CHURCHILL DOWNS NOTEBOOK
APRIL 30, 2009
by Frank Cotolo
Here we are with one of the most promising race meets of the year for
bettors; it’s spring at Churchill Downs. Even though the meet is front-heavy
with stakes on the undercards of the first week’s high-profile features — the
Kentucky Derby (G1) and Oaks (G1) — the remainder of the meet’s racing offer great
wagering opportunities on good old dirt and turf, along with a compendium of
stakes action sprinkled throughout until the close in July.
So week one is history and all eyes are on the Twin Spires for the first
Friday and Saturday in May. On Friday, the Derby sister event, the
Kentucky Oaks for sophomore fillies, headlines a stakes menu that includes a
quartet of other graded races. And Derby Day itself is adorned with lots of classy
performers in competitive fields (see below for the rundown of the big weekend of racing).
Track stats
Before the stakes list and choices, let’s see how the track is playing and
how the public is wagering in the first week’s programs, as well as what early
trends exist or are developing.
Off-the-pace winners have been plentiful in the first 31 races of the meet,
though counted in that number are close-to-the-pace winners. With around nine
wire-to-wires recorded, I am giving the level-playing-field stamp to the first
week’s action.
As for favorites, there were 11 strict favorites (to the penny) winning
through April 28, so even with a small sample we have a traditional winning toll
with around 35-percent choices.
Coming up
Kentucky Oaks — The entries are headlined by RACHEL ALEXANDRA
(Medaglia d’Oro), a three-time Grade 2 victress. Six others will try to break her
four-race winning streak. One of the challengers is
Bonnie Miss (G2) and Davona Dale (G2) winner JUSTWHISTLEDIXIE (Dixie Union), who
has compiled five straight wins. D. Wayne
Lukas will send out a trio, BE FAIR (Exchange Rate), TWEETER (Unbridled’s Song) and STONE LEGACY
(Birdstone), in the eight-horse field. We like the Stone Legacy, with Kent Desormeaux in the irons. She’s fresh and
ready. Lukas said the filly, which has not raced since March, worked brilliantly
at Churchill.
Aegon Turf Sprint S. — Nine are scheduled for this dash and we like
CHAMBERLAIN BRIDGE (War Chant) with Garret Gomez. It’s a suspected match-up
between CANNONBALL (Catienus) and our choice, a five-year-old which has already won on at
Churchill and seems well placed by trainer Bret Calhoun.
Louisville Distaff S. — They are all going after the unbeaten ZENYATTA
(Street Cry [Ire]) in this one
and that is why we are looking at the probable second choice, ONE CAROLINE
(Unbridled’s Song), to
defeat the comeback gal. Zenyatta will face a tough challenge in her five-year-old debut.
Alysheba S. — MACHO AGAIN (Macho Uno) is the sole millionaire in this
field and loves Churchill. But looking an underlay like this one straight in
the face makes for wandering eyes. The horse with strong potential is DR
PLEASURE (Thunder Gulch). Trainer John Ward gets this one into a
stakes-performance position at a time when his foes have to rekindle last
season’s success.
Edgewood S. — LARAGH (Tapid) may be the big choice here, but we are
interested in Julien Leparoux aboard MAGICAL AFFAIR (Giant’s Causeway). Julien’s
mount appears to love the turf and could become a major player this season.
Breaking her maiden in a route, a rare and notable fact, she is ready for the
likes of these stakes types, having not yet raced with them enough to fear their
credentials.
American Turf S. — In a race most are considering extremely
contentious, we have to give major consideration to the up-and-coming BUNKER
HILL (Trippi). This one comes out of a monster journey at Charles Town’s
bullring, almost winning. On the turf now, Bunker Hill and rider Mike Smith may
excel, since the colt is maturing and, best of all, is 20-1 on the morning line.
Woodford Reserve Turf Classic S. — EINSTEIN (Brz) (Spend a Buck) returns to defend his
championship here and looks tough. But if you have to
defy him at the windows, take a look at JUST AS WELL (A.P. Indy). Jonathan
Sheppard was hot at Keeneland and proved he can bring a horse to stakes capacity
with the best of them. This one is poised to score and what a feather in his
mane a win here would be, not to mention the price for us believing in him.
