KENTUCKY DERBY REPORT
MARCH 26, 2009
by James Scully
Last weekend was the lull before the storm. Saturday’s Lane’s End S. (G2) at
Turfway Park attracted a competitive field of 12, but none of the contestants
rate as major contenders for the Kentucky Derby (G1). The racing action gets
serious this coming Saturday, with the Florida Derby (G1) and UAE Derby (UAE-G2)
highlighting the festivities, and will continue to pick up steam over the first
two Saturdays in April.
The Kentucky Derby is five weeks from this Saturday.
Lane’s End: Held over the Polytrack at Turfway Park, the Lane’s End
went to HOLD ME BACK (Giant’s Causeway), a confirmed synthetic specialist at
this point in his career. Fifth in his lone dirt start, the WinStar Farm
homebred improved to three for three over synthetics with the 1 3/4-length
score.
Off since November 29, Hold Me Back didn’t break sharply in the 1 1/8-mile
Lane’s End and dropped far back entering the clubhouse turn. Jockey Kent
Desormeaux asked for run leaving the backstretch and Hold Me Back began to
rapidly pass horses on the final bend. He swung wide into the stretch and
finished fast, striking the front around the sixteenth pole and driving clear to
an impressive score. The Bill Mott-trained colt registered a 101 BRIS Speed
figure and
108 Late Pace rating.
His BRIS numbers increased significantly in his seasonal debut, and Hold Me
Back established himself as a legitimate contender for the Blue Grass S. (G1) on
April 11. That race will be held over the Polytrack at Keeneland, where Hold Me
Back easily captured an allowance event last fall, but he will likely face
tougher company. The unbeaten Charitable Man (Lemon Drop Kid) is scheduled to
return in that spot for Kiaran McLaughlin, and Square Eddie (Smart Strike), an
impressive 4 3/4-length winner of last year’s Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at
Keeneland, could possibly prep there as well.
The problem is that the Blue Grass won’t give us any indication as to how
Hold Me Back will handle dirt on Derby Day. Last year, the top four finishers in
the Derby had all won on dirt beforehand. In fact, none had ever raced on a
synthetic track. I’m trying to keep an open mind toward the synthetic-based
runners this year — Pioneerof the Nile (Empire Maker), The Pamplemousse
(Kafwain) and Chocolate Candy (Candy Ride [Arg]) are all very nice horses — but
it’s going to be difficult to have much confidence going forward if they all
fail to fire their best on May 2.
Last year didn’t flatter the synthetic set. Colonel John (Tiznow), who won
the Travers (G1) the second time around on dirt, was capable of better than he
displayed when sixth at Churchill Downs. Adriano (A.P. Indy), Monba (Maria’s
Mon), Cowboy Cal (Giant’s Causeway) and Bob Black Jack (Stormy Jack) all built
their credentials on synthetic tracks but were no factor in the Derby.
Hold Me Back must still answer the class question as well. The Lane’s End
runner-up, maiden winner FLYING PRIVATE (Fusaichi Pegasus), finished fourth in
an allowance/optional claiming event two starts back at Oaklawn Park. He was a
near 25-1 outsider who didn’t appear to have any business running as well as he
did on Saturday. Third-placer PROCEED BEE (Bernstein) liked the track, winning
the John Battaglia Memorial S. at Turfway in his previous outing, but he was no
factor when facing less-than-stellar company earlier this year in the Smarty
Jones S. at Oaklawn. The top two contenders entering the race, WEST SIDE BERNIE
(Bernstein) and BITTEL ROAD (Stormy Atlantic), both came up empty in the stretch
of the Lane’s End.
Upcoming — DUNKIRK (Unbridled’s Song) will get one shot — the
Florida Derby — to earn his way into the Kentucky Derby field, and it’s not
just a berth that is at stake. If he runs big on Saturday, the gray colt will go
favored in the Run for the Roses. His supporters showed in Pool 2 of the Future
Wager two weeks ago, betting Dunkirk down to 7-1 favoritism among individual
interests, and that was the perfect indication of the reputation he’s developed
off only two career starts. Inexperience didn’t matter with Big Brown last year,
and Dunkirk will generate the same pre-Derby buzz with another convincing
victory on Saturday.
He will have to get past QUALITY ROAD (Elusive Quality), who earned a
whopping 110 BRIS Speed rating for his 4 1/4-length score in the Fountain of
Youth (G2) and will be forwardly placed during the early stages of the Florida
Derby. THEREGOESJOJO (Brahms), who offered a stout late run for runner-up honors
in the Fountain of Youth, could also provide stiff competition.
DESERT PARTY (Street Cry [Ire]) is the one to beat in the UAE Derby from Nad
al Sheba. With Midshipman (Unbridled’s Song) and Vineyard Haven (Lido Palace
[Chi]) both out of the picture, the Grade 2-winning colt is the only serious
Derby prospect remaining for Godolphin.