Gulfstream Notebook

GULFSTREAM NOTEBOOK

JANUARY 24, 2008

by Steve Zacks

Week Three in Review

An event on Wednesday raises some questions about playing trainers who are

hot or (you think are) pointing to the meeting: Terri Pompay went on the list to

watch during the opening week after winning and running second with two starters. Last week, she won another. The two winners did not look that obvious to the public and

were both sent off at 10-1. Both had positive form indicators with close-up calls;

one was dropping and one was raised in class. On Wednesday, she ran Power of

Freedom (Red

Bullet), an out-of-form class dropper (no up-close calls and going from optional

to straight claimer) with a fast interim half-mile work and a New York rider

taking over. At 10-1, he would have been worth a "hot trainer" play perhaps, but

at even-money he hardly merited consideration  -- at least once the price was on the

board.

Trying to relate one prospect to other winners makes sense and if you know

something, or a lot of the trainer's modus operandi, then you have even more

reason to be attracted or to stay away. In any event, the odds board should

almost always be your guide. I looked at the horse, thought the fast work and

class drop signaled "for sale" and took a pass especially after looking at the

tote. At double-digit odds, I would have taken the flyer in spite of the

negatives.

Once the horse with the "hot trainer angle" was dismissed due to being overbet, the race became more interesting as a fishing expedition

because there was likely to be an overlay somewhere else if my assessment of the

surprising favorite proved correct. The race was a six-horse conditioned claimer

for two-time winners. When we looked at the board nearing post time, we noted

that there were only two prospects going off in double digits. The long shot was

hopelessly out of form and suspect on fast-track ratings; there was another

horse at 11-1, who was at least worth a look. GROUNDSKEEPER (Snow Ridge) was

shipping down from Suffolk Downs. The four-year-old colt had not raced in a couple

of months, and had a couple of modest works in the past month -- hardly a

recommendation for a player who hones in on current shape or condition as I

usually do. Trainer Collins has shipped in to win occasionally in the

past.

On closer examination and a check with someone who knows a little more about

Suffolk (a track I do not play or follow), I took a different viewpoint.

Firstly, the intent was most likely there. Why? Suffolk is one of the tracks

where the purses are lower than at Gulfstream, so the horse was likely shipped

in because he was in good order and had a serious chance win here. Saratoga

players will also know or should remember that every year several Suffolk-based

runners ship in to that premier meet and take home some or all of the money.

They are usually exiting the better allowance conditions. This colt had been up

close for three calls (at today's distance) in his last start, an open

allowance race route; today he was dropping in for a tag for the first time in

his career and running the distance of his two prior victories. He also had the

best last-race BRIS Pace figures and his best matched up with the best of the

rest. One can project an improved race when a horse that is in shape takes a

significant class drop, which he was doing.

So I think we have intent; I give the trainer the benefit of the doubt on

current condition after the short layoff; the horse has relevant ability to be

in the race and could improve with the drop, so if the price is right, the horse

is probably worth a speculative play. Groundskeeper broke alertly from the

outside to assume command, took pressure a couple of times during the running,

and then held his own to return $24.20. In all honesty, I would have missed this

play had it not been for the presence of the Pompay runner Power of Freedom in

the race. However, after finding reasons to dislike the horse I was looking at,

and considering that the horse, in my opinion, was overbet relative to his

merits, there was cause to look further.

Another thing to consider: at Gulfstream and usually at most tracks there are

a lot of races that "some horse has to win!" Most races have a winner! It is not

always a horse that stands out on paper but one that has a chance and when

things go right for him, he is in shape and can win.

There are several trainers who are having good early success and who do not

necessarily have high public profiles. Besides their winners, several have had

others run well and hit the board at decent odds. All one can ask for

from a traineris to have his horse ready and spotted reasonably! They do not

always have to win for you to have honed in on a live horse. F. Carlisi (2 wins), David Fawkes (4 wins),

Michael Jablow (2 wins), Joe Orseno (3 wins), Ed Plesa Jr. (3 wins), R.R. Root (2 wins), Ross Wolfendale (3 wins) and Kirk Ziadie (3 wins)

have all had success from limited starters; it might be worth giving extra

consideration to their starters if they seem reasonably spotted and the odds are

decent.

