GULFSTREAM NOTEBOOK
JANUARY 30, 2008
by Steve Zacks
Week Four in Review
By the end of Thursday’s card, 214 races had been run. Of these, 14 were
stakes, 39 allowance races, 27 maiden special weights, 78 claiming races, 43
maiden claimers and 13 starter allowances.
The following provides some particulars about how some of the meeting’s
leading trainers are currently operating. Perhaps you will find one or two
nuggets that will help your handicapping.
TODD PLETCHER: (9 Wins) Few surprises here. Not surprisingly, John Velazquez
has been aboard for all nine wins. Six have come with sophomores and four have
been females. Five have paid slightly better than 3-1 odds. Most come directly
from Palm Beach Downs though some have moved over to Gulfstream for some time.
Six have been absent for six or more weeks; two winners were first-time starters
(both used Lasix). Most have multiple works, on a regular pattern, four or five
furlongs (all but one had at least one five furlong work), breezing, neither
very fast or very slow, though four did record recent bullets. Two winners were
in a claiming races, three were dropping and one went from maiden to stakes (his
only repeater). Four wins came on turf, one with a surface switch; distance
changes were not significant. Most showed signs of current form or condition by
being up close in their previous start; most were in condition by the turn in
their winning races, especially the dirt winners. All were making their first
starts in Florida, i.e. shipping in.
PETER WALDER: (11 wins) Velazquez has ridden the majority; Peter and John V.
have along-term association. Age and sex is not a factor. Horses are spotted to
win and most are bet; one escaped at 5-1, two at about 5-2, and the other five
were below 2-1. There is one key, though it applies to several of his losers as
well: 10 winners were recently claimed (first five starts since the claim) and
five were making their first start in the new barn. Four were up in class, seven
down. Distance changes were minimal, variations on the sprint or route theme.
Works seem to be infrequent though the winners returned anywhere from 22 to 296
days; all had run last at Calder or Gulfstream; Peter is stabled at Gulfstream.
A recent blinker change appeared in three winners’ profiles. There were some
positives in the last-race running lines for most winners. To best describe the
outfit we will quote a Neil Diamond song: “money talks.”
NICK ZITO: (8 wins) He has used four different jockeys. All have been bet
with the best price being 7-2. He is based at Palm Meadows. Those absent 31 days
or longer have multiple works, though the work pattern is frequently less than
regular. He works four furlongs mostly with the occasional five-furlong move.
Proximity to the race is anywhere from six to 14 days at the meeting (his norm).
Usually, there is at least one work in even :12s (:48) within the last 30 days.
At Gulfstream, he breaks a lot of maidens and wins preliminary allowance races.
He has won a couple with stretch outs, a couple with blinker changes; he
frequently runs soft entries. All but one of his winners has had positive form
signals from their prior start regardless of the time away. That one took a big
class drop in claiming price; he is usually deadly with this move. Six of his
wins have come with non-claimers. He also loves to win at Keeneland, so keep
your eyes open for next time!
WAYNE CATALANO: (6 wins) The Catman is stabled at Gulfstream; five winners
ran last at Hawthorne, one at Churchill. He has used several riders, most of
whom he has had a past history. All were in claimers and returning from layoffs
of 30-to-75 days; all had multiple works, most had one of five furlongs as part
of that series of works; three had bullets (a solid work with a new horse is
usually a positive signal from him). Also a work back within 17 days of the last
race is an added plus. He runs them where he thinks they can win, up or down.
Three were new to his barn via claim or switch; three had recent victories. The
horses are usually bet, with 3-1 the best price available.
KEN MCPEEK: (6 wins) Kent Desormeaux has been aboard four of them. Four have
been odds-on, with one leaving the gate at 7-1. Most have come off layoffs of
less than 90 days with fairly regular prepping. Most have at least one
five-furlong work in the mix, and more often than not one or more of the works
are in even 12s. Surface switches are frequent, not uncommon for a Kentucky
trainer, but several did experiment with turf. Also five of the six were making
their first start in Florida. He will drop them to win. All but one showed some
signs of form in the preceding race.
