Aristides J

AMERICAN
GRADED STAKES PREVIEWS

An evenly-matched field of 11 will vie for the $100,000 Aristides S. (G3) at
Churchill Downs on Saturday, and we’re taking a shot with the widest horse in
the field, GRAND SENSATION (Grand Slam). Trained by Steve Hobby, the improving
chestnut has really turned it on in 2009 and looks well spotted in here. Often a
strong pace presence early in his career, the Kentucky-bred reverted to closing
tactics at Oaklawn this campaign and it elevated him to a trio of big races in
succession prior to finishing eighth as the favorite in the Count Fleet Sprint
H. (G3) two back. A dominant, front-running allowance win last out at Arlington
signaled the readiness of the colt, who gets Tim Doocy back in the saddle.

SOK SOK (Trippi) impressed us when toppling subsequent Grade 1 winner Kodiak
Kowboy (Posse) two prior, and we’re willing to excuse his fifth-place finish in
the Churchill Downs S. (G2) at seven furlongs last out. Conditioned by Steve
Asmussen, the four-year-old broke his maiden here and has won half of his career
starts, so he’s a big threat to return to the winner’s circle. Shaun Bridgmohan
will have the riding duties.

Count Fleet hero SEMAPHORE MAN (Formal Gold) has been operating at a high
level for some time for trainer Kelly Von Hemel and could be the horse to beat
in this group. The speedy seven-year-old sports a solid 22-9-6-3 mark at this
six-furlong distance and had the benefit of putting in a local work, so we can’t
see any reason why the gelding won’t run his usual strong race.

VICARIAN (Vicar) loves this oval, as evidenced by his 10-3-4-2 mark at
Churchill, and should be rolling late under Calvin Borel for conditioner Ian
Wilkes. The gelded five-year-old doesn’t appear to be a prime win play for us,
but his consistency and affinity for the local strip make him attractive for the
gimmicks at a square price.

GARIFINE (Belong to Me) has yet to live up to the $1.8 million price tag on
his ledger but is in pretty good form for Steve Margolis. The late-developing
five-year-old had the lead in midstretch in five straight outings prior to his
poor showing in the Count Fleet, but a quartet of solid drills over this oval
should ready him for a good effort on this occasion. Miguel Mena has the call.

Grade 1-placed stakes hero PREMIUM WINE (Prime Timber) will make his yearly
debut in here for his new trainer, Asmussen. The Empire State-bred has kept
solid company throughout his career with good results, and he shows three wins
from four tries at this distance. We’re not sure if the closer will get there in
time, but we’ll include him in our exotics under Larry Sterling Jr.

BOLD START (Jump Start) had given the impression of a horse who was ready to
become a serious player at this level many times in the past, but the Ken McPeek
charge ha come up short in each of his graded tries. We like the versatile dark
bay and appreciate his 8-3-2-2 local mark, but we still feel inclined to include
him only on the bottom of the gimmicks.

SUCCESS SUCCESS (Successful Appeal) is an honest closer for Paul McGee,
registering BRIS Late Pace numbers of 100 or more in seven of his last 10
outings. We know someday this gelding will run down a solid field; we’re just
not certain that today is the day. We do, however, consider the Florida-bred a
must-use in the lower rungs of the exotics.

CASSOULET (Distorted Humor) has put in a trio of solid tries since
transferring to trainer James Baker, so we’ll throw the likely longshot into our
exotics plays.

KNIGHTS CROSS (Thunderello) should be forwardly placed from the opening bell
for Eddie Kenneally, but the bay has lost three consecutive allowance/optional
claiming tilts and should find this field more difficult than those.

EARLY RETURN (Carson City) has posted BRIS Speed numbers of 96, 98 and 99 in
his last three tries on dirt, but until he proves he can duplicate at a venue
other than Fair Grounds, we’ll let him beat us.