HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
JULY 24, 2009
by Dick Powell
The New York Racing Association announced this week a $500,000 guaranteed
late Pick 4 on each Saturday during this year’s Saratoga meet. This caught my
attention and I went to last year’s charts to see if we could find any
pari-mutuel opportunities.
The danger for NYRA is that if we get wet weather in Saratoga and races are
washed off the turf, they could be left with short fields and betting on the
Pick 4 will be below the guarantee. Plus, since it is the late Pick Four on
Saturday, there will be graded stakes races that often attract short fields.
If any of these circumstances happen, there’s a chance that the $500,000
guarantee will not be met and NYRA will have to make up the difference. This
becomes a similar situation to a carryover where you could have a negative
takeout rate.
For instance, if only $400,000 is bet on the late Pick 4 on a Saturday this
year at Saratoga, NYRA has to seed the pot with $100,000, or 25 percent of the
pool. With the Pick 4 takeout being 26 percent at NYRA, the effective takeout in
this scenario is only 1 percent.
A $500,000 late Pick 4 pari-mutuel pool sounds like a lot of money, but this
is Saratoga so let’s look at the record. Below are the pool sizes for each of
the six late Pick Fours on Saturdays last year at Saratoga:
| July 26 | $734,523 | |
| August 2 | $443,498 | |
| August 9 | $369,017 | |
| August 16 | $516,334 | |
| August 23 | $1,497,375 | |
| August 30 | $659,910 |
Clearly, forget the first Saturday and fifth which is when the Whitney (G1)
and Travers S. (G1) are run, respectively. No matter what the circumstances, the
nation-wide handle is too strong to offer any chance that the $500,000 guarantee
will not be met. The final Saturday’s late Pick Four was also strong, but it had
fields of 11, 10, 7 and 10 so maybe it might be vulnerable under the right
circumstances.
The real opportunity could come in weeks two and three. Last year, the late
Pick Four pool in weeks two and three did not even come close to $500,000. With
this year’s $500,000 pool guarantee, you could assume that betting would have
been higher, but there’s still a chance that the above circumstances — races
switched off the turf and/or short fields in high-class stakes races — could
result in the guarantee not being met.
My strategy will be in weeks two and three to see what the field sizes are.
If there is poor weather and a turf race has to be switched to the main track,
with the usual number of scratches, or a graded stakes comes up with an
overwhelming favorite and short field, I’ll take a shot. You will not know the
pool size of the late Pick Four until it begins, but at least we know that weeks
two and three could be vulnerable.
The reason that I am willing to go to great lengths to find a situation where
the guarantee is not met is my constant search to bet on horse racing with the
lowest possible takeout. You would think that everyone that plays horses
seriously does the same thing, but their behavior says otherwise.
The question I get asked the most is, “how do I bet?” The answer is pretty
simple if you are trying to bet into the lowest takeout rates. I am a “win”
bettor. If the odds are high enough, I’ll play a horse to “win/place” and I
protect my “win” bets with exactas. If there are two races in a row that I like
I might play a daily double. I only play the Pick Six if there is a carryover
unless it is at NYRA, which has a low takeout rate when there is no carryover.
Forget the rest.
Too many of us have become distracted by bet minimums and not bet takeouts.
So what if a superfecta has a 10-cent minimum? The takeout rate is at least 25
percent and not worth it for me.
At NYRA, the takeout on win and place is 16 percent and exactas/daily doubles
are 18.5 percent. The Pick Six is only 16 percent when there is no carryover. At
Del Mar, the takeout on win and place is 15.43 percent and all exotic wagers
have a takeout of 20.68 percent. A little higher than I want on exactas, but
very low on win and/or place. Why play anywhere else?
When you consider that there are many times when the Pick Sixes that I play
have little or negative takeout, my blended takeout rate has to be around 12 to
15 percent. Yes, I’ll venture out to tracks that have higher takeouts, but I
stick to win and/or place betting as much as possible.
Read the racing blogs and takeout is a hot issue; probably the hottest. But
players’ behavior is often different from what they say. How many players go to
a simulcast site and bet racetracks without having a clue what the takeout is?
Management sees this time and time again and draws the conclusion that takeout
is not that important and it can be raised without serious consequences. And
often times they are right. We say one thing and do the other.