Preakness 134

Pioneerof the Nile (outside) appeared the Derby winner heading into the stretch run (Patrick Tyrrell/Horsephotos.com)

Kentucky Derby (G1) runner-up PIONEEROF THE NILE (Empire Maker) answered the
dirt question with a game performance at Churchill Downs two weeks ago, and the
classy sophomore is our top pick to bag his third Grade 1 win in here for Bob
Baffert. The Zayat homebred ran against a bias in the Derby, traveling wide
throughout before taking the lead in early stretch, and while he tired some in
the latter stages, his tenacity found him fending off a pair of threats to
record the place spot under Garrett Gomez. With excellent tactical speed and an
ability to run all day, we feel that the dark bay is poised to pick up his first
classic race, with possibly another to follow three weeks from now. We know this
much — if it comes down to a photo, this colt will win.

Words can’t describe what RACHEL ALEXANDRA (Medaglia d’Oro) did in the
Kentucky Oaks (G1) most recently, gliding home by more than 20 lengths in an
unforgettable showing. The sterling filly has been an absolute machine this year
while humbling four straight fields, all without being hit with the whip or
asked for anything in the stretch. The three-year-old sensation has all of the
tools to win again and wouldn’t surprise by crossing the line in first, but we
do have some trepidation. The filly, as noted by previous conditioner Hal
Wiggins, seemingly runs better with four to five weeks between races, and this will
be her first start versus males. She is sure to face significantly more
pressure, not only early, but late as well, than she has seen this season, and
the trainer switch to Steve Asmussen may have taken the lass out of her comfort
zone in her old routine and surroundings. With that said, she might still drill
this field under Calvin Borel from the widest post.

Will Mine That Bird be wearing Black-Eyed Susans Saturday? (Jim Tyrrell/Horsephotos.com)

Whatever one thinks about the shocking late effort of Mine That Bird in the
Derby, it still seems unwise to dismiss a colt that beat a handful of these for
fun just 14 days back. The talented gelding was rounding up to a peak
performance on Derby Day, and while no one could have envisioned such a
dominating race, it made sense that the colt would have moved up in his third
try off the shelf. The Canadian champion will probably drop well back early
before making one run into the stretch, and while we could see him regress after
his last, he simply might have turned the corner and could be this good. We will
use the enigma in everything. Mike Smith inherits a Kentucky Derby winner, who
breaks from the two post.

TERRAIN (Sky Mesa) is an incredibly consistent performer for trainer Tom
Amoss and has been freshened for this test. The Grade 3 victor has put in a pair
of nice efforts this campaign, when fourth in the Blue Grass S. (G1) and third in
the Louisiana Derby (G2). The late runner always puts in a run in the lane, and
while he’s never proven that he can sustain that run at a distance like this, a
well-timed move could see him challenge for the gimmicks at a nice price beneath
local pilot Jeremy Rose.

Derby third MUSKET MAN (Yonaguska) outran his odds and defied the pedigree
experts at Churchill for Derek Ryan, and the gritty colt looks like another
exotics threat in this field. A winner in five of his seven lifetime tries, with
two third-place finishes, the steady sophomore did receive a very nice trip in
the Derby and his tactical speed allows him to avoid trouble, which could be the
key in a field of this size. We’re not sure if we’ll use this one on top in the
exotics, but his inclusion in the vertical gimmicks is imperative. Eibar Coa,
who rode a sharp race in the Derby, stays atop the colt.

Big Drama will try to give a career-best performance (Lauren Pomeroy/Horsephotos.com)

BIG DRAMA (Montbrook) has done little wrong in his career for David Fawkes
and rates a wire-to-wire threat from the rail in this tilt. The Florida Stallion
Series sweeper concluded his juvenile campaign with a tally in the Delta Jackpot
S. (G3), and he ran huge when crossing the line first (he was disqualified and
placed second) in the Swale S. (G2) at Gulfstream Park in his lone 2009 race to
date. We find this Florida-bred colt as the most interesting horse in the field
in a lot of ways, because he’s proven his brilliance and he’s sure to be a
relatively big price. The speedy sophomore is another who might know his fate by
the time they reach the first turn. John Velazquez will guide the sophomore.

TAKE THE POINTS (Even the Score) was wisely kept out of the Derby by his
connections and geared up for this race. The Todd Pletcher pupil was a fine
allowance winner over dirt at Gulfstream and stayed on well while never
threatening Pioneerof the Nile twice in California. We simply don’t see this
colt being fast enough early to keep touch with the speed, nor does he posses the kick
to outrun the closers late, so we’ll leave him off our tickets.

Flying Private is one of two Lukas hopefuls (Ed Van Meter/Horsephotos.com)

FLYING PRIVATE (Fusaichi Pegasus) might have lost all chance in the Derby in
the post draw on Wednesday, when he was planted in the 20 post, but the D. Wayne
Lukas trainee has never run a race on conventional dirt that would frighten
anything in this field. While it can backfire when dismissing the “Coach” in a
Triple Crown event, we must do so in this well-meant cast.

LUV GOV (Ten Most Wanted) broke his maiden in fine fashion on Derby Day for
Lukas, and in a bold move, the colt is added to this field. We liked
the 99 BRIS Speed figure this one earned for his win, but to think that he can
conquer this race would be a slap in the face to his more accomplished and
proven foes. We can’t endorse the bay.