Interesting Stats for Week Three Winners

The following figures are taken

from my personal data base (occasional adjustments are made!) The first figures

are for this week's races. The following number in [square brackets] is the

figure for the meet to date.

Number of Races This Week: 54 races [158].

Winners: Ran Last At: Calder -- 29 [68]; Aqueduct -- 5 [17]; Churchill -- 2

[15]; Turfway -- 0 [5]; Gulfstream -- 7 [9].

Winners Stabled At: Gulfstream -- 21 [61]; Calder -- 22 [48]; Payson Park -- 0 [5]; Palm Beach

Downs -- 1 [7]; Palm Meadows- 10 [35].

Winners Days Since last Race: Within 14 days -- 6 [18]; 15-30 days -- 23 [47];

31-90days -- 21 [78]; 91+ days -- 1 [8]; first-time starters -- 3 [7].

Winners' Works: worked since last race -- 34 [111]; worked 6 furlongs

or farther -- 2 [10]; one work of at least 5 furlongs -- 16 [52]; worked within five

days -- 12 [41]; either six or seven days before the race -- 13 [37].

Winners In Shape: Using at least one up-close call in the preceding start as

a sign of being in shape -- 29 [99]; repeaters -- 3 [19].

Winners Running Style: Early (within two lengths at either or both of the

first two calls, sprint or route) turf -- 5 [14] of 22 [46]; early dirt -- 33 [78] of

66 and [106].

Winners Surface Changes: 8 [24]; off artificial surfaces -- 1 [6].

Winners: Class Changes: numbered -- 36 [98]; dropped -- 26 [64]; rose -- 10 [34]

(all 19 of the last-out winners rose in class!);

Winners Distance Changes: 19 [62]; shortened up -- 9 [35]; stretched out --10 [27] (a furlong or more and/or added or dropped a turn).

DAILY REVIEW WEDNESDAY (1/16)

The third week opened with a fast track, a firm turf and seven claiming

races. Six winners were Florida-based. Aqueduct, Suffolk and Woodbine sent in

one winner each.

Track Trends -- Dirt & Turf

The dirt seemed to favor up-close runners at all distances and one or two

turns. Horses were winning inside, off the rail and three and four wide. There

were several races with very fast early fractions and also with solid third

quarters in sprints, leading me to think that the track was fair; the horses and

their riders were also partially responsible for this trend.

On the turf, the rails were moved in to 48 feet. There were only two turf

races on the day; the two-turn event featured a hot pace, and the winner came

from the rear, encountered trouble with the drifting front runner and still

managed to get up late. The lone turf sprint was won up front by a first-time

starter.

Trainers and Jockeys of Note

Nine different trainers won races on the day; Kirk Ziadie scored his third

win of the meet and Michael Jablow his second.

Horses or Races of Interest

Normally if you pick a horse that encounters any significant trouble, you

will find every one else on the same bandwagon next time out. As noted above in

the weekly comment, sometimes it plays to go against these kinds when they are

overplayed.

NYUK NYUK NYUK (Mutakddim) could be a horse that prefers the dirt. His first

race on the dirt in some time saw him take pressure and then draw off. The

veteran always did like the dirt surface and when in shape has put good races

back to back in the past and could do so again. He was dropped to a new low and

if spotted reasonably next time out could turn in another top performance. He

ran a sub :45 half-mile and then put in a third quarter in :24.1 while drawing off.

DAILY REVIEW THURSDAY (1/17)

There were but two non-claiming events on the card which made it another

unexciting day at the races. There may have been at least one value play

-- Todd Pletcher's firster in Race 7, with the leading rider aboard.

Track Trends -- Dirt & Turf

Both the dirt and turf courses saw winners coming from up top and from the

back. The pace match-up of the races was probably the key to most of the

winners.

Trainers and Jockeys of Note

Pletcher added another to his leading total of eight, with a first-time

starter in Race 7. Wayne Catalano and Nick Zito each won for the fourth time.

John Velazquez rode that one and another to take his leading total to 17.

Jose Lezcano was the only other rider with two wins on the day. In my opinion, he deserves careful watching as he is riding extremely well by my standards. I

like to see a rider try to saving ground, and saving horse, something he has

been doing at every opportunity. He may be one to continue to watch as he is not

getting a lot of high-profile mounts or obvious favorites.