Humana Distaff S. — Speaking of Sheppard, his mare INFORMED
DECISION (Monarchos) could mean curtains for the
rest of her rivals in this seven-furlong event. In top shape and riding the Sheppard wave, she returned to the track with
a winning effort on the Keeneland green and appears to be even better. A low
price could turn me away but if she is in the second tier of choices, I’ll
support her.
Churchill Downs S. — THE ROUNDHOUSE (Fusaichi Pegasus) is intriguing
in this seven-furlong run. He just won an allowance, giving trainer Todd
Pletcher the impetus to put him in here, where a sprint showdown is expected, and
The Roundhouse may be able to take advantage of a duel. His sire sure liked
Churchill, being the first Kentucky Derby favorite to win in years when he took
the classic.
Churchill Distaff Turf Mile S. — Excellent performances in her last
two starts make
it hard to look past BALLYMORE LADY (War Chant).
She raced boldly past three rivals in the Endeavour S. (G3) this year and can win
her second graded event the same way here.
Eight Belles S. — The Larry Jones-trained WARRIOR MAID (Holy Bull)
is an intriguing entrant in this affair. His other, Grade 2 victress JUST JENDA (Menifee),
makes for a strong one-two combination. Jones could
be eyeing the former so she can get back to sprinting, where she won in
February, but I’ll probably just watch this one.
Kentucky Derby — Just looking at the morning line of this year’s
classic makes a bettor drool. There were times during the prep season when some
of us would have prayed for 20-1 on MUSKET MAN (Yonaguska) or even 4-1 on DUNKIRK
(Unbridled’s Song). But here
we are with I WANT REVENGE (Stephen Got Even) as a mild 3-1 choice and a line of his types laying
in the Derby history’s graveyard. My point being that so much looks possible
in this field that I cannot fathom one scenario I like most. So if I must hold a
ticket it will be a souvenir longshot or two: Musket Man and REGAL RANSOM
(Distorted Humor) will
do.
Feature reviews
Derby Trial S. (G1): The race went to HULL (Holy Bull), who remained
undefeated with the victory. Though this was the “Derby” trial, trainer
Dale Romans said the colt could very well be headed for the Preakness (G1). It was
the stakes debut for the colt who broke his maiden at the Fair Grounds and beat
allowance foes at Turfway. He destroyed this field after kicking in a big run at
the top of the stretch.
HORSES TO WATCH
Saturday (4/25)
3RD — KISS THE QUEEN (Chief Seattle) saved ground well, driving late at the mile distance
and coming up just short. Watch for her to stretch out and a major jockey switch
as the go signals.
4TH — BELL GOT EVEN (Stephen Got Even) did a lot of work to finish third in this six-furlong
chase, making a strong move on the turn, angling and still eating up ground
late.
6TH — Q THE MUSIC (Cuvee) was bumped while challenging three wide for the lead, then
was steadied and picked up the chase well to finish fourth. Leparoux is a good
partner for this one.
7TH — MITIGATION (Cherokee Run) is the perfect bet-back based on a dramatic journey. She
chased the pace four wide starting from the 10 post and regardless of the early
loss of ground in the five-furlong event, still finished third.
11TH — BETTY BYE (Evansville Slew) was 12-1 popping out of the gate from post 10 and ran a
calculated race, gaining between horses on the turn and appearing full of run at
the end, finishing third in the sprint. A wire-to-wire winner stretching out
would be no surprise.
Sunday (4/26)
3RD — LAVENHAM (Take Me Out) is one of those horses I love to bet, since he was involved
in a double duel when losing. In this race, he battled at the quarter and again
at three-quarters, holding on to just miss the win at a mile at 12-1.
8TH — DO DROP IN (Lemon Drop Kid) finished a strong second coming in from Oaklawn and likes
Churchill dirt, as seen in this mile race where, at 7-1, he battled three wide
and then six wide in the turn to finish second.