KIRK ZIADIE: (5 wins) Florida-based high percentage trainer has five
lower-class wins at the meeting. He is deservedly well-respected at the windows
and high odds are rare. Prime jockey has been Jose Lezcano. Four came back from
layoffs (40-90 days) and one was repeating on five days rest. Most of his
winners (and losers) show works from four-to-eight furlongs and he often
finishes up the pattern with a work within five or six days of today’s race. He
is effective with new stock, claims or switches, and when he does get one in
shape a series of good races might be expected. He runs them where they can be
competitive.
There are a lot of Kentucky- and New York-based trainers who may use this
meeting to prep for Keeneland, Churchill, Aqueduct and Belmont where the purses
may be significantly larger or where the owners are domiciled. The occasional
trainer may get hot for a short period when the owners are visiting South
Florida over the winter.
Trainers such as Allen Jerkens, Zito and Dale Romans, to name a few, can be
tough to figure as to intent: are they serious today or merely prepping for the
spring elsewhere? The more you know about how a trainer operates the better the
clues might be. For example, I personally like to see a close-to-the-race work
from Romans before I play him. The work preferably comes within five days of the
race, is at five furlongs or tied to a recent five-furlong work. I only play him
here when he sends the signal. I miss winners this way, but I also find that it
keeps me off a substantial number of losers. When he does use the set-up, my
confidence level is higher in regards to his intent. He has four wins, one with
a five-day, five furlong work, and another with four furlongs, four days with a
prior work at five furlongs. He did win a Sunshine Millions race with a
lightly-raced filly; even though I expected that he was deadly serious I passed
on her as the desired works were not there.
If you focus on certain specifics for various trainers, you can often find
something he or she likes to do with many of their winners. If you find a
nugget, remember it and when you see it, get a square price and make the
play. The key in evaluating your idea is this: as long as the horse shows up and
runs well with your key, then you are on to something good! They do not
always have to win to prove your case: they have to run well. A trainer can only
place a well-intended runner in the right spot. He does not know exactly who the
competition will be or if another has a surprise performance in store.
To take this method of play to the next level, one must also follow a
qualification process that determines whether or not you should actually bet the
horse you have identified as being ready and pointed to today’s race. When you
can put the two of them together in a working format, you are definitely on the
pathway to success.
Not all races are run on the race track the same way they look on paper. As
long as most of your horses are in the hunt, then you are on the right track.
Things happen when the gates open. If you are doing things right, you will win
your fair share, and probably also suffer some heart-breaking defeats. The
better you learn to accept these defeats the better you will survive the mental
aspects of betting on horses.
Let us take a quick look at the two Sunshine Million sprints at Gulfstream on
Saturday by way of possible explanation. BENNY THE BULL (Lucky Lionel) was the
odds-on choice and produced at least the performance the public expected,
winning rather easily as an even-money should. In the next race, the sophomore
filly sprint division, 6-5 favorite Blitzing (Montbrook) simply did not show up.
The winner, second-choice AMERICAN COUNTY (Gibson County), was trained by Dale
Romans. She had nothing close to the preferred preparation that I look for while
a couple of the others did match my trainer keys, so I left her off all of my
plays for that reason.
Reviewing the race indicates that three of the fillies had problems at the
gate or start, which may partially explain, why American County was loose by a
length after a quarter-mile in a field with a lot of early speed. Perhaps
Blitzing was reacting to her new top in the prior race, but she never fired.
Sindy Jacobson (More Than Ready) may not have handled the switch to the dirt in
her debut on that surface. If the start had been clean, perhaps American County
would have been under pressure and not lasted. If Blitzing had showed up with
her A race, or Sindy Jacobson, what would the outcome have been? No one knows
for sure.
Unpredictable events happen all the time. Certainly check to see if you made
a mistake, but if external events beyond your control, changed the outcome, turn
the page and go on to the next race. There may also come a time in the future
when you can put all this information to good use too. The next time these
fillies get together, perhaps the circumstances will have changed. If you
remembered that Blitzing and Sindy Jacobson may have been compromised and that
American County may have been the beneficiary of a perfect trip, you might be
able to turn things in your favor.
