Tampa Bay Derby

TRACK BANDIT PREVIEWS

Arguably the most wide open of this weekend’s Kentucky Derby (G1) preps, the
$300,000 Tampa Bay Derby (G3) has attracted a field of 11 to go 1 1/16 miles. We
don’t think the emergence of GENERAL QUARTERS (Sky Mesa) in last month’s Sam F.
Davis S. (G3) was a fluke, so we’ll side with him to repeat over a track he
clearly cherishes.

Though it is understandable why bettors allowed General Quarters to drift up
to 13-1 in the Davis, what they seemingly missed in their handicapping was the
vastly improved BRIS Speed and Late Pace ratings the gray had earned in both
Inaugural S. and Pasco S. Add into the equation his pedigree, which is geared to
two-turns, and it should have come as no surprise that all the colt really
needed was a stretch out from the sprints he had been running in. The main track
at Tampa Bay Downs is like poi — not to everybody’s taste — and General
Quarters’ undoubted
fondness for the surface should give him an edge over others shipping in from
other locales.

WARRIOR’S REWARD (Medaglia d’Oro) is very inexperienced compared to the rest
of these as he only debuted on January 31 and makes just his third career start
here. On the plus side, he was a very strong second to the highly rated Dunkirk
(Unbridled’s Song) in a nine-furlong Gulfstream allowance on February 19, which
is a good yardstick. Trainer Ian Wilkes, as an assistant to Carl Nafzger, was
part of the team that got Street Sense to the winner’s circle in this race two
years ago.

Trainer Barclay Tagg won this race last year with Big Truck (Hook and
Ladder), and he’s back this season with HELLO BROADWAY (Broken Vow). The colt
finished a solid second in the January 30 Hutcheson S. (G2) in his seasonal bow,
and probably showed more early speed than he needed to that day. If able to rate
more effectively, he should have a big chance in his two-turn debut. Weaknesses?
Well, he hasn’t exactly been flattered lately by Capt. Candyman Can (Candy Ride
[Arg]), Break Water Edison (Lemon Drop Kid) and Vineyard Haven (Lido Palace
[Chi]), who have beaten him in his last three. That calls into question the
long-term quality of those races.

SUMO (Fusaichi Pegasus) was a clear second to General Quarters in the Davis
and still has upside. We’re not sure he can take that big step forward here and
make amends, but he definitely deserves consideration in exotics plans. BEAR’S
ROCKET (Lion Heart) was a narrowly beaten second at a big price in the Holy Bull
S. (G3), flashing more early speed than usual in what his dirt debut. Drawing
post 9 here, he’ll probably revert to stalking tactics under Kent Desormeaux,
who stays faithful after getting to know the colt last time.

MUSKET MAN (Yonaguska) was undefeated heading in to the Davis and was exposed
when finishing 6 1/2 lengths behind General Quarters, a horse whose number he had
going seven furlongs in the Pasco. We’ll take a stand against a reversal in the
finish of the Davis. NOWHERE TO HIDE (Vindication) was in a tough spot in last
month’s Risen Star S. (G3) when returning off a nearly two-month layoff with just a maiden win to his credit. However, he ran reasonably well to finish
fourth and, like Sumo, has upside. TOP SEED (Grand Slam) bested the choice in
the Inaugural, but was beaten more than 15 lengths in the Davis. That’s a lot of
ground to make up.

The rest all have serious questions. JOIN IN THE DANCE (Sky Mesa) has tired
at much shorter distances. JUSTDONTCALLMEJERI (Mr. Broad Blade) has no
experience on dirt and is a former maiden claimer. PERFECT BULL (Holy Bull), in
his maiden days, couldn’t beat fields of Minnesota-breds.