PREAKNESS REPORT
MAY 7, 2009
by James Scully
A large field is shaping up for next Saturday’s Preakness S. (G1), including
possibly the top four finishers from the Kentucky Derby (G1). Runner-up
PIONEEROF THE NILE (Empire Maker) is the only member of the quartet not yet
confirmed, but he’s expected at Pimlico and will be the favorite unless RACHEL
ALEXANDRA (Medaglia d’Oro) shows up.
A spectacular 20 1/4-length heroine of the Kentucky Oaks (G1), Rachel
Alexandra is reportedly on the verge of being sold to Jess Jackson’s Stonestreet
Stables. If the deal goes through, she’s expected to move from Hal Wiggins to
the barn of Steve Asmussen and be supplemented for $100,000 to the Triple Crown.
Rachel Alexandra will create quite a buzz if she shows up at Old Hilltop.
Many people believe she would’ve easily captured the Derby a day later, but
the filly didn’t have to deal with any problems against a small group of
overmatched rivals in the Oaks. She may have gotten roughed up during the early
stages of the Derby, and I applauded her connections for their discretion;
there’s plenty of big prizes left to win the rest of this year. The bay lass
garnered a 111 BRIS Speed rating in the Oaks, one point better than MINE THAT
BIRD (Birdstone) a day later.
I would rather see Rachel Alexandra wait and point for her first showdown
against males in the Belmont S. (G1). That would give her more time to prepare
for the major class hike, and there’s no doubt in my mind that she’ll handle 1
1/2 miles. Jockey Calvin Borel struggles to pull her up following her morning
breezes, and Rachel Alexandra didn’t want to stop at the finish line of the
Oaks, continuing to roll around the clubhouse turn. She wasn’t tired and wanted
to just keep on running.
Borel fits Rachel Alexandra like a glove, and the jockey situation will be a
big issue if she winds up being sold. Borel did ride some horses for Asmussen at
Oaklawn Park this year, so he’ll probably keep the mount if she switches barns.
Her new connections would be villains if they sack the popular 42-year-old
Cajun.
Rachel Alexandra is the most exciting horse in training, and she’ll provide a
huge boost to the middle of leg of the Triple Crown with her participation.
If she does show up, Pioneerof the Nile will be a tough rival for her to handle.
The Bob Baffert-trained colt looked like a winner midway on the far turn of the
Kentucky Derby and jockey Garrett Gomez appeared to have a lot of horse left
entering the stretch. The Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner came up a little empty,
checking in 6 3/4 lengths back of the winner, but he still battled gamely for
the place, outfinishing third-placer MUSKET MAN (Yonaguska) by a nose in deep
stretch.
The Zayat Stables’ homebred registered a career-best 103 BRIS Speed rating in
the Derby, a vast improvement over his previous career-best. Pioneerof the Nile
brought a four-stakes winning streak into the race, but he hadn’t earned a
Speed rating better than 96 in any of those starts. After being easily dismissed
last time — it’s difficult to support a horse with numbers 10+ points lower
than his main rivals — Pioneerof the Nile is now appealing to Speed-rating
enthusiasts.
He still hasn’t raced on a fast dirt track, but that’s not a serious concern
given how he trained over fast conditions at Churchill Downs. However, there
still is a little doubt. Sire Empire Maker relished a wet track when capturing
the Belmont S. (G1), so it was no surprise to see Pioneerof the Nile handle the
muddy conditions last Saturday.
Experience was the common denominator for the top three Derby finishers. In
this era of more and more lightly raced horses, Mine That Bird, Pioneerof the
Nile and Musket Man were more of a throwback to Derby runners of years past.
Eleven of the 19 Derby starters in 2009 were eligible for at least a non-winners
of the three “other than” allowance, and those horses wound up struggling for
the most part. Fourth-placer PAPA CLEM (Smart Strike) was the only finisher in
the top five without at least four wins in his career.
After watching Big Brown make a mockery of the experience angle last year, I
was glad to see the Derby return to form in a sense. I got suckered into believing
that the inexperienced Dunkirk (Unbridled’s Song) had a big chance in the Derby,
but those kinds of horses are a terrible bet in the Derby regardless of their
talent. Dunkirk’s supporters will blame his bad effort on the troubled trip, but
he was the perfect candidate to suffer trouble. Horses with no bottom to them
are generally not equipped to handle the demands of such an extreme test.
I’ll preview the Preakness next week.