Interesting Stats for Week Four Winners
The following figures are taken from my personal data base (occasional
adjustments are made)! The first figures are for this week’s races. The
following number in [square brackets] is the figure for the meet to date.
Number of Races this Week: 56 races [214].
Winners: Ran Last At: Calder –17 [85]; Aqueduct — 2 [19]; Churchill — 6
[21]; Turfway –1[6]; Gulfstream — 17 [26].
Winners: Stabled At: Gulfstream — 17 [78]; Calder — 20 [68]; Payson Park —
3 [8]; Palm Beach Downs — 1 [8]; Palm Meadows- 13 [48].
Winners: Days Since last Race: within 14 days — 6 [24]; 15-30 days — 23
[70]; 31-90days — 20 [98]; 91+ days — 1 [8]; first-time starters — 2 [9].
Winners: Works: worked since last race — 39 [150]; worked 6 furlongs or
farther — 2 [12]; one work of at least 5 furlongs — 15 [67]; worked within
five days — 11 [52]; either six or seven days before the race — 15 [52].
Winners: In Shape: Using at least one up-close call in the preceding start as
a sign of being in shape: 34 [133]; repeaters 8 [27].
Winners: Running Style: Early: (within two lengths at either or both of the
first two calls, sprint or route) turf — 7 [14] of 29 [60]; dirt — 33 [111] of
99 and [154].
Winners: Surface Changes — 7 [31]; off artificial surfaces — 3 [9].
Winners: Class Changes: numbered — 38 [136]; dropped — 32 [96]; rose — 6
[40] [last-out winners: 2 rose, 2 stayed the same and 4 dropped in class!]; msw
to mcl — 0 [6]; drop from stakes — 5 [16].
Winners Distance Changes: 14 [76]; shortened up — 4 [39]; stretched out —
10 [37] (a furlong or more and/or added or dropped a turn).
DAILY REVIEW WEDNESDAY (1/23)
The rains came, the track was sloppy and the races were taken off the turf.
There were multiple scratches from various races.
Track Trends — Dirt & Turf
Off the turf. The main track was rated sloppy all day long. Being on or close
to the pace was usually the route to the winner’s circle. Horses were able to
make a late run outside too, but often the winners were long gone, with
favorable pace scenarios for them.
Trainers and Jockeys of Note
Ken McPeek (a maiden special and a maiden claimer) and Kirk Ziadie (a claimer
and a starter allowance) won two races each. Races were won by nine different
jockeys.
Horses or Races of Interest
The 6TH race, a $16K starter allowance, featured both a fast pace which set
up a quickly run race. Early speed carried the day with little change of
position. The winner, BLUE PEPSI LODGE (Pioneering), posted his fourth victory
in a row. He is now four-for-six in the off going. It might be a good race as
the fastest pace and race of the day.
In the day’s 3RD race, MY BABY BABY (Bernstein) also took a liking to the wet
surface and wired a compact field of sophomore fillies in just her second career
start. She set a fast pace and widened. These might prove to be races of
interest. Certainly these winners were solid today, but how much of will carry
over to the next race will depend upon how you evaluate and handle dominant
winners over wet surfaces.
DAILY REVIEW THURSDAY (1/24)
The track condition was muddy for the first three races, then changed to good
for the races 4 through 9.
Track Trends — Dirt & Turf
Races were once again off the turf. The track was basically fair once again
as horses won from everywhere. It looked to be just the match-ups for the day,
but most of the winners were off the inside, save MAKE THE POINT (Menifee) in
the 8TH.
Trainers and Jockeys of Note
Each race was won by a different trainer and different rider today. Walder
won one to take the lead in the trainer standings. Velazquez managed a single
victory to retain his lead in the rider’s race.
Horses or Races of Interest
There were two races that were run in good time for the day, and they
probably were the day’s two best races.