Pompay ran two more today and neither failed to produce anything at

all. They took some money, though not as much as Wednesday. That is enough to

take her off the watch list, which means that her horses must earn their way

onto the contender's list without any other benefits. (We give a trainer only a

couple of failures with possibly "live" runners, before they are taken off the

list).

Horses or Races of Interest

COMMENTATOR (Distorted Humor) set a new track record with a runaway win in

featured allowance race. He won by 14 and will probably be on most people's

watch list off that performance. There is no doubt that he is a wonderfully

talented horse who can wow you on the right day. In this opinion, he lacks the

class of a quality stakes horse rarely running his race when pressured or when

there is other speed in the race.

The early pace of this race was slow for the class. That made Commentator a

mortal lock both on paper and on the race track, when he went unchallenged in a

quarter of :23.98. Compliments to Johnny V for getting him to run that slowly

early and on an uncontested lead in this class! There have been a number of

runners that have been able to win races off slow early and fast late paces. The

track seems to be kind runners who race in that scenario. On that basis if his

next start is in a horse race against other real horses, he is a "play against"

especially if he is bet down as he figures to be. Should he be lone speed again

and on a speed-favoring surface, then that is a different case.

DAILY REVIEW FRIDAY (1/18)

The day was marred by apparent electrical problems which caused interruption

of the signal away from the track and then the cancellation of the day's final

two races.

Track Trends -- Dirt & Turf

With the turf rails at 48 feet, the turf seemed to allow all types to run

their race, depending upon how the race went. Saving ground and then having a

horse that will quicken when asked and finding room to run is usually the way to

a good finish on the lawn. It seems to be that way here this week. If the pace

is moderate, the relevant horse can stay the trip, depending upon the pressure.

The dirt saw winners coming from inside and out, from on the lead and from

the back. Several races featured fast paces which slowed, which is what is

supposed to occur in cheaper races. The only non-claiming race of the day, a

sophomore maiden special weight sprint, featured a Barclay Tagg second-time starter JOCKEY RIDGE (Broken

Vow), who ran a quick and pressured half-mile in :44.2 and then completed the last 2

1/2 furlongs in :30.9 -- not bad for a lightly-raced, young horse. That would support

the track being pretty fair, the prescription for which is the following: good

horses run faster than cheaper horses; subject races determined by pace and

trip, the best horse can win from either up front or well behind, and inside or

outside. In my opinion, it is hard to knock the dirt track most days of the

meeting. The better your ability to read trainer and stable intent, readiness

and preparation, and match-up the pace of the race, the better your bottom line

should be. One cannot ask for much more than that!

Trainers and Jockeys of Note

Coa earned a day-shortened hat trick, winning the early double. Five of the

seven trainers were getting their second or third win of the meet and several of

those had not started a lot of horses.

Horses or Races of Interest

JOCKEY RIDGE (Broken Vow) was probably the day's most impressive winner and

did so in such a fashion that would suggest he might have a future. He of course

has to be placed in a reasonable spot with some time before his next start.

Would imagine Barclay will do what is best for the horse so he is probably worth

a solid look if he is not thrown to the lions to soon.

Hopefully things will improve in terms of a greater number of better quality

races and more interesting horses to watch as the meet progresses.

DAILY REVIEW SATURDAY (1/19)

Saturday's card was without a stakes, but on the other hand half the card

consisted of non-claiming events. There were more close finishes than not on the

day. We even think we found a horse to watch that did not win, though he will be

shared by the rest of the racing world who probably saw exactly what I saw.

Track Trends -- Dirt & Turf

Both courses appeared to be relatively fair once again. Winners came from up

front and the back on both turf and dirt and the also inside and outside. Being

up close was probably the best place to be on the dirt, but those results may

have been as much due to race match-ups and jockey tactics as the race track

itself. Once again the better horses were running faster than the cheaper ones,

which is the way it is supposed to be.

While I no longer make my own Pace and Speed figures, I have followed

somewhat of the same process I did when making them, and if there is a big

positive of this race meeting to date it must go to the track superintendent for

producing a fair racing surface on most days. When a horseplayer can only lay

the blame for his failures only at his own feet or on his jockey (and they often

deserve it, just as they often deserve credit for doing the right thing) and not

on the running surface, he has to be satisfied that the man is doing his job

well. Complimente!

