ARLINGTON NOTEBOOK
JULY 31, 2009
by Frank Cotolo
There goes another 47-race week, from July 22 through July 26, with a
30-percent winning favorites average. But the public has done far better than
that if you include second choices, including many who were only pennies off of
being the choice. Form, as related to betting public using
fundamental handicapping, is holding up.
Of all the races, including turf and Polytrack, only 13 percent of the
winners were able to do it wire to wire. Come-from-behind and stalking styles
ruled last week, and not always with strong public
choices.
So where are the big prices originating? Churchill Downs’ shippers continue
to make a dent in the top three finishers. Calculating only July 22 through July
26, the Kentucky invaders provided one win (not a public choice), six seconds
and three thirds from 24 starters. That is a competitive and exclusive-to-Brisnet
figure.
The longer layoff horses we are watching are the returnees from Hawthorne.
Only three of them appeared in the 47 races and all three ran out of the money.
They still warrant watching.
Trainer numbers
Last week’s numbers were great for two of the 32 winning trainers. You read
correctly. Of the 47 races, there were 32 winning conditioners, which made the
victories of two very impressive.
Moises Yanez took five of the races, the most any last week. Closely behind,
with four winners, was Frank Kirby.
Make a note that one horse came in from Aqueduct, trained by Wayne Catalano,
to win.
Coming up
Our next notebook will provide a preview of the August 8 International Racing
Festival, which includes the Arlington Million (G1).
Meanwhile, this Saturday’s feature is the $50,000-added Rossi Gold S. for
three-year-olds and up going 1 3/16 miles.
Top weight will be STREAM CAT (Black Minnaloushe), whose surprise win in
the Tokyo City Cup (G3) at Santa Anita in March came at the expense of the
heavily favored Big Booster (Accelerator). But
Stream Cat, trained by Patrick Biancone, followed that up with off a
fourth-place finish at Hollywood Park in the Gallant Man H. and will enter the
Rossi Gold off an unplaced effort in the Arlington H. (G3).
PUBLIC SPEAKER (Distorted Humor) and TELLING (A.P. Indy) are also in here and
both finished ahead of Stream Cat in the Arlington H. Telling,
trained by Steve Hobby, could be the best value here, in a field that
also includes DEMARCATION (Gulch), LEMONADE KID (Lemon Drop Kid), RUMOR HAS IT
(Awesome Again), MY HAPPINESS (Arg) (Festin [Arg]), GREYCLIFF EXCHANGE (Exchange Rate)
and MAJOR RHYTHM (Rhythm).
HORSES TO WATCH
Wednesday (7/22)
2ND — SMARTY MATT JONES (Thunderello) got off well from the 8 post, dueled midway and then
went four wide before getting tired.
4TH — MR GUSKA (Yonaguska) set the pace hotly, led and then tired.
9TH — INDEMAND (Saarland) held it all back until very late, then rushed to close and get
third at 13-1.
Thursday (7/23)
2ND — DEMI N DIAMONDS (Demidoff) began sharply and was good for a while stalking the
pace at a hefty 8-1.
5TH — SO ON AND SO FORTH (High Yield) made a giant rush to the top from the 12 post in
this one-mile turf maiden special weight event but could not sustain the lead, at
good showing for a 25-1 shot.
Friday (7/24)
3RD — ERNEST DREAM (Belek) had a ton of speed at 18-1 from the 11 post in this grass
event, going right to the top and paying for it late with heavy legs.
7TH — ROYAL HIGHLAND (Royal Academy) came in from Canterbury and had good early foot on the
grass going 1 1/16 miles.
Saturday (7/25)
1ST — OPEN AND CLOSED (Najran) put in a fine first performance, unusually backed to
5-1, and should come back stronger in next.
2ND — ATHEIST (Devil Hid Due) displayed some courage battling in the stretch
and deserves another shot, perhaps next time higher than 4-1.
6TH — TIMELESS MISS (Cape Canaveral) left well from post 8 and was quite competitive until
hanging up late in the stretch.
8TH –SUDDENLY SILVER (Silver Ghost) was another shipper from Canterbury and was very strong
first time here at 19-1, getting caught on the lead.
Sunday (7/26)
6TH — ROUNDABOUT (Distorted Humor) had a good debut in this seven-furlong
maiden special weight test,
closing late on legitimate speed at 13-1.
8TH — CLICKER (Sky Mesa) needed this one over the Polytrack, coming from Churchill.
Looked like a good prep.