HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
MARCH 27, 2009
by Dick Powell
What a sensational day of racing Saturday will be. Twelve races from
Gulfstream Park, highlighted by the Florida Derby (G1), and the Dubai World Cup
card from Nad al Sheba make for a day that should satisfy all your
handicapping and wagering tastes.
At Nad al Sheba in Dubai, six stakes races worth $21 million are carded for
the turf and dirt. Last year, many of the races were won by horses that competed
in the Dubai International Racing Carnival so the form of those races becomes
extremely important.
The turf course at Nad al Sheba is usually rated as “good” which is
comparable to our “firm.” But, even though it is in the desert, the turf course
never really gets hard like you would expect so it usually provides a very fair
racing surface for all. With no racing on it in the past three weeks, it should
be lush so all paths should have similar footing. The course is expansive but
the turn at the top of the stretch is tight so saving ground is very important.
What you don’t want on the turf course at Nad al Sheba is to be parked out
wide every step of the way. Last year, even Hong Kong superstar Viva Pataca (Marju)
couldn’t overcome a wide trip and was upset by South African filly Sun Classique
(Fuji Kiseki). It is imperative for the rider to get as close to the rail as
possible. On the turf course, I would rather have a horse that saves ground and
runs the risk of being blocked than being caught out wide.
The dirt track at Nad al Sheba favors horses with speed or tactical speed.
You can watch races from there online at www.emiratesracing.com and rarely will
you have a horse make up a lot of ground in the stretch even though it is almost
three furlongs long. Part of this is due to the nature of the course and part of
it is due to a severe kickback that the frontrunners throw back into the faces
of those behind them.
If you are not a frontrunner, the next best thing is a wide trip. Time after
time you will see a horse win from an impossibly wide post position. Riders
intentionally avoid getting stuck behind horses and sacrifice ground to get
clear of the kickback. The only real exceptions are experienced horses that race
at Nad al Sheba and have shown an affinity for the track.
Leading off the festivities will be the Godolphin Mile (UAE-G2). This is a
one-turn mile race that attracted a field of 15 competitively-matched middle
distance stars. TWO STEP SALSA (Petionville) has the perfect profile for success
here. The speedy sort drew well in post 4 for Frankie Dettori and was a terrific
third in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile behind Dubai World Cup (UAE-G1) favorite
ALBERTUS MAXIMUS (Albert the Great). Now owned by Godolphin, Two Step Salsa has
a win over the track going six furlongs in very fast time.
GAYEGO (Gilded Time), also owned by Godolphin, comes into the race with a
similar pattern being a Grade 2 stakes winner in America before coming to Dubai
and winning a Group 3 prep race on Super Thursday going six furlongs. He draws
post 13 which will be to his advantage. Green Coast (Green Desert) has good
local form and might be under the radar screen in the betting pools.
The past two UAE Derbys (UAE-G2) have been dominated by southern hemisphere
horses but this year that should not be the case. DESERT PARTY (Street Cry
[Ire]) has been sensational here in two starts and coupled with his American
form should not only win here but vault to the top echelon of the world’s
sophomores. He’s that good.
The key to this year’s Derby is to try to find some value underneath. I’m
going to go with SOY LIBRIANO (Ride the Rails), who won a listed race at this
distance on Super Thursday, and NAVAL OFFICER (Tale of the Cat), who makes his
dirt debut after running well on different turf courses.
The Golden Shaheen (UAE-G1) is a six-furlong sprint down the Nad al Sheba
straightaway that attracted a dozen sprinters. Bob Baffert has pointed INDIAN
BLESSING (Indian Charlie) for this race all year and off her spectacular win in
the LaBrea S. (G1) she’ll be a legitimate favorite. I’ll try to beat her with
BIG CITY MAN (Northern Afleet), who has prospered since coming here after
showing strong American form as a juvenile two years ago. He was just beaten
last out here by Gayego and won his two prior starts at course and distance.
DIABOLICAL (Artax) was an even third in the same race in his first start since
the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint and likes this track.
After a one-hour break that is highlighted by a welcoming ceremony that has
to be seen to be believed, the last three races on the card are as good as it
gets anywhere in the world.
The $5 million Dubai Duty Free S. (UAE-G1) has attracted a field of 16 going
slightly less than 1 1/8 miles and it is beyond a head-scratcher. The defending
champ, JAY PEG (Camden Park), is in the race coming off an almost identical
second-place finish in the Jebel Hatta (UAE-G2) as last year and from post 15,
there’s a good chance he won’t make the top 10.
At one point in the deep stretch of last year’s Duty Free it looked like
VODKA (Tanino Gimlet) was going to win. She wound up fourth in the blanket
finish and then went on to win the Yasuda Kinen (Jpn-G1) and Tenno Sho Autumn
(Jpn-G1) at Tokyo and just missed in the Japan Cup (Jpn-G1) going much longer.
She does her best at today’s distance, draws post 3 and unlike last year, she
has a prep race over the course. With Yutaka Take in the irons and only 121
pounds, all the ingredients are here.
Along with Vodka, I like TUESDAY JOY (Carnegie [Ire]) who has won two stakes
in a row against males including a fast mile at Randwick last out. She is
trained by the greatest female trainer in racing history, Gai Waterhouse, and
cannot be ignored. ARCHIPENKO (Kingmambo) just missed here last year when flying
late then showed it was no fluke with a strong second in the Arlington Million
(G1). He has a win in a prep race here four weeks ago and is always tough on
this course.
