Kentucky Derby 08 J

AMERICAN
GRADED STAKES PREVIEWS

Solving this particular Kentucky Derby (G1) is not for the faint of heart, as you have
nearly half of the field coming off synthetic tries, four who have never won on the dirt,
many who we feel are not race-fit to contest 10 furlongs beneath the Twin
Spires, and a likely heavy favorite who has had only three career starts. We’ve
tried to identify the strongest prep race in deciphering this puzzle, and it
seemed obvious to us that the Wood Memorial S. (G1) was the deepest pre-Derby
field, with four graded stakes winners and the talented Giant Moon (Giant’s
Causeway) among its cast.

Court Vision is tabbed to give Hall of Famer Bill Mott his first classic victory (Joseph DiOrio/Horsephotos.com) We could have gone either way in the top slot, but we’ve given the slightest of edges to COURT VISION (Gulch) to run them down late to give Bill Mott his first win in a Triple Crown event. The late-running Kentucky-bred has never missed the board in six lifetime tries, led by wins in the Remsen S. (G2) and Iroquois S. (G3) at two, and seems poised for a career-best on Derby Day. A wide-trip third in the Fountain of Youth S. (G2) in his sophomore debut, the dark bay failed to capitalize on the wicked pace set in the Wood but still finished a decent third while earning a lifetime best 98 BRIS Speed number. Equipped with blinkers in his last two drills, and adding them for the Derby, the colt may have really turned the corner with eye-popping works, and he should be as fit as any in the field due to the solid foundation he absorbed as a freshman. We love Garrett Gomez and figure it’s his time to earn Derby glory.

Wood victor TALE OF EKATI (Tale of the Cat) was stylish when taking the
Futurity S. (G2) last campaign and could be rounding into his best form in here
for Barclay Tagg. The well-bred bay began this season with a listless sixth in
the Louisiana Derby (G2) and didn’t exactly fly home in the Wood, but he was
part of the robust pace and stayed on, showing his immeasurable heart. Bred in
the Bluegrass State and named after a diamond mine of owner/breeder Charles
Fipke, this gem has excellent tactical speed and should get first run on the
closers with his best. Eibar Coa will be in the irons aboard the classy
three-year-old.

DENIS OF CORK (Harlan’s Holiday) has a world of talent and couldn’t have
looked better in his Southwest S. (G3) romp earlier in the year, but it’s hard
to back him for the win coming off his fifth-place showing in the Illinois Derby
(G2). The David Carroll pupil began his career with a visually impressive maiden
win over this oval and won his first two tries of this campaign, prior to his
puzzling effort in Illinois. Many, including myself, have questioned the
preparation of this sophomore leading up to this event, but maybe we’re flat
wrong and the connections will be rewarded with their decision. We consider this
one a live top three threat under Calvin Borel.

Second selection Tale of Ekati has been training beautifully (Mathea Kelley/Horsephotos.com) If PYRO (Pulpit) was a true distance horse he’d be our surefire top selection, but some stamina questions arise about the ultra-talented sophomore. The striking colt began this campaign with an eye-popping, last-to-first burst in the Risen Star S. (G3) and came back to easily take the Louisiana Derby, but he hit a snag along the way to Louisville, never firing in the Blue Grass S. (G1) over the Polytrack at Keeneland. We don’t take that showing all that seriously, but we also don’t feel that prep will help him in this race and must choose against him for the win. The Winchell Thoroughbreds homebred could simply be better than his rivals and run by them late, but we prefer to use him to complete the gimmicks under Shaun Bridgmohan.  BIG BROWN (Boundary) is the wildcard in the field and will almost surely be popular among the big bettors in here for the ultra-confident Richard Dutrow. A remarkable 11 1/4-length winner in his lone start at two over the Saratoga lawn, the superb colt won his seasonal debut for fun and followed that with a five-length tour de force in the Florida Derby (G1) in just his third lifetime try, earning a field-best 110 Speed figure in the process. We have two major concerns regarding the phenom: he’s not bred to run this far and he possesses only three lifetime tries. On this occasion, we have to let him beat us, but he could still earn a placing with a sensible trip.

