Kentucky Derby 135

A strong field has been assembled for the $2 million Kentucky Derby (G1) at
Churchill Downs on Saturday, in what is undoubtedly one of the best casts put
together in recent years. A full field of 20 has been entered, as seems
customary this century, and post position left little drama for the favorites.

Recent injuries to three legitimate speed contenders — Quality Road (Elusive
Quality), The Pamplemousse (Kafwain) and Old Fashioned (Unbridled’s Song) —
have left this race somewhat paceless, meaning the start of the race could be as
crucial as it’s ever been. We feel that the best chance to win this is to be in
striking range early, and the deep closers will be at a disadvantage.

Our quandary this year and for many years to come is how to handle the
synthetic horses, and how well they can transition to the dirt at Churchill
Downs. While it seems obvious that a horse will ship in from a venue with an
artificial surface to win this storied event before long, we can’t justify
putting our wagering dollars on such an unknown commodity — even if they seem
to be an extremely classy bunch this year. We’re lumping most of the synthetic
runners together and sticking with the dirt contingent.

We see the Florida Derby (G1) as the key prep for this demanding test and
give the blue-blooded DUNKIRK (Unbridled’s Song) a big chance at Derby glory in
his fourth career start. The Todd Pletcher charge impressed with a rallying win
in his seven-furlong debut and turned heads when dominating a useful allowance
field at Gulfstream, where he was incredibly wide for the majority of the race.
His sweeping move approaching the final turn, which gave him a short lead
between calls, was phenomenal, and it’s possible that no horse but Quality Road
could have held him off on that day. The expected moderate early tempo and size
of the field do not bode particularly well for the gray, but he does have
tactical speed and with any luck, he’ll almost surely be in the mix late beneath
Edgar Prado.

Louisiana king FRIESAN FIRE (A.P. Indy) rolled through the spring with
dominant efforts in a trio of graded tests, most impressively a 7 1/4-length
romp in the Louisiana Derby (G2) last out. The Larry Jones pupil has excellent
positional speed and seems to want to run a route of ground, although we’ve
never seen him past 1 1/16 miles. The bay is well prepped for this and in our
minds got a well-deserved freshener prior to the biggest race of his career, so
a good effort can be expected. We still feel that he might be a notch below the
elite in here, but his ability to be in the race from the opening bell gives him
a big tactical edge over many of his counterparts. Gabriel Saez will pilot the
colt from post 6.

I WANT REVENGE (Stephen Got Even) has lifted his game to new heights since
switching to conventional dirt for Jeff Mullins, and it is impossible not to
consider the sophomore a big threat in this one. The Kentucky-bred lost his
first three starts before breaking his maiden in his two-turn debut, and he
finished a nose second in the subsequent CashCall Futurity (G1) to conclude his
freshman campaign. Third in the key Robert B. Lewis S. (G2) three back, the colt
was shipped to New York and voila, two most impressive graded wins followed,
registering 113 and 109 BRIS Speed numbers in the process. The trouble he
overcame in the Wood Memorial S. (G1) last out proved just how good this horse
can be. His best puts him right there under Joe Talamo, who shouldn’t be that
far back at any point in the race.

HOLD ME BACK (Giant’s Causeway) might be a synthetic freak or he may be
peaking at the right time, but we love his stride and forward progression, and
he could offer a good deal of value in the exotics. The Bill Mott trainee won
the first two starts of his career, both on Polytrack, prior to finishing
unplaced in the Remsen S. (G2) in his lone dirt try to date. A stylish victor of
the Lane’s End S. (G2) in his sophomore bow, the well-bred three-year-old closed
a good amount of ground when a clear second in the Blue Grass S. (G1) in what
appears to be a perfect prep for this legendary event. If he handles the dirt,
his presence will be felt. Kent Desormeaux has the riding assignment.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (Empire Maker) has won four graded stakes in succession
since arriving in the barn of Bob Baffert, capped by the Santa Anita Derby (G1)
last out. The Zayat homebred has a ton of things going for him: he’s conditioned
by one of the best in the sport, he gets two-time Eclipse winner Garrett Gomez
in the saddle, he’s bred to handle this trip comfortably, and he’s a very
talented, late foal, who is improving as he goes and may peak this spring. We
are concerned, though, about the animals he’s faced in his last pair and the
fact that dirt is foreign to him. There is no doubting that this one has a big
chance if he handles the surface, and if he wins this race, he looks like the
best Triple Crown threat among the 20. Gomez chose this one over Dunkirk.

CHOCOLATE CANDY (Candy Ride [Arg]) is another in the field with no dirt
experience that can either move up, or flop, in his dirt debut. The Jerry
Hollendorfer charge is a model of consistency and has proven to be among the top
three-year-olds on the West Coast, closing into a soft pace to register a strong
second-place showing in the Santa Anita Derby. We have a hunch that he may run
big on the dirt, but we don’t bet on hunches and will only include him in some
of our gimmicks. Mike Smith will guide the sophomore, who could end up being an
overlay.

PAPA CLEM (Smart Strike), a game winner of the Arkansas Derby (G2) most
recently, is another who wouldn’t be a total shock in this field for Gary Stute.
The bay colt just missed in the Robert B. Lewis earlier in the year and caught
our attention when second in the Louisiana Derby two back, fighting back for the
place when it appeared that he would be left for the show; he’s a fighter. With
the questionable pace scenario in here, this colt could find himself with a
perfect trip up close under Rafael Bejarano.