The American contingent is led by KIP DEVILLE (Kipling), who looked like his
old self last out at Gulfstream winning at today’s distance in very fast time,
and HYPERBARIC (Sky Classic), who has been pointed for this race by Julio Canani
all winter.
Next up is the $5 million Sheema Classic (UAE-G1), going 1 1/2 miles on the
turf, which drew ONLY 15 horses. KING OF ROME (Montjeu [Ire]) was a multiple
Group 2 stakes winner in Ireland last year and rallied from far back and post 11
last out here at course and distance. He draws post 5 today and looks like he’s
rounding into form for Mike De Kock. FRONT HOUSE (Sadler’s Wells) won from post
16 last out against many of these and draws the rail today. She draws the rail
here and has the perfect pedigree to get 12 furlongs on the turf.
Underneath the top two, I’ll use RUSSIAN SAGE (Jallad), YOUMZAIN Youmzain (Sinndar)
and PURPLE MOON (Galileo [Ire]). All three could win with the right trip.
This year’s $6 million Dubai World Cup may not be up to the previous two
year’s standards, with reigning American Horses of the Years Invasor (Arg) and
Curlin in the gate, but it should be a very good race to handicap. The lack of a
dirt superstar has resulted in 14 horses entering the starting gate going 1 1/4
miles on the dirt.
I have liked CASINO DRIVE (Mineshaft) all year and am not going to change
now. The half-brother to two Belmont S. (G1) winners was a terrific second in
the February S. (Jpn-G1) at Tokyo going a mile in track record time. He has
strong tactical speed, perfect for Nad al Sheba, and should be able to race near
the front without much effort. His pedigree is sensational and he draws post 8,
which should be just about perfect. He might get overbet a little in the
international pools, but he will be worth it at any price.
The two horses to beat — ASIATIC BOY (Not For Sale) and WELL ARMED (Tiznow),
ran second and third here last year but neither has ever given the impression
that they relish 10 furlongs. Asiatic Boy looks like he’s coming into the race
in better form than last year and his win at course and distance from post 15
was very good. He has more than enough tactical speed to overcome post 4.
Albertus Maximus has found his best form in his last four starts, but I’m still
not convinced that he has true Grade 1 quality.
At Gulfstream Park, the Florida Derby has attracted a field of nine going 1
1/8 miles on the dirt. It looks like a two-horse race between QUALITY ROAD
(Elusive Quality), winner of the Fountain of Youth (G2) last out going a
one-turn mile here, and DUNKIRK (Unbridled’s Song), undefeated in two starts
including a sensational allowance win here last out.
You can watch all the 1 1/8 mile dirt races since Gulfstream was
re-configured a few years ago and never see a horse as wide as Dunkirk was on
the first turn and still win. He hasn’t missed a beat in his workouts since
then, draws well and gets Garrett Gomez back. Trainer Todd Pletcher is taking no
chances and has entered EUROPE (Unbridled’s Song) to ensure an honest pace for
his stablemate.
Potential threats should come from DANGER TO SOCIETY (Harlan’s Holiday), the
beaten favorite in the Holy Bull S. (G3) at the distance but making his first
start for Rick Dutrow (32 percent win rate according to BRIS), and THEREGOESJOJO
(Brahms), who beat Quality Road two starts back but was no match in the Fountain
of Youth. I won’t be betting this race, but will be watching it intently as it
will be the last start for this group before the first Saturday in May.
Vic Gilardi died last week at the age of 78. The legendary jockey agent was
one of a kind in terms of his professional and personal skills. Someone in
racing should have sat him down years ago and filmed hours and hours of his
memories since he was a link from the modern era back to the glory days of
American horse racing. All you need to know about Vic as a jockey agent was that
his riders had their best years when Vic represented them and that their
business fell when they left.
But it was Vic as a person and racetrack character that will always be
remembered. Vic, or JR, as his wife Jean called him, had a tough Staten Island
accent to understand. My wife would always have this blank look on her face when
he was telling her one of his stories and you knew she didn’t have a clue about
what he was saying. Not only did I grow up in Staten Island, but my father was
from the same neighborhood as Vic so I could understand him intuitively.
When Vic talked to you, you had to listen. And I don’t mean just nod your
head every once in a while. The command of his personality made you pay
attention and if there was any doubt, Vic would apply “The Claw” where he would
hold onto your forearm as he talked. If he sensed you weren’t paying attention,
the Claw would clamp down harder. I always found Vic interesting, but he still
applied the Claw every time he saw me.
Vic had a common sense and street-smart knowledge about people that helped
him and his riders at the track. He also applied it to the business world where
he was a huge success. He easily could have made more money playing the stock
market or making land deals than he could at the track but it was the track,
especially the backstretch and race office, where Vic found his niche. When Vic
gave you his opinion about someone, which he did about virtually everybody, you
could take it to the bank.
For instance, if Vic said that some guy “was a real beauty,” they should
start polishing his plaque for his future induction into the Moron Hall of Fame.
Most everyone else was addressed as “Judge,” which I never quite understood but
never let on or the torque of the Claw would become too intense. Vic knew
everybody and knew everything about what was going on at the racetrack. Even in
the past few years when he didn’t have a rider, he kept up with events at the
track more than anyone else. But when Jean passed away last year, his health
began to fail him at an alarming rate and he joined her last week. He made one
final TV appearance on the AM Saratoga TV show this past August and it was
classic Vic. Going to the track and not running into him will take a long time
to adjust to.