11/2/06
Last updated: 11/1/06 8:17 PM
JUVENILE DIARY
NOVEMBER 1, 2006
by Tom Joyce
This will be the last installment of the Juvenile and Juvenile Fillies Diary.
I mentioned some contenders in the most recent editions, and not much has
changed since then. Perhaps the best advice I can give is to keep an open mind
and remain flexible. Some horses will be overbet and others will offer value.
One should look for attractive overlays and adjust accordingly.
JUVENILE:
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Circular Quay’s (outside) only loss came last out in the Breeders’ Futurity
(Debra Kral/Horsephotos.com) |
As you would expect, the Juvenile (G1) is a very competitive race. The two
colts trained by Todd Pletcher — CIRCULAR QUAY (Thunder Gulch) and SCAT DADDY
(Johannesburg) — are nearly impossible to separate, and both are primary
contenders. STREET SENSE (Street Cry [Ire]) is my sleeper.
The dark bay colt lost considerable ground before finishing a
close third in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland. To a lesser extent, I
like the speedy PEGASUS WIND (Fusaichi Pegasus) as well as California invaders
STORMELLO (Stormy Atlantic), GREAT HUNTER (Aptitude) and PRINCIPLE SECRET (Sea
of Secrets). Underneath those, the other Pletcher trainee, KING OF THE ROXY (Littleexpectations),
and the Nick Zito-trained C P WEST (Came Home), could crash the vertical
exotics.
1st — Circular Quay rates the edge because of his two-for-two record on the
main track at Churchill. The pint-size chestnut has an effective
come-from-behind running style and was a gritty second to Great Hunter in the Breeders’ Futurity. That was his first start around two turns
and his first start on Polytrack. Circular Quay figures to move forward in his
second start around two turns and a return to the dirt. On a fast track, he
should be a formidable foe.
2nd — Scat Daddy won the Sanford S. (G2) with a late burst of speed, then
finished a troubled second to the one above in the Hopeful. He exits a very
impressive victory over the highly regarded Nobiz Like Shobiz (Albert the Great)
in the Champagne S. (G1) on a cuppy track at Belmont. The dark bay is more physically imposing than his stablemate and reportedly
worked well earlier this week. He retains first-call rider John Velazquez.
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3rd — Street Sense got hung wide around both turns, surged to the lead in
upper stretch, then finished gamely, beaten just 1 3/4 lengths, in the Breeders’
Futurity. The Carl Nafzger trainee has made an excellent impression in the
mornings and appears to be coming to hand at the right time. He is an excellent
price play at anything close to his morning-line odds.
Longshot — Pegasus Wind is a scary front runner trained by D. Wayne
Lukas, who will be shooting for his sixth victory in the Juvenile. The bay colt
set the early pace while battling a strong headwind, spurted clear around the
turn, then held on determinedly for third, beaten just 1 1/4 lengths, in the
Champagne. He could be very difficult to catch on a speed-favoring track.
JUVENILE FILLIES:
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Dreaming of Anna beat the boys last out on the turf
(Lauren Pomeroy/Horsephotos.com) |
Many racing analysts have proclaimed that the Juvenile Fillies (G1) is the
most wide-open race on the Breeders’ Cup card. I beg to differ. To me, DREAMING
OF ANNA (Rahy) is a standout. Underneath her, I like COTTON BLOSSOM (Broken Vow)
and HER MAJESTY (Giant’s Causeway), followed by CASH INCLUDED (Include) and
APPEALING ZOPHIE (Successful Appeal), and finally OCTAVE (Unbridled’s Song) and
BEL AIR BEAUTY (Smart Strike).
1st — I’ve seen some pretty nice juvenile fillies in my time, but
Dreaming of Anna is special. In her second start, she did something remarkable
for a two-year-old filly — she shattered a seven-year-old course record. In her
most recent outing, she crushed Marcavelly
(Johannesburg) in the grassy Summer S. (Can-G3) at Woodbine under nothing more
than a hand ride, finishing her final quarter-mile in :23. Trainer Wayne
Catalano said recently that she is twice as good now than she was a month ago. I expect nothing less than a
daylight victory.
2nd — Cotton Blossom ran better than her running line indicates in
the Alcibiades S. (G2) at Keeneland. The big bay was hung three-wide around the
first turn, pressed three-wide down the backstretch, bid three-wide around the
second turn, was bumped by the winner near the three-sixteenths pole, then held
on well for fourth, beaten 3 1/4 lengths. She has some upset potential.
3rd — Her Majesty made a sweeping move around the second turn before
nosing out Cotton Blossom for third in the Alcibiades. The Patrick Biancone
pupil recently outworked five-year-old Grade 2 winner Ball Four (Grand Slam)
prior to his runner-up effort in the Fayette S. (G3) and could be a sleeper for
the exotics.
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Longshots — Spinaway
S. (G1) heroine Appealing Zophie set the pace against the bias before finishing
a respectable sixth, beaten 4 1/2 lengths, in the Alcibiades. She could go a
long way on the front end. Octave closed determinedly along the rail, took the
lead in the shadow of the wire, then just missed, finishing a dead-heat second
with stablemate Featherbed (Smart Strike) in the Matron S. (G1). She reportedly
has been training well and likely will go postward at attractive odds.