KENTUCKY DERBY REPORT
MAY 1, 2008
by James Scully
The first topic when doing an analysis of this year’s Kentucky Derby (G1) is
what to do with BIG BROWN (Boundary). He’s the best-looking horse in the field,
and the unbeaten colt sparks enthusiasm as a possible superstar who could help
revitalize racing. From that standpoint, I’d be thrilled to see Big Brown win in
convincing fashion, but I don’t believe it will happen.
Big Brown is woefully prepared for 1 1/4 miles from a pedigree perspective,
and three lifetime starts, including a turf maiden and an off-the-turf
allowance, aren’t enough to have him ready for the most grueling Thoroughbred
race in the United States. After beating nothing in his first start back off a
six-month layoff in March, he turned in a spectacular performance in the Florida
Derby (G1) three weeks later, earning a substantially higher Speed rating (110)
than in his first two starts. The inexperienced colt is a candidate to bounce
off such a monstrous effort, and breaking from post 20 with three speed horses
to his immediate inside won’t be easy. He’s also had problems with his feet,
which could be a little sore following his sharp three-furlong breeze on
Thursday.
I’ve been wrong before (Smarty Jones is but one example), but I think Big
Brown will be looking for a spot to land in the back of the field when he
arrives at the top of the stretch.
COLONEL JOHN (Tiznow) is training great over the dirt at Churchill and looks
like a must-use in the exotics, but I’ll try to beat him for the win. His trip
in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) could prove irrelevant if he rallies boldly on the
far turn Saturday, but I didn’t like the way he lost ground on the final bend
last time out. The well-built colt momentarily appeared beat entering the
stretch drive, but he finally kicked it in and rolled past the leaders in the
final furlong. I can’t envision that kind of trip winning the Kentucky Derby,
and Colonel John has never run fast with a career-best 98 BRIS Speed rating.
When you get past Big Brown and Colonel John, the race is suddenly wide open.
I’m looking for a horse who will be in full stride on the far turn and can
overcome a wide trip, and I’ve landed on two horses: DENIS OF CORK (Harlan’s
Holiday) and Z FORTUNE (Siphon [Brz]).
Denis of Cork suffered from questionable race-planning after posting an
impressive 2 1/4-length score in the Southwest S. (G3) on February 18, but don’t
blame trainer David Carroll. The owner allowed “sheet guys” to craft a strategy
that called for a near two-month layoff after the Southwest, and that left him
flat in the Illinois Derby (G2). As a result, Denis of Cork nearly missed the
Derby due to limited graded earnings, but he secured a spot on Monday when
Behindatthebar (Forest Wildcat) was withdrawn.
The lightly raced colt still gained valuable fitness when finishing fifth at
Hawthorne, and Carroll has proceeded to tighten the screws in preparation for a
career-best. Denis of Cork has displayed his affinity for Churchill in his
morning drills, and his career debut under the Twin Spires last November was
something special. The bay Florida-bred appeared hopelessly beaten entering the
far turn, but he circled rivals with a sensational wide move that carried him to
victory and earned a 107 BRIS Late Pace rating. I’m expecting another powerful
finish from the horse-for-the-course.
Z Fortune captured the Lecomte S. (G3) prior to a respectable second behind
Pyro (Pulpit) in the Risen Star (G3). He took a step back in his next outing,
finishing fifth as the 3-5 chalk in the Rebel S. (G2), but that effort proved to
be an aberration in the Arkansas Derby (G2). Despite traveling extremely wide on
both turns, he rallied boldly to just miss behind Gayego (Gilded Time), netting
a 103 Late Pace rating The gray colt has earned triple-digit Late Pace ratings
in five-of-six career starts, and he’s looked very happy over the track this
week for Steve Asmussen.
COURT VISION (Gulch) is another late runner who intrigues me. A Grade 3
winner last fall at Churchill, the Bill Mott-trained colt has blossomed in the
mornings since arriving back in Louisville, Kentucky, and looks like a good
candidate to reverse his dull form this year with the addition of blinkers. But
I wonder if he can improve enough to win.
My top four selections are:
1 — Denis of Cork
2 — Z Fortune
3 — Colonel John
4 — Court Vision