaking down in the run down the
backstretch.
A very ugly race and an eerie situation as two horses left in ambulances
while Edgar Prado and Michael Matz of BARBARO (Dynaformer) fame won it. A very
rough stretch run saw Asi Siempre (El Prado [Ire]) disqualified from second and
placed fourth behind Balletto (UAE) (Timber Country) whom she interfered with in
the stretch.
The Turf (G1) saw a field of 11 go postward and a few horses probably lost
their race before they got into the starting gate. Scorpion (Ire) (Montjeu
[Ire]) was very hot in the walking ring and never really relaxed during the race
for Mick Kinane. You may not have seen it in ESPN’s coverage, but Hurricane Run
almost unseated rider Christophe Soumillon and tried to run off while going in
between horses on the track. It was a cool day and maybe he was feeling good,
but it wasn’t what you want to see from an experienced traveler.
Dettori won the Filly and Mare Turf by keeping Ouija Board out of trouble
while racing in company, but he kept it simple aboard RED ROCKS in the Turf. He
took the improving three-year-old, who had not yet won a graded stakes, near the
back of the field and bided his time. The early pace over a turf course that was
a lot firmer than I expected was good and entering the far turn Red Rocks was
still in ninth place.
Dettori swung him wide as the field bunched up and was carried even farther
out when Hurricane Run veered out into him midway around the far turn. Red
Rocks, who was a good second in fast time this summer behind Arc winner Rail
Link (Dansili [GB]), continued on with his run and nearing the eighth-pole he
took the lead and braced for a late challenge.
The only one coming was the game seven-year-old gelding Better Talk Now (Talkin
Man), who won this race in 2004. Ramon Dominguez had him in a furious drive and
looked like he might catch Red Rocks, but the younger horse held on by a half
length, keying a $450 exacta. English Channel (Smart Strike) was a wide third.
It was the second consecutive Pick 3 that paid more than $9,000.
Finally, with the sun going down fast and the weather cooling off, the horses
came out on the track for the Classic (G1). The betting public couldn’t get
enough of Bernardini (A.P. Indy), making him the 11-10 favorite. The next two
choices were Lava Man (Slew City Slew) at 6-1 and INVASOR (Arg) (Candy Stripes)
at 67-10.
Brother Derek (Benchmark) broke well from the rail and Alex Solis was able to
make the lead in the run by the stands for the first time. Lawyer Ron (Langfuhr),
who all we heard was how relaxed he had become in his training, was throwing his
head around like a bronco and he took up the chase with Lava Man, who broke
poorly and then wound up wide.
Bernardini was farther back than his recent races and running between horses
while in fifth place. Javier Castellano was busier than normal aboard him and
down the backstretch it looked like he was in trouble.
But on the far turn, Bernardini showed his customary turn of foot as he
cruised up on the outside to take the lead with a quarter-mile to go. With clear
sailing in a bulky field, there was no reason for Castellano, who took a hard
fall aboard Pine Island two races earlier, to move when he did. It looked like
Bernardini was either going to make history with a dominating victory or be in
trouble in the deep stretch.
All would have been fine for Bernardini except that Invasor was rallying
furiously on the outside with 18-year-old phenom Fernando Jara. Bernardini began
to flatten out and Invasor was making up ground with every stride. The
Argentine-bred collared Bernardini at the sixteenth-pole and went on to a length
win. Bernardini held for second and Premium Tap (Pleasant Tap) was a one-paced
third. Giacomo (Holy Bull) rallied from far back to nail Brother Derek to
complete the $8,786 superfecta.
It was a tremendous sporting gesture from the Maktoum family as Sheikh Hamdan
beat out Sheikh Mohammed for the top spot. With Bernardini’s future stallion
value at stake, they could have easily held out Invasor and increased
Bernardini’s chances of winning the Classic. But, they knocked heads and gave us
a memorable finish to Breeders’ Cup XXIII.
*****
Speaking of the ruling family of the United Arab Emirates, three Breeders’
Cup winners raced in Dubai in March. Despite the media constantly carping about
some alleged jinx, horses that go over there continue to run well around the
world. And to show you how tough their racing is, none of Saturday’s winners won
in Dubai.
The biggest winner of the day may have been Polytrack. With heavy rain on
Wednesday, the Churchill main track was very wet and choppy for training on
Thursday morning. It dried out on Friday and was listed as “fast” for Saturday.
But, as you can see from reading the charts of the main track, the best
footing for most of the day was down on the inside. With big fields, that means
that a lot of quality horses had to run on the worst part of the track. There’s
no excuse for racing biggest day to be contested on less-than-fair conditions.
It would be like a pass-happy football team having to play the Super Bowl in a
quagmire against a run-happy team.
Besides providing a safe and predictable racing surface, Polytrack is groomed
consistently each day before the races. The track superintendent plays a much
lesser role once the races begin and that is all right with me.