HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
DECEMBER 29, 2006
by Dick Powell
Santa Anita kicked off its 70th season of racing with its traditional
day-after-Christmas opening before 32,931 fans. The large crowd was treated to a
terrific day of racing highlighted by the Malibu S. (G1) for three year olds
going seven furlongs.
A field of 12 faced the starter with four horses taking most of the betting
money. Brother Derek (Benchmark) was the 5-2 favorite off a stellar record over
the Santa Anita main track and a good effort last out in the Breeders’ Cup
Classic (G1). He was a question mark turning back to seven furlongs but had the
services of new rider Garrett Gomez, who had already won four races on the card.
Second in the wagering was Midnight Lute (Real Quiet), winner of three of
four lifetime starts, including the Perryville S. (G3) at Keeneland last out in
a long sprint. Trained by Bob Baffert, the dark bay showed a troubling tendency
to break slowly, but his workout pattern coming into the Malibu was strong even
by Baffert standards.
The third wagering choice was Arson Squad (Brahms), who earlier this year won the
nine-furlong Swaps Breeders’ Cup S. (G2) at Hollywood Park and captured a very
fast allowance sprint last out over the track. Another horse for the course, he
was working bullets for Bruce Headley and wound up with the riding services of
Brother Derek’s regular rider, Alex Solis.
The other entrant who was in single-digit odds was LATENT HEAT (Maria’s Mon)
for Bobby Frankel and Edgar Prado. He was certainly on the radar screen last
year for the classics, but Frankel kept him going short until July, when he ran
second at Monmouth in his two-turn debut. After two more wins in long sprints,
he tired badly in his last out at Keeneland in the Perryville over the Polytrack.
Latent Heat had shown an ability to run well fresh so his 74 days
off since his last start was a blessing. With Prado coming cross country to ride
and a series of strong workouts, he looked especially appealing at odds of
57-10.
I wound up keying Spring at Last (Silver Deputy), who was bet down to 17-1
after being 23-1 for much of the betting. The sophomore drew the far outside,
was carrying three more pounds than originally assigned as Corey Nakatani could
not make 115 pounds and was making his graded debut.
Despite all that, Spring at Last’s last start was a sensational win at
Aqueduct going a mile in 1:33 and change where he earned a huge BRIS Speed
figure of 109. Now in California with Doug O’Neill, he had the look of a
lightly-raced colt who could still be improving.
At the start, Latent Heat broke well from his outside post and Prado cleverly
reined him in without a fight. Latent Heat settled into third place while clear
on the outside behind pacesetters Sailors Sunset (Petionville) and Da Stoops
(Distorted Humor). That pair covered the first quarter in :22.33 and the half in
:45.08, relatively mild fractions for a Grade 1 sprint.
With the slow pace and big field, things got pretty crowded around the far
turn and Brother Derek not only could not find any room but was racing
uncomfortably while in traffic. Usually in front going two turns, he was in
midpack with horses all around him and nowhere to go.
Nakatani had Spring at Last on the far outside from post 12 and began to make
up ground with three furlongs to go. Prado made his move with Latent Heat
turning for home and with the speed collapsing and Brother Derek having no place
to go, the race was over. Spring at Last was carried wide at the top of the
stretch and was still able to gamely get second, completing the $81.10 exacta
($1).
One reason why Bobby Frankel is in the Hall of Fame is that he has owners who
have patience and do not force him to run horses before they are ready. Frankel
backed off Latent Heat after running third to Brother Derek in the Santa
Catalina S. (G2) in March and skipped the Triple Crown races. The colt has been
given time to grow and mature, and he’s now a Grade 1 stakes winner for
owner/breeder Juddmonte Farms.
Like most Juddmonte homebreds, Latent Heat has a deep pedigree. His dam,
True Flare (Capote), was a stakes winner in France at two and three, and was
then a multiple Grade 2 winner in the United States at three. Latent Heat is her
fourth registered foal to race and her second foal, Art Master (Royal Academy),
was undefeated in four starts in France in 2004 and 2005, winning Group 3 events
at ages three and four.
True Flare is a sister to five other stakes winners, four of whom were graded
winners. With his second dam sired by Mr. Prospector and third dam sired by
Buckpasser, Latent Heat’s female family traces back to Greentree Stables.
Despite Latent Heat’s strong female pedigree and his sire already producing a
Kentucky Derby (G1) winner in Monarchos, Frankel was uncertain as to where to
run Latent Heat next. The rest of the Strub Series is at two turns and Frankel
will probably skip it to keep his charge ready for an engagement on Memorial Day
in the Metropolitan H. (G1).
DEEP IMPACT (Sunday Silence) may have saved his best race for last when he
dominated the Arima Kinen (Jpn-G1) at Nakayama Race Course in Japan before
117,251 fans. The $2,915,970 Arima Kinen is the last big race on the Japanese
racing calendar and it was in this race last year that Deep Impact suffered his
first career loss when second to Heart’s Cry.
On Sunday, Yutaka Take took Deep Impact way back early behind a very fast
pace in the about 1 9/16-mile race. He began to pick up horses on the outside
with six furlongs to go and, nearing the top of the stretch, Take received an
electrifying response when asking his mount to run.
Deep Impact leveled off as he reached out to grab the firm turf and passed
the field with embarrassing ease. He covered his last 300 meters (almost three
furlongs) in :33.8 and his final time was 2:31.9. Left in his wake were five
Group 1 winners, including the top two finishers from this year’s Melbourne Cup
(Aus-G1).
Deep Impact now heads off to stud with a record of 14-12-1-0 and more than
$13 million in earnings. He had a great career and his lasting legacy will be
the wave of Japanese runners who will take on international competition in the
world’s major races. He single-handedly revived Japanese racing and breeding and
should take up the throne that his sire Sunday Silence left when he passed away
a few years ago.