KENTUCKY DERBY REPORT
APRIL 2, 2009
by James Scully
Saturday’s Florida Derby (G1) was a terrific race between a pair of top-class
three-year-olds,
QUALITY
ROAD (Elusive Road) and
DUNKIRK
(Unbridled’s Song). Quality Road impressively repelled the late rally of
Dunkirk, establishing himself as the possible favorite for the Kentucky Derby
(G1), but the runner-up flattered himself in defeat. Dunkirk’s connections
aren’t willing to concede superiority to the winner yet.
It was the first in what will hopefully develop into a great rivalry, but
there’s no guarantee of a rematch on May 2. Dunkirk is presently teetering on
the bubble of the 20-horse Derby field with $150,000 in graded earnings.
The Derby is four weeks from this Saturday.
Florida Derby: Quality Road, who had never been two turns before
Saturday, passed the distance test with flying colors. The Edward Evans homebred
relaxed comfortably into the first turn of the 1 1/8-mile test, tracking about a
length off of pacesetter Casey’s on Call (Gimmeawink) through solid opening
fractions of :23 2/5 and :46 4/5, and moved effortlessly to the lead early in
the far turn. Johnny Velazquez remained calm as Dunkirk came flying with a
dramatic rally from the back of the field, making up a lot of ground while wide
throughout the far bend, and the two hit the top of the stretch virtually dead
even.
When Velazquez shook up Quality Road, the Jimmy Jerkens-trained colt
responded in outstanding fashion. Quality Road reasserted himself along the
inside, charging clear from Dunkirk with a burst of speed, and comfortably held
his rival at bay through deep stretch for a 1 3/4-length decision. Both runners
finished fast.
Quality Road is lightly raced with seemingly much more to offer. A sharp 4
1/4-length winner of the one-mile Fountain of Youth (G2) in his previous start,
the Virginia-bred has earned BRIS Speed ratings of 103 (Florida Derby) and 110
in his last two outings. He was all speed in his first two starts, but he’s now
showing the ability to rate and finish strong, registering BRIS Late Pace
numbers of 102 and 100 in his last two respective starts. Quality Road improved
his overall mark to 4-3-1-0, and Velazquez is a good fit for the well-built
sophomore.
It’s easy to envision him sitting a perfect trip just off the speed in the
Kentucky Derby. Out of Strawberry Road (Aus) mare, Quality Road is bred for distance
on his dam side and is by Elusive Quality, sire of dual classic winner Smarty
Jones. He looms extremely large for the Derby.
Dunkirk was spotting seasoning to his muscular rival, and the speed-biased
track did the gray colt no favors in his stakes debut (the final time of 1:47
3/5 was the second track record of the afternoon). He couldn’t get past Quality
Road when it mattered, but his turn of foot on the far turn, while wide, was
something to behold, and Dunkirk never quit while checking in second-best,
galloping out strongly past the winner after the finish line. The Todd Pletcher
trainee was six lengths clear of third, recording a 106 Late Pace number.
There’s a lot to like about his future.
The Coolmore runner made his career debut on January 24, winning a
seven-furlong maiden special weight by 5 3/4 lengths, and captured an 1
1/8-mile, entry-level allowance by 4 3/4 lengths on February 19. The Florida
Derby figures to take something out of him, but Dunkirk will have five weeks to
recover and should be dead-fit off the strenuous effort. He’ll take back and
figures to come charging on the far turn in the Kentucky Derby, but he has to
make the field first.
He wouldn’t have made last year’s Derby — Denis of Cork (Harlan’s Holiday)
was the last one one in with $164,700 in graded earnings — but $150,000 may
still prove within the 19-horse threshold (Mafaaz [GB] [Medicean] is guaranteed a spot via
the Kempton Challenge). It would get him in most years, and it will probably be
close either way. With four major purses left up for grabs, I think it’s 50-50.
The graded earnings system has never been overhauled, and Dunkirk’s omission
would spark plenty of calls for change.