COLONEL JOHN (Tiznow) may be the most logical pick in the field as he is bred
to handle 10 panels, the colt has never been worse than second running against
California’s best, and he could be ready for a peak effort on Derby Day. The Eoin Harty charge turned heads with his impressive Real Quiet S. score as a
juvenile and concluded his campaign with a decent second in the CashCall
Futurity (G1). In 2008, the bay colt took the Sham S. (G3) and, most recently,
the Santa Anita Derby (G1), and he has trained forwardly in preparation for the
biggest event of his career. We’ve always thought of the Kentucky-bred as more
of a blue collar athlete rather than an explosive runner, and his lack of early
foot could find him behind a dozen or more horses around the backstretch.
Colonel John has never raced on dirt and this is a difficult time to experiment
with anything new. Corey Nakatani will guide the colt, who could surely land in
the top three if he likes this oval.

It’s hard to argue with the fact that BIG TRUCK (Hook and Ladder) is one of
the most experienced members of the field, and he deserves a second look based on that fact
alone, when facing so many lightly raced competitors. The Tagg pupil was live
from the word go when breaking his maiden at Saratoga at 3-5 odds, followed by a
score in the Bertram Bongard S. at 1-5. The Empire State-bred has raced four
times this year, with his best result coming in his Tampa Bay Derby (G3) win,
and he’s run nearly eight miles in competition since last summer. The bay has
never disgraced himself against top company, with the lone exception of his 11th
in the Blue Grass in his Polytrack debut, and he owns a ton of
stamina through his female line. We think the colt has a chance to finish in the
top four at big odds.

Pyro is forecast to be an exotics threat (Joseph DiOrio/Horsephotos.com) COWBOY CAL (Giant’s Causeway) could be the stronger of the Todd Pletcher duo and comes in off a sharp second in the Blue Grass. The well-bred colt finished unplaced in a six-furlong sprint in his debut at Saratoga, his lone attempt on dirt so far, but turned the corner in a hurry when placed on the grass, reeling off a trio of wins in succession, including the Tropical Park Derby (G3) two back. The Kentucky-bred is still a mystery of sorts on the main oval and he loves to be on or near the early tempo, but if he endures a good trip and handles this surface, he will be a huge threat in the lane. Pletcher’s number one, John Velazquez, has stuck with this colt throughout his three-year-old campaign and we find that as a huge positive. We consider the dark bay a home run or strikeout candidate, with little in between. Your call. ADRIANO (A.P. Indy) is another in the Cowboy Cal mold for Graham Motion, in that he is an excellent turf and synthetic performer, but his chances in here will depend almost solely on his ability to handle the dirt. In his lone try on dirt, the well-bred colt never factored in the Fountain of Youth but he shouldn’t be dismissed too quickly, as he rebounded with a win in the Lane’s End S. (G2) and secured the services of jockey Edgar Prado, who had various options but stuck with this colt. He has the right running style and a nice turn of foot, so we’ll use this horse with cautious optimism.

Z HUMOR (Distorted Humor) is our exotics bomb pick for Mott, as we think the
well-bred colt is primed for a lifetime effort in here. The bay was an electric
debut winner at Saratoga in the summer and capped his five-race juvenile season
with a dead-heat win in the Delta Jackpot S. (G3). Although the Kentucky-bred
has failed to impress in three tries in 2008, he has improved his placing each
time and has posted a pair of solid drills over this surface. We love the bay’s
pedigree, running style and improving form. We would have a hard time seeing him
in the winner’s circle, but a third-place effort at steep odds would be just fine.
Note that the blinkers are coming off for the Derby.

GAYEGO (Gilded Time) is bred to be a miler but has overachieved to this point
for Paulo Lobo. The ultra-consistent dark bay has finished first or second in
all five career starts and ran his best race to date when taking the Arkansas
Derby (G2) in his dirt debut. The colt has a world of tactical speed and should
be in the early mix under Mike Smith, and if he duplicates his Arkansas form, he
could get a piece of the pie at a solid price.