The 2ND, an entry level two-turn allowance for older horses, was run in quick
time relative to the day’s other races. The pace was honest and the final time
was a quick 1.49.4 over the good going. Romans had BULLET RAIN (Red Bullet)
properly set up (a five-furlong work five days out) to score his second career
win in his first start going two turns.
In the 8TH, MAKE THE POINT (Menifee), making his first start since Saratoga
and since moving into the care of Kiaran McLaughlin, set a relatively fast pace
(based on the way the track played for most of the day) to win comfortably in
the entry-level allowance sprint for sophomore colts and geldings. Exiting a
troubled trip in the Saratoga Special (G2), he assumed command after a clean
break here and went about his business, taking inside pressure before drawing
off. The way he ran today, it looks as if he was more relaxed than in his
earlier outings. He might be worth a look next time. He was the only winner
running inside for the entire trip.
DAILY REVIEW FRIDAY (1/25)
The day before the Sunshine Millions featured only one non-claiming race.
They were back on the turf.
Track Trends — Dirt & Turf
Turf was rated as good and the rails were placed at 72 feet. There were two
sprints and two routes. All winners raced in close proximity to the lead through
most of their races and the times indicated that the turf was less than firm.
The dirt track seemed to play a little bit on the slow side; however making a
judgment was difficult as there were no high quality races with a contested pace
scenario. The allowance for older fillies at seven furlongs was a paceless
affair with a small field.
Trainers and Jockeys of Note
Pletcher dropped the South African-bred HEAT OF THE NIGHT (SAf) (Casey Tibbs
[Ire]) into a claimer for the first time. But he prepared the horse a little
differently than is his norm. The six-year-old last raced at Churchill 82 days
ago. He had worked five times in the interim — all moderate four-furlon moves
— which is normal for many of his turf runners and was normal work for this
horse. The works were regularly spaced, but stopped 20 days before the race. For
a trainer who normally works quite close to a race (my database indicates that
about 90 percent of the winners worked between two and 10 days), one had to deal
with this issue before making a decision about his readiness. This race was not
going to be a walkover either; it was a contentious race with a stakes winner or
two in the mix and Heat of the Night figured to need a top effort to win.
If you collect data of various types on trainers who win a lot of races, you
are always going to find horses that are on the fringes of what is normal. Be it
with the preparation — distance, spacing, speed and proximity to race-day of
the works — or class and distance maneuvers, or any other factor, there are
always going to be those situations which raise significant doubts. There is no
standard way to deal with these situations. Each situation must be handled
individually. If your judgment is correct, you win.
Remember this though: Winning trainers like to win races; they usually send
out ready runners and place them in a spot where they think they can win; when
horses prove that they cannot win at a level — either because they are not good
enough (after experiments with younger runners) or because they are physically
challenged — they do not take too long to drop them, and they do drop them far
enough. When they make these moves, they usually expect to win the race. They
have the horse as ready as they can, considering the circumstances surrounding
the individual horse. If the horse looks like he can win, then it is likely that
he will show up today, and if things work out he will win. Price should be a
determining factor too. But also remember that even the best of trainers rarely
win more than one-in-four at the best of times.
Good trainers treat each horse as an individual and do cater to their
individual needs. Heat of the Night managed to win by a neck as the betting
favorite at 7-5. No one claimed him, but they did take two others out of the
race for $62,500.
Cornelio Velazquez managed a pair of wins on the day; Velazquez cemented his
place atop the leader board by winning a trio, one for Pletcher and two for
Florida-based trainers. A clue here: when you see the meet’s leading rider climb
aboard a local runner, take note. Interestingly, the public did just that. All
three wins came on the turf; all three winners were sent off as the betting
favorite. If you like the horse in the race, you are likely to get a shorter
price. But then with the, or a, top rider aboard, you are likely to get a
confident ride and encounter fewer mistakes, so if you honed in on the proper
horse, you might get the money — even if less than you had hoped for!