GENERAL QUARTERS (Sky Mesa) might be the story of the Derby due to his
owner/trainer Tom McCarthy, who has exactly one horse in his stable. The gray
has a sharp turn of foot, evidenced by his rallying wins in the Blue Grass and
Sam F. Davis S. (G3). He was much the best at Keeneland last out and has kept to
the original schedule that was mapped out for him earlier in the year, something
that we see as a huge positive. His last four dirt races have resulted in him
receiving BRIS Late Pace numbers of 102, 104, 106 and 107, so we expect to see
him showing late energy under Julien Leparoux. We can’t argue with anyone taking
a shot with General Quarters at an expected square price.

Grade 3 winner WEST SIDE BERNIE (Bernstein) exits a huge second in the Wood
Memorial, scoring a lifetime best 107 BRIS Speed number in the process for
conditioner Kelly Breen. The dark bay Kentucky-bred has never missed the board
in four dirt starts, three coming at the graded level, and we really like his
pattern entering this race. The confirmed late runner might not have a lot of
pace to run at on this occasion, which will likely hurt his chances for greatest
success, but a clean trip from the rail and some luck could vault him into the
top four beneath Stewart Elliott.

MR. HOT STUFF (Tiznow) has improved steadily this campaign for conditioner
Eoin Harty, most recently finishing third in the Santa Anita Derby. A full
brother to dual Grade 1 hero Colonel John, the late-running colt is a cut below
the best out West, and we have no idea if he will handle dirt or move up with
the added ground. We will use him at big odds to fill out some gimmicks in hopes
that he runs the race of his life. John Velazquez picks up the mount.

REGAL RANSOM (Distorted Humor), upset winner of the U.A.E. Derby (UAE-G2)
last out for Godolphin, could be the speed of the race and has never been worse
than second on dirt in his career. The expensive two-year-old purchase is a big
question mark to handle the 1 1/4 miles in here if he’s pressured, but a clear
early lead could find him hanging around for a share late with some improvement.
Alan Garcia retains the mount.

DESERT PARTY (Street Cry [Ire]) was a fast-closing second in the U.A.E. Derby
last out and has done little wrong in his lifetime as he hopes to give Godolphin
their first Kentucky Derby win. The winner of the Sanford S. (G2) as a juvenile,
the Kentucky-bred had a very productive winter in Dubai, posting two wins and a
placing, but we question what he was running against at Nad al Sheba and feel
that he needs substantial improvement to make an impact against these.
Interestingly, Godolphin’s retained jockey Frankie Dettori is not coming in for
the ride, with Ramon Dominguez taking the call instead. Moreover, the 19 post is
a concern.

Illinois Derby (G2) star MUSKET MAN (Yonaguska) notched a career best 104
BRIS Speed figure at Hawthorne last out but will face infinitely better horses
in this contest for Derek Ryan. We feel that the colt has a good amount of
ability and has a nice career ahead of him, but his questionable pedigree and
relatively weak competition to this point make him a dicey play in this group in
our opinion. But once again, we can’t fault a bettor playing a horse at big odds
who has won five of his six starts and exits the best race of his career. Eibar
Coa sticks with Musket Man.

Lane’s End second-placer FLYING PRIVATE (Fusaichi Pegasus) has improved a
good deal at three for D. Wayne Lukas, but he is winless in six races this
campaign and has never shown that he is up to the task of this demanding
contest. A repeat of his fifth in the Arkansas Derby (G2) won’t get it done on
this day from the treacherous 20 post. Robby Albarado has the call.

MINE THAT BIRD (Birdstone) was named Canada’s champion juvenile after winning
three stakes at Woodbine last season. Since relocating to Sunland Park this
year, he ran a game second in the Borderland Derby and most recently finished
fourth in the Sunland Derby. The courageous bay has never earned higher than a
90 BRIS Speed rating, meaning he must improve at least 10 lengths to challenge
these. We can’t see it, even with Calvin Borel in the irons.

SUMMER BIRD (Birdstone) flew home from last to finish third in the Arkansas
Derby in only his third career start for trainer Tim Ice. The maiden winner is
strictly, at this stage of his career, a one-run closer, and we can’t see him
circling 19 horses of this caliber at this point in his development.

NOWHERE TO HIDE (Vindication) was a last-minute entry for Nick Zito, and the
colt comes in off three consecutive fourth-place showings in the Illinois Derby,
Tampa Bay Derby (G3) and Risen Star S. (G3). The fact that he would not even
have been here, but for the unfortunate injuries to a few prime contenders, and
that he has failed to hit the board against winners, lead us to believe that
he’ll do well to split the field under Shaun Bridgmohan.

ADVICE (Chapel Royal) rolled home a visually impressive winner of the
Lexington S. (G2) last out for Pletcher, but his fifth-place showing in the
Sunland Derby two back left little to be desired. The Florida-bred is cut out to
be a miler, and while he’s run big on synthetic strips in the past, we have
little faith in his ability to handle this distance on dirt against this class
of runner. Rene Douglas will be in the irons.

Possible pacesetter JOIN IN THE DANCE (Sky Mesa) battled gamely to miss by a
few jumps in the Tampa Bay Derby and was last seen finishing fifth in the Blue
Grass for Pletcher. The speedy Kentucky-bred could be the early leader in the
race, but we can’t envision him hanging around for a share even if he dictates a
soft tempo. Chris DeCarlo will guide the longshot.

ATOMIC RAIN (Smart Strike) was once thought of as a promising prospect for
Breen, but the Grade 2-placed colt has been soundly beaten in his two graded
attempts this year. Joe Bravo has the assignment.