BELMONT REPORT
MAY 29, 2008
by James Scully
The quarter-crack was only a temporary setback, but it served as the perfect
reminder for why BIG BROWN (Boundary) is so lightly raced — he’s fragile. If
the Belmont S. (G1) proves to be his final career start, he’ll head to stud with
only six career starts. Ten of the previous 11 Triple Crown winners raced at
least that many times at two, and Whirlaway made 16 juvenile starts before
garnering the Triple Crown in 1941. Big Brown does have something in common with
the Calumet homebred; he’s the first horse since Whirlaway to win both the
Kentucky Derby (G1) and Preakness (G1) by at least four lengths.
The foot injury lends itself to the possibility of another setback, and it
highlighted another major concern for anybody who cares about horse racing. Win
or lose, Big Brown’s connections could easily decide to retire him after the
Belmont. It won’t be a blunt announcement. We’ll get some story that puts it in
the best interest of the horse. There will be another reported flare-up of his
foot, and four-out-of-five doctors will recommend retirement over the
possibility of serious injury.
I find it difficult to believe that Big Brown will ever race again after the
Belmont, and that’s a real shame.
Trainer Richard Dutrow remains as confident as ever, trashing the competition
regularly, and it was interesting to see him knock Horse of the Year Curlin
(Smart Strike) last week. According to the brash conditioner, Big Brown has
nothing to worry about if he ever runs against Curlin. Dutrow pointed out that
Curlin lost to a filly, champion and 2007 Belmont winner Rags to Riches, and
questioned the colt’s abilities as a result. It was a ridiculous statement, and
Curlin’s connections aren’t worried. You won’t hear trainer Steve Asmussen
knocking Big Brown when they retire him early. If he wanted to act like Dutrow,
he’d say that Big Brown’s connections were scared to lose to the best horse in
the land.
Unlike Curlin, who had to deal with one of the deepest and most talented
three-year-old divisions in the past 30 years, Big Brown is beating up on a
bunch of softies. That’s why there’s a buzz surrounding the unbeaten CASINO
DRIVE (Mineshaft). With the Japanese horse in the line-up, Big Brown will face a
legitimate rival at “Big Sandy.”
In the past, a horse making only his third career start in the 1 1/2-mile
Belmont would be a complete throw out because the inexperienced runner wouldn’t
have enough bottom to get the job done. But times have changed drastically. Big
Brown, who wasn’t even in training in January, won the Derby in his fourth
career outing, and he smashed other historical precedents while making a mockery
of those who didn’t think he had the breeding (by a confirmed six-furlong
sprinter) to handle the 10-furlong distance.
Casino Drive is essentially in the same boat. He didn’t make his career debut
until February 23, crushing a group of overmatched rivals in Kyoto, Japan, and
didn’t beat much when winning the May 10 Peter Pan S. (G2) by 5 3/4 lengths. To
think that he could step up and beat a horse of Big Brown’s caliber off only two
starts remains a stretch, but it’s possible. He’s got the best chance at an
upset.
A half-brother 2006 Belmont winner Jazil, Casino Drive is a three-quarters
brother to the outstanding filly Rags to Riches. He’s bred to absolutely thrive
over 1 1/2 miles. And he obviously owns plenty of talent, thrashing his
competition like Big Brown while earning a 109 BRIS Speed rating in the Peter
Pan. That number is 11 points higher than any Speed figure earned by Derby
second choice and sixth-place finisher Colonel John (Tiznow).
The way I see it, Big Brown is still a standout in the Belmont — he’s that
good. But horses will take a step back in the “Test of Champions.” If Big Brown
regresses even slightly, Casino Drive could be there to take advantage.
We’ll have a final preview of the Belmont next week.