Z Humor has the look of a seriously live longshot (Bill Roberts/Horsephotos.com) Z FORTUNE (Siphon [Brz]) is an admirable runner who almost always shows up with a solid race, but he simply looks a step or two slower than most of his counterparts. The New York-bred made a big move in the Arkansas Derby most recently only to fall short, but he finished well clear of third in a perfect prep for this. Steve Asmussen’s second-stringer may have some distance limitations, as well, but he’s a steady performer who could hit the tri or super under the right scenario. MONBA (Maria’s Mon) upset the Blue Grass field for Pletcher last out and is a winner over this surface, so he’s yet another who needs a closer examination in this field. The talented three-year-old was a fast-closing fourth in the CashCall Futurity to conclude his freshman campaign but flopped in a big way in his seasonal bow, finishing a troubled last in the Fountain of Youth, prior to rebounding in the Blue Grass. He’s bred for stamina top and bottom and has pleased his conditioner with his morning work, but we question his overall fitness with just one real test from a two-race sophomore season. The gray has ability but we can’t see him peaking in here.

COOL COAL MAN (Mineshaft) was another who was done in by the artificial
going in the Blue Grass, but one only has to look back to late February to see
this colt’s win in the Fountain of Youth for Nick Zito. On that day and in his
previous race, the bay displayed excellent tactical speed and a sharp
acceleration approaching the final turn, two things that will only aid him in
this testing event. We like the fact the sophomore earned a career-best
101 Speed number in an allowance win over this famed strip last fall, and he
should be fit after a five-race juvenile season and three tries this year.
Without sounding redundant, the colt could be included in the payouts with the
right trip, but we don’t like him to win this. 

EIGHT BELLES (Unbridled’s Song) has been brilliant versus fillies this year
for Larry Jones and comes off a classy win in the Fantasy S. (G2) at Oaklawn.
Although this may not be the deepest Derby field ever assembled, the lass is not
head and shoulders above her own sex and she remains a huge question mark at
anything close to 10 furlongs. Indeed, she has never been beyond 1 1/16 miles. In her defense, she should be in as good a shape
as any in the field, she’s perfect this year, and she’s earned triple-digit BRIS
Late Pace figures in four of her last five outings.

Twenty sophomores will bid for glory beneath the historic Twin Spires (Ed Van Meter/Horsephotos.com) SMOOTH AIR (Smooth Jazz) is a game horse who has outrun his pedigree to date for Bennie Stutts Jr. The Florida-bred was well clear in second in the Florida Derby and has never been unplaced in five stakes tries, which includes a tally in the Hutcheson S. (G2). His third two prior in the Sam F. Davis S. impressed us as much as his last one did, but will either one be good enough to take home the lion’s share of the $2 million purse? We don’t think so, but he wouldn’t be the worst stab in the world to include in your vertical exotics at boxcar odds. VISIONAIRE (Grand Slam) has never been worse than third in his five dirt tries and is trained by Michael Matz, who needs no introduction to Churchill Downs, but we question his chances at this 10-furlong trip, and we’re not sure if he’s good enough on his best day. The Kentucky-bred took the Gotham S. (G3) two back and showed some late interest in the Blue Grass, but we think he’s more than vulnerable in here and must pass.

RECAPTURETHEGLORY (Cherokee Run) rolled home by four lengths in the recent
Illinois Derby and is handled by trainer Louis Roussel III, but he would
be a surprise in here. The bay colt had a useful juvenile season, posting a win
and a second-place effort behind Cool Coal Man in a paceless allowance heat, but
he looks like he could use another race or two before tackling this trip. The
sophomore is not bred to run this far and could be part of a wicked early pace,
so we’ll look elsewhere at this time.

ANAK NAKAL (Victory Gallop) is a Grade 2 winner at Churchill, garnering the
Kentucky Jockey Club S. (G2) last November, and will take the blinkers off for Zito. However, his form has been too bad this year for us to
recommend his chances.

BOB BLACK JACK (Stormy Jack) has one chance in here, to go to the lead and
hope to endure the 1 1/4 miles before anyone reels him in. We are not confident
in the Santa Anita Derby runner-up’s chances to do that, so we’ll leave him
off our ticket.