KENTUCKY DERBY REPORT
MAY 1, 2009
by James Scully
Saturday’s 135th running of the Kentucky Derby (G1) is a wide-open affair
with a quartet of top challengers — I WANT REVENGE (Stephen Got Even),
PIONEEROF THE NILE (Empire Maker), DUNKIRK (Unbridled’s Song) and FRIESAN FIRE
(A.P. Indy). I think the winner will be one of those four, but I won’t be
surprised to see a major upset.
Given the extreme conditions of the race, the best horse doesn’t always win
the Derby. These are relatively young three-year-olds who are forced to tack 126
pounds and stretch out to 1 1/4 miles for the first time. No other race in the
United States allows more than 14 starters, but there are 20 in the Derby field.
The bend into the first turn can be quite an adventure, and trouble lurks at
some point for most of the runners.
Friesan Fire is my choice. I like his draw (post 6) and the way he’s training
for Larry “Cowboy” Jones, who has saddled the last two Derby runner-ups, and
Friesan Fire should be able to afford traffic problems with his speed. There’s
not a lot of pace in the field.
Sire A.P. Indy is long overdue for a Derby winner, and Friesan Fire is bred
to run all day on his dam side. He also figures to move up on a wet track (rain
is expected Friday and Saturday). The bay colt was a smashing 7 1/4-length winner
of the Louisiana Derby (G2) in the slop, registering a 103 BRIS Speed and a 112
Late Pace rating.
I’ll look for a front-running score under Gabriel Saez.
Dunkirk may be the most talented three-year-old in the field, but he lacks
seasoning and figures to get either knocked around or forced to go very wide.
It’s a lot to overcome for the one-run closer, but the $3.7 million purchase may
be good enough to do it. Trainer Todd Pletcher is going to win a Derby
eventually (0-for-21 so far), and Dunkirk gives him a big chance to get over the
hump.
I Want Revenge overcame adversity to win the Wood Memorial (G1) and that
experience should serve him well on Saturday. He didn’t train forwardly when he
first arrived at Churchill Downs in early April, but the Jeff Mullins pupil
appears to have turned the corner this week and looks to be in fine fettle. With
his natural speed, I Want Revenge can put himself into the race from the start,
and he’s proven to be an excellent finisher, registering BRIS Late Pace numbers
of 112 and 118 in his last two starts.
Pioneerof the Nile is a beautiful mover in the mornings and dead game in the
afternoons, winning four straight stakes since being transferred to Bob Baffert
last fall, and he’s eligible to keep moving forward in his first dirt start.
He’ll need to do just that from a Speed rating perspective (his career-best is a
98), but I’m not putting too much stock in the synthetics numbers. Baffert was
recently elected to Thoroughbred racing’s Hall of Fame, and he can keep the
celebration going with a fourth Derby winner.
All four received good posts at Wednesday’s draw. I thought the only
legitimate contender with a bad starting position is DESERT PARTY (Street Cry
[Ire]) in gate 19.
I will include three other horses on the bottom of the exotics.
HOLD ME BACK (Giant’s Causeway), MR. HOT STUFF (Tiznow) and REGAL RANSOM
(Distorted Humor) all looked outstanding to me this week, and each one will
offer plenty of value.
Hold Me Back and Regal Ransom have already shown good class, winning the
Lane’s End S. (G2) and U.A.E. Derby (UAE-G2), respectively, and Santa Anita
Derby (G1) third-placer Mr. Hot Stuff appears to rounding into excellent form
for Eoin Harty. I loved the way Mr. Hot Stuff galloped out past the wire last
time, and he is quite the physical specimen in person.
Plan of Attack
Picking the Derby winner gives you bragging rights, but I want to hit a good
ticket as well. And I’m not going to spread all over the place to do it –
Friesan Fire has to run first or second for me to cash. Here’s my betting
strategy with a $200 bankroll:
$40 win and place Friesan Fire ($80)
$10 exactas: Friesan Fire over Dunkirk, I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile,
Hold Me Back, Regal Ransom and Mr. Hot Stuff ($60)
$5 exactas: Dunkirk, I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile, Hold Me Back, Regal
Ransom and Mr. Hot Stuff over Friesan Fire ($30)
$1 trifecta part-wheel key: Friesan Fire over Dunkirk, I Want Revenge,
Pioneerof the Nile, Hold Me Back, Regal Ransom and Mr. Hot Stuff ($30)
Enjoy the race!