UAE Derby: DESERT PARTY (Street Cry [Ire]) looked to have Saturday’s
U.A.E. Derby (UAE-G2) at his mercy, but stablemate REGAL RANSOM (Distorted
Humor) crashed the party in wire-to-wire style, turning the tables on the highly
regarded colt by a diminishing half-length margin. The rain-soaked, fast track at Nad al Sheba
was playing favorably toward front runners.
Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin last year, Regal Ransom opened his racing career
with a front-running maiden special weight victory at Saratoga and shipped to
Santa Anita for his second career start in the Norfolk S. (G1). A 7-5 favorite
over a field that included Del Mar Futurity (G1) hero and eventual champion
Midshipman (Unbridled’s Song), Regal Ransom was never comfortable over the
synthetic track and finished up the track. He wasn’t seen again until this
season, returning to the races under the care of trainer Saeed bin Suroor with a
pair of seconds to Desert Party in an allowance race and the U.A.E. Two Thousand
Guineas (UAE-G3).
Regal Ransom will head to the Kentucky Derby off of Saturday’s encouraging
performance, but the front runner will face completely different circumstances
under the Twin Spires. He’ll be a big outsider on Derby Day.
Desert Party owns plenty of class and remains a viable Derby contender, but
the U.A.E. Derby didn’t flatter him. He’s bred to handle 1 1/4 miles, but his first
two starts this year came at shorter distances and he didn’t handle the added
ground as expected in the about nine-furlong U.A.E. Derby. The speed-favoring track favored his
stablemate, but Desert Party had his rival measured in upper stretch, with every
chance to get past in the final furlong. The Godolphin runner was gradually
making up ground late under Frankie Dettori and should gain valuable fitness
from this effort, but his ability to thrive at 10 furlongs is a concern.
Sunland Derby: This race won’t have any impact upon the Derby, but
runner-up MYTHICAL POWER (Congaree) established himself as one to watch in the
future for Bob Baffert. A maiden winner going a mile in his previous start, the
Peachtree Stable homebred gave a fine account of himself while stretching out to
1 1/8 miles in his dirt debut.
Upcoming: Saturday features a couple of races with major Kentucky
Derby implications, the Santa Anita Derby (G1) and Wood Memorial (G1). The
Illinois Derby (G2) will also be offered, but it doesn’t have the star quality
of those two events.
A showdown is at hand out west between a pair of heavyweights — THE PAMPLEMOUSSE (Kafwain) and PIONEEROF THE NILE (Empire Maker)
— in the Santa Anita
Derby. They’ve combined for five stakes wins this winter, establishing their
dominance while avoiding each other’s company, but the nine-furlong event won’t
necessarily tell us who’s best in terms of the Kentucky Derby. The Pamplemousse
owns a tactical advantage with his speed, and Pioneerof
the Nile only needs a good showing from off the pace to keep his Derby momentum
going. The Baffert-trained Silver Charm and Real Quiet both won at Churchill
Downs after dropping their final prep in the Santa Anita Derby.
The Wood Memorial sets up as a showcase for I WANT REVENGE (Stephen Got
Even), who posted a smashing 8 1/2-length score when shipping east for the March
7 Gotham S. (G3), and he’ll compete for favoritism on Derby Day with another
convincing victory. However, IMPERIAL COUNCIL (Empire Maker) will look to offer
a more serious challenge after finishing a non-threatening second last time. The
Shug McGaughey runner was making his stakes debut in the Gotham, and he figures
to be closer to the pace this time before offering his best run late.
Tampa Bay Derby (G3) hero MUSKET MAN (Yonaguska) is the top draw in the
Illinois Derby, and he’ll enhance his Derby status if he carry his form forward
at Hawthorne. GIANT OAK (Giant’s Causeway) will look to turn things around
following a couple of disappointing showings at Fair Grounds, and PERFECT SONG
(Pleasantly Perfect) is an interesting entrant from Michael Trombetta. The
latter figures to show the way early under Jeremy Rose.