DAILY REVIEW SATURDAY (1/26)
The weather co-operated for Sunshine Millions Day with the sun shining on
both coasts and the races went off without a hitch at Santa Anita. This was the
best day of racing to date featuring several top performances in the stakes
races.
Benny the Bull turned in the star performance of the day, running better than
expected. He was far more aggressive early and while he had to search for room,
he smoothly changed gears up and back to dominate the field in a strong
performance very close to the track record. He will likely be heard from later
in the year.
American County was an un-pressured winner of the sophomore filly sprint.
Once she was able to take command after the break, she was all set for an easy
trip on the front end and there were no significant late challenges mounted. She
ran as quickly early as the older males, but did slow considerably in the later
going. Whether or not a cleaner start for several of her opponents would have
changed the early pace scenario will never be known. The fact that two of the
shippers did not run their “A” races left American County as the deserving
winner.
GINGER PUNCH (Awesome Again) showed her Eclipse-winning form in taking down
the Distaff in strong fashion. She stalked a very fast pace and had all the
answers when the questions were asked. She was 3-10 and looked every bit the
part!
WAR MONGER (War Chant) tried hard to find enough trouble to get himself beat
as the favorite, as he was aggressive when in behind horses early in the
running. Once he found daylight, he showed the mark of a good horse by
accelerating rapidly and running by his opposition almost as if they were
standing still. He came his last three-eighths in under 35 second — racehorse
time at nine furlongs! In Bill Mott’s capable hands, War Monger is likely to be
heard from often later in the year.
Track Trends — Dirt & Turf
Dirt was fast and played fair with runners winning in a variety of paths and
positions. It is normal for horses that are in position to win more often than
those coming from the clouds. Also the good horses were running faster than the
slower ones. A track made for handicappers!
The turf was rated firm with the rails at 72 feet. The sprint was won on the
front end, the route from the back.
Trainers and Jockeys of Note
Ten different trainers and nine jockeys won races today. Prado won both
Sunshine Millions sprints.
Horses or Races of Interest
DR. MOHRBACHER (Deputy Minister) had more than his fair share of trouble in
behind runners and searching for a path to run in the 5TH race, a cheap
conditioned claimer. He showed run several times when he did find daylight
before getting into trouble again. He was well-backed today, but was certainly
better than his race here. He is worth a look next outing if he has a little
time, perhaps a rider change and perhaps going a little farther where he may not
be as rushed. This is a betting outfit — or most of their live horses take
serious backing at the windows — so do not expect too much value.
COOL COAL MAN (Mineshaft) was very professional in winning his second
allowance race going two turns in his first start in a couple of months.
However, his final fractions were somewhat slower and he will have to do a lot
better if he is to step up to stakes company in his next start. He could move
forward off that race, but will likely have to if he is to successfully handle
better company.
Of interest cross-country, QUITE A BRIDE (Stormy Atlantic), who won a stakes
on Gulfstream’s opening day, exceeded my expectations at Santa Anita. After a
soft stalking trip over the good turf, the Mott-trained mare took over with a
quick move at the top of the stretch and was able to hold off the favored
Nashoba’s Key (Silver Hawk).
DAILY REVIEW SUNDAY (1/27)
Following a good day of racing on Sunshine Millions Saturday, Sunday featured
only one small-field allowance race, for older runners, and the Appleton H. (G3)
on the grass; the rest of the races were mostly for conditioned claimers, from
maidens to non-winners of three. For some reason, the track was playing much
slower than it was on the previous day — or was it merely a function of the
horses that were running?
Is an allowance race an allowance race? NOT ALWAYS! Check out the 3RD race
from Sunday, a non-winner of two other than route test. DEPUTY INDY (A. P.
Indy), a six-year-old gelding, rates as a proven loser in this condition (with
at least 10 failures); he owns a two-for-26 record with six seconds and nine
thirds. In his favor is the fact that he generally shows up; his problem may be
that he is simply not good enough to be an allowance runner at this level. Were
he not bred in the purple and had he not cost $350K, he probably would have
found himself in a claimer a long time ago. If and when he comes up against a
very weak field (apparently weaker than I thought it was before the race was
run), he might win, because he does at least show up and try. He ran in such a
race today. In my opinion, he won only because the race fell apart and none of
the others could really run, or if they could were not ready to do so today.