Trainers and Jockeys of Note

Once again, each race was won by a different trainer and only Elvis Trujillo

was a double winner on the day. Peter Walder drew within one of the top of the

trainer list with seven victories as Pletcher failed to produce a winner

locally. He has been seen on the Santa Anita broadcasts more than occasionally,

perhaps indicating where some of his better stock is located. He has most of his

winners stabled at Palm Meadows, though, several of his runners have moved to the

Gulfstream prior to racing.

On the Monday review, I will list an updated top jockey listing and will also

list several trainers who may be flying a bit under the radar (see the Weekly

Review's last paragraph). There are several of those with several wins from

limited starts and many of them are not household names.

Horses or Races of Interest

While it did come in an $18K claiming event, I did think that FOREIGN RUCKUS

(Strike the Anvil) might be worth a look next time out. Sent out by Kirk Ziadie

and coming off a big win in the slop, the seven-year-old had more than a troubled

trip and appeared to respond again each time when asked; this is one of the

demands I make on troubled horses unless the jockey completely wraps up on him

thereafter. He is a very consistent performer these days (unlike many we see)

and might be counted on for another honest effort last time if given adequate

time and preparation before his third start following the claim. He looked to

lose an iron shortly after the start and then was reserved on the inside. We

counted three moves and checks from the far turn to the wire on the inside then

from what I could see galloped out reasonably well. He may deserve another look

next time; if raised in class or if facing live droppers he might even be a

price next time. I am quite certain that every trip handicapper in North America

will have spotted this too.

DAILY REVIEW SUNDAY (1/20)

The dirt track was wet all day, rated as good and the races were taken off

the grass turning what looked like a possibly interesting card into a rather

boring one with seven of the day's ten races going as claimers; two were for

non-winners of two and one for non-winners period.

Track Trends -- Dirt & Turf

When it has been wet and drying out, the dirt track has played somewhat slower

in terms of pace fractions and final times. One can make a possible case for

suggesting that it is more front-running, but once again, today's races were

cheaper in class, and only two of the 10 paid near 10-1, suggesting that it may

have been the match-ups and the jockey tactics which were responsible for the

shape of the winning races.

Trainers and Jockeys of Note

David Fawkes and Eddie Kenneally were winning their fourth races of the

meeting -- each from limited starters. Coa won four, Velazquez and Lezcano

two apiece, once again pointing out the importance of the top five rider factor.

Amongst that trio, there are 45 wins, almost a third of the winners to date. Take

the leading jockeys into consideration when making final decisions from amongst

your choices; it should help your game.

Horses or Races of Interest

There were no particularly fast races or paces on a card weakened when the

MSW races were taken off the turf.

DAILY REVIEW MONDAY (1/21)

Two maiden races and two allowance races were the highlights of the day.

However, with the track playing somewhat slow -- though rated fast -- it was

difficult to get a read that any were special. If a horse wins easily or by many

lengths does it mean a good horse or a weak field? Until we get more evidence, I

am reluctant to rate any as special on the basis of what I have seen.

Track Trends -- Dirt & Turf

Horses were winning from various parts of the dirt track -- inside and out and

up close early and with late moves. Following the rain and races being taken off

the turf, the races seemed to be run slower on both surfaces. Some of could be

related to the quality of the fields; some the track surface itself. The turf

was yielding and the rails were at 36 feet. Being reserved and saving ground

early in turf routes seemed to be the preferred approach.

Trainers and Jockeys of Note

Velazquez (21), Coa (19), Lezcano (17), Trujillo (13) and Cornelio

Velasquez (11) have won more than half the winners at the meeting so far. This

is not an unusual figure. If you were an owner or trainer, you would likely elect

to go after a rider who is confident and winning races if you had a horse ready

to run a winning race? Why take a chance of losing the race with a plethora of

good riders available (such riders as Edgar Prado, Kent Desormeaux, Javier Castellano, Eddie Castro and Rene Douglas aren't bad choices either)?

Pletcher and Walder top the trainers' list with eight wins apiece.

Wayne Catalano and Nick Zito have five wins each.

Plesa won two races on Monday, when the races were won by different

riders.