ARLINGTON PARK NOTEBOOK
JULY 24, 2009
by Frank Cotolo
What a great debut for the Arlington Notebook, handing out a stakes winner.
We gave out PEACH BREW (Milwaukie Brew) as our choice to win Saturday’s Arlington Oaks,
a Grade 3 turf event, and the victory was worth $18.80. Let’s encourage that
trend in the stakes to come this season and for our horses-to-watch list.
Completing the “Oaks” exacta was a 21-1 shot who shipped in from Iowa just
like the winner. What do they put in the grass out there? That exacta paid $244.
It was a 47-race week from July 15 through July 19 on the Polytrack and
Arlington turf. The menu was filled with a good share of different classes at
different distances and surfaces with a few recent indications to note.
First, sister-track Churchill Downs has been offering some shippers. Many of
those horses are new to Polytrack or have not been competing upon it recently.
Yet, they are performing well on the artificial surface. Though most have only
picked up place and show checks (a winner or two has surfaced), it is a wake-up
call for handicappers to begin paying attention to Churchill’s first-time
travelers to Arlington Heights, Illinois.
Also note that horses returning to races at Arlington after layoffs since
racing at the Hawthorne meet have come back with a hunger to win. Since we began
this season’s “Notebook,” a pair of layoff runners from Hawthorne have won,
paying 14-1 and 7-1 in a small group of a dozen or so starters. That is a
flat-bet profit over the two-weeks of racing, featuring less than 20 races
including the condition. It is certainly not an empirically sound sample, but
this is the best time to sensationalize upon it.
Statistics
In just the most recent week of racing, 27 percent of all winners were
favorites. The weekly figure is close to the 30-percent average the track is
offering. Applause to handicappers is in order since some of these races have
been severely competitive.
There is something to be said about breaking up the statistics into weekly
numbers, since finding the beginning of a trend certainly affords more chances
to sensationalize on win prices than does waiting for a trend to literally
become a trend. Certainly some prospective patterns never develop into trends
but, as indicated above with the current Hawthorne-layoff gimmick, a few winners
at big prices can assist in a player’s profiteering.
Nick Canani-conditioned runners went from 44-percent winners to 50-percent
winners, even though his nine winners put him last in the standings by earnings.
Second-place Danny Miller is still strong with 38-percent winners, and Dale
Bennett scores a 35-percent tally through the meet. All of these are more
profitable than the top guy, Hugh Robertson, who has 25-percent winners.
Coming up
Another turf stakes is featured this weekend. On Saturday, the $50,000 Gaily
Gaily is a 1 1/2-mile journey for fillies and mares.
A dozen will go to post, including BALLYNOE (Distorted Humor), INOPLOV
(Volponi), IT’S TIFFEN TIME (Najran), LEMONETTE (Lemon Drop Kid), COMMUNIQUE
(Smart Strike), WOODFOR GIRL (Honour and Glory), PEINTURE FRAICHE (Peintre
Celebre), CONFINED (Mojave Moon), POSITIVELYCHARMING (Pulpit), CAVAN THUNDER
(Jump Start), LABAR (Bianconi) and GRASSY NELLIE (Belong to Me).
We like Communique, who finished second in the Bewitch S. (G3) on the
Keeneland lawn this year. The five-year-old mare, winner of the 2008 Bewitch,
also finished second in the 2008 Beverly D. S. (G1) and has been racing strongly
on the grass this season.
HORSES TO WATCH
Wednesday (7/15)
3RD — CHURUBUSCO (Deputy Commander) was hot on the rail, closing strongly
for second to a wire-to-wire winner, the only one of the day, in a mile race.
8TH –CHARLIE BABY (Cartwright) was unruly before loading and never ran a
step when leaving. This one is a clunker, toss it out, wait for his next one.
Thursday (7/16)
4TH — MONASHEE SONG (Monashee Mountain) had a good opening half, getting to
the lead, but got caught at the mile. This is speed worth watching for on
another day.
5TH — SINGING ROSE (Congaree) was in from Churchill (see notes above) and
got a good taste of Polytrack while chasing three wide for most of the six
panels.
8TH — CABERNEIGH (E Dubai) picked it up too late to win, but was quite
threatening at 17-1 on the turf from the 10 post when he did make a go of it.
Friday (7/17)
4TH — CURLY CAMELI (Petionville) got going late with a very wide rush,
gaining some.
8TH — EXPLOIT THE SUN (Exploit) dueled while chasing the leader, was wide
and spent late from the mile task.
Saturday (7/18)
1ST — NICK’S GIRL (Ecton Park) is a Churchill traveler who we have watched
before and now takes on Polytrack, closing like a giant at six furlongs and
getting claimed. New connections will have her sharp staying in or out of jail.
4TH — GREEN IS FOR GO (With Approval) got stalled in a whole bunch of turf
traffic, getting touched and disturbed, blocked and bothered, all of which
ruined what may have been a winning run at 8-1.