The allowance races for older horses at Gulfstream have been a tricky
situation for the player for many years. A proper approach to these races is to
scan the field and rate them as either a legitimate allowance race, or an
“owners and breeders phony” allowance race. If there are several lightly-raced
and still developing four- or five-year-olds, with only one or two failures in
the classification, then it might be considered one of the former and treated as
an allowance race. If the horse in question has run to race pars recently and
show some competitive spirit, he might be seen to have some upside potential. If
there is only one in the race and he/she seems to be ready to run, your decision
becomes simple.
There are more of these non-winners of one, two or three other than allowance
races, which fit the latter category. Save the odd runner, that has had a
history of growing pains and infirmity and might still turn out to be a “decent”
runner, these can turn out to be very, very weak races indeed. The fillies and
mares with residual pedigree value and questionable ability often make up most
of the contestants in many of these events. Occasionally the same goes for the
male versions. Many of these are really claimers in allowance clothing. Be extra
careful when evaluating the field and be very demanding in qualifying runners.
Horses of proven ability in claiming or non-allowance events do merit serious
consideration if they are in good form and match up favorably. If and when races
look to be very weak relative to the race pars, then occasionally, the “honest”
type of limited ability might just win. In my opinion that is what happened
today.
Being aware of this concept might help you to avoid a lot of losers! Not
making a losing bet — especially if it is a bad bet — is almost as good as
winning!
Track Trends — Dirt & Turf
Turf was rated firm with the rails at 72 feet. With no major surprises on the
turf today, the course was playing fairly to the best horse on the day with the
right trip. Interestingly the highest odds on the lawn were 12-1; the BRIS
Ultimates PPs with Comments did point out that the winner had the best figure at
the distance and was dropping from an allowance optional claimer to a
non-winners of two claimer, which probably would have meant a better race was in
the offing. The runner was also switching from one top rider to another, so he
might have been a bit of an overlay!
The dirt was listed as fast. Most of the times were on the slow side. The
suspicion is that it was much the quality of the horses running today as it was
the track surface.
Trainers and Jockeys of Note
Walder won another to move back atop the trainer list. Zito won with a
big-time dropper, JAZZ MASTER (Dixieland Band), who went from $62,500 to
$12,500. He did have to run a very determined effort, going to the front and
taking pressure from both sides in an extended stretch drive. Surprisingly, no
one reached for him. Off that effort he might be worth a good look next time
out. While the race looked very slow on raw times that degree of fight is not
seen in too many young warriors. Maybe he has found his proper level and will
win right back if not spotted beyond his likely level. When he figures to get
into the game early, he seems to run his race.
Prado was the only dual winner in the jockey race and looks to be ready to
assume a place in the top five very soon.
DAILY REVIEW MONDAY (1/28)
Three non-claiming races, all for older runners, marked the closing day of
week four.
Walder stands atop the trainer standings with 11 wins. Pletcher has nine and
Zito has eight, Catalano and McPeek round out the top five.
Velazquez has 30 victories atop the jockey standings. Coa is next with 24,
followed by Lezcano and Elvis Trujillo with 18 a piece. Desormeaux and Velasquez
are tied with 14 apiece, and Prado has 13.
Leading turf riders: Velazquez has 10. Coa, Desormeaux, Lezcano, Prado and
Trujillo have six apiece.
Track Trends — Dirt & Turf
Fast track and firm turf. Once again, I thought the track was fair and
subject to the race match-up. As is usual on a fair racing surface, saving
ground can prove crucial to winning and a number of today’s winners on both
surfaces were inside early and angling out for the stretch drive.
Trainers and Jockeys of Note
Dan Hurtak won a couple of races on the day. Desormeaux had a hat trick and
Velazquez won two. Watching the former find room in the turf sprint was perhaps
the most exciting happening of the day.