BELMONT REPORT
MAY 29, 2009
by James Scully
Eleven colts and geldings are being pointed toward next Saturday’s Belmont S.
(G1), but Preakness S. (G1) victress RACHEL ALEXANDRA (Medaglia d’Oro) looks
doubtful. Co-owner Jess Jackson didn’t rule her out when delaying a decision
earlier this week, but he mentioned the June 27 Mother Goose S. (G1) as a
possible alternative. It will be no surprise to see her officially withdrawn
following next Monday’s work.
Trainer Carl Nafzger did the same thing two years ago with Street Sense after
he lost the Preakness by a head to Curlin. He didn’t immediately pull him from
consideration, waiting for the colt to return to the worktab 11 days after the
Preakness, and even though Street Sense worked well, Nafzger decided not to
pursue the Belmont. The 1 1/2-mile race is a beast, and Nafzger knew that
bypassing it would be in the best interest of his horse. Street Sense went on to
win the Jim Dandy S. (G2) and Travers S. (G1) later that summer.
Rachel Alexandra is in a similar boat. After training very aggressively in
preparation for the Kentucky Oaks (G1), she delivered a monstrous performance,
winning by 20 1/4 lengths under a hand ride, and returned 15 days later to win
the 1 3/16-mile Preakness. However, she regressed off her Oaks victory at
Pimlico. Her BRIS Speed ratings declined (105 compared to a 111 in the Oaks) and
she tired late. To keep pushing forward three weeks later probably
isn’t in her best interests.
There’s still a lot to be gained by winning two legs of the Triple Crown, but
her connections must be realistic. The Preakness wasn’t that big of a risk.
Every year, Kentucky Derby (G1) horses maintain their peak form two weeks later
in the second leg of the Triple Crown. MINE THAT BIRD (Birdstone) and Musket Man
(Yonaguska) are great examples this year. But the Belmont is much
different circumstances. That’s where horses like Big Brown, Smarty Jones, Funny Cide, War Emblem, Charismatic, Real Quiet, Silver Charm, Sunday Silence,
Alysheba, Pleasant Colony and Spectacular Bid faltered.
I can sympathize with any fan who wants to see her go for it, but nobody
should fault her connections if they decide not to run; it’s easy to appreciate
them looking out for her best interests. Rachel Alexandra can get a little more
time to recover, perhaps go through the motions like Zenyatta (Street Cry [Ire])
does with an easy win or two against a handful of overmatched female rivals, and then take
another crack at male rivals down the road — at least her connections have the
guts to be great. Who wouldn’t love to see Rachel Alexandra point for the
Travers (G1) in late August?
Woolley-Borel — Trainer Chip Woolley is doing right by Calvin Borel.
He doesn’t have to wait to see whether Borel will ride Rachel Alexandra, but he
wants the 42-year-old Cajun in the saddle of the Derby winner. I like the New
Mexico-based conditioner.
It takes a lot of humility for Woolley and the owners of Mine That Bird to
play the waiting game. Mine That Bird is Borel’s second choice, and many people
wouldn’t tolerate this situation. I remember when Bill Frieder still wanted to
coach Michigan in the NCAA tournament after taking the Arizona State job. As the
late Bo Schembechler said when canning Fisher, “A Michigan man is going to coach
Michigan.”
Borel may be a Rachel Alexandra man, but he’s still a great fit for Mine That
Bird. Mike Smith took over for the Preakness and managed to lose ground and get
checked before kicking it in late. I wouldn’t be surprised if the gelding’s
connections think that losing Borel cost them the victory. They’re smart for
waiting now; Borel will likely become available in the coming days.
Charitable Man/Dunkirk — Mine That Bird is a threat to regress in the
final leg of the Triple Crown. You can’t count the late-running gelding out of
consideration, but I’m not excited about his chances. It’s likely going to come
down to either CHARITABLE MAN (Lemon Drop Kid) and DUNKIRK (Unbridled’s Song)
for me.
Charitable Man likes Belmont and figures to sit a good trip with his speed.
I’m concerned by the fact that he’s never won going two turns, but the breeding
is there and Kiaran McLaughlin figures to have him primed for a top showing.
Dunkirk has never won a stakes race or outside the friendly confines of
Gulfstream Park, but the gray colt is talented. He ran three huge races in South
Florida, winning a 1 1/8-mile allowance before offering a stirring rally for
runner-up honors in the Florida Derby (G1), and his Derby trip looks like a
throw out. The Coolmore runner stumbled at the start and was knocked off stride
repeatedly while being bumped and checked into the clubhouse turn. Besides, Todd
Pletcher never wins the Kentucky Derby, but he did saddle a Belmont winner two
years ago.
Energy level — D. Wayne Lukas announced Wednesday that both FLYING
PRIVATE (Fusaichi Pegasus) and LUV GOV (Ten Most Wanted) will both be contesting
the 141st running of the Belmont, and you can’t blame him for running Flying
Private, who dramatically improved upon his dismal Derby showing with a
fourth-place effort in the Preakness. Luv Gov is another story.
The colt might still be a maiden if he hadn’t caught a sloppy track in his
maiden race two starts back, and he couldn’t keep up with his stablemate, the
three-year-old filly Be Fair (Exchange Rate), while working in company with her
on Wednesday morning. Lukas had the proper spin, though.
“This morning, we more concerned about their energy level than with how they
finished out,” Lukas said.
I never knew that a horse’s energy level was more important than how they
finish.
Next week — I’ll offer a final preview of the Belmont next week.