HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
SEPTEMBER 4, 2009
by Dick Powell
RACHEL ALEXANDRA (Medaglia d’Oro) mania makes an appearance at Saratoga on
Saturday for the first time and is adding much-needed excitement to the closing
week of the 141st Saratoga race meet. Training up here for the past two months,
she finally makes a race appearance at the historic Saratoga racetrack and will
try to avoid joining the list of champions who have been upset here.
Run under weight-for-ages conditions, Rachel receives eight pounds from each
of her older, male rivals going her favorite distance of 1 1/8 miles. This
year’s Woodward S. (G1) has attracted a field of eight, which is a lot more than
many of us thought it would get when owner Jess Jackson announced that this
would be her next start. Give the NYRA race office credit for getting the
Woodward to fill as well as it did and give NYRA credit for increasing the purse
from $500,000 to $750,000, meaning that second place is now worth $150,000.
At nine furlongs, I don’t see Rachel getting beat. Her worst recent race in
terms of BRIS Speed ratings was the Preakness (G1) when she earned a 105 going 1
3/16th miles. Her win in the Haskell Invitational (G1) garnered a career best
116 Speed rating and the race was validated when runner-up SUMMER BIRD
(Birdstone) was a dominant winner of last Saturday’s Travers S. (G1).
Some of the horses in the Woodward could give her a race if she is at the
bottom of her form cycle and they are at their top, but they are all picking up
significant weight from their last starts so it seems unlikely. But, it’s still
a horse race so let’s look at the field.
Nick Zito sends out an entry of DA’ TARA (Tiznow) and COOL COAL MAN
(Mineshaft). Da’ Tara, hero of last year’s Belmont S. (G1), has not won a race
since and was beaten by 49 lengths last out. Cool Coal Man had a terrific win
over the track last out here in a minor stakes race going Saturday’s distance in
excellent time. I would think that Da’ Tara goes to the front to set a fast pace
that Cool Coal Man can stalk.
BULLSBAY (Tiznow) won the Whitney H. (G1) a month ago here at nearly 19-1
odds. When he won the race, trainer Graham Motion indicated that they would pass
the Woodward if Rachel were to enter but here he is in the entries. His Whitney
win was excellent and the move he made around the turn to catch the leaders
showed he belongs with these. Jeremy Rose rides back from post two.
MACHO AGAIN (Macho Uno) has run well at Saratoga before with a win in the Jim
Dandy (G2) last year and a second in the Whitney last out. He seems to be more
consistent this year and, if you isolate his nine-furlong races, his late kick
could be dangerous in here.
IT’S A BIRD (Birdonthewire) won the Oaklawn H. (G2) earlier this year only to
be disqualified due to a drug positive. His race in the Suburban H. (G2) was
very poor, but he’s another who runs his best at nine furlongs. My problem with
him is would we even be discussing him if he were not trained by Marty Wolfson?
ASIATIC BOY (Arg) (Not For Sale) was once a major horse who could give any
runner in training a run for their money. He was a distant second in last year’s
Dubai World Cup (UAE-G1) but unplaced this year. His two starts in the United
States this year were good but I don’t get any feeling that he’s on the improve.
He’s the only older horse in here that has carried weight with success in the
past.
PAST THE POINT (Indian Charlie) loves this track with two wins and two
seconds in four starts. He was a good second in last year’s Woodward and prepped
for this with a sharp win going seven furlongs in good time.
If I thought there was any kind of chance that Rachel could lose the Woodward
I would bet against her. Instead, I am going to make a strong exacta with Rachel
on top of Past the Point. Even from his outside post, I expect he will get a
decent trip from there, and with his proven ability over the Saratoga main track
I’m looking for him to run second and complete a decent exacta. By decent, I
mean around $16.
What will be fascinating to watch about the Woodward will be how the other
riders battle for position going into the first turn. With Rachel in post 3,
does anyone from the outside try to beat her into the first turn and tighten
things up? It’s unlikely since most of the field are midpack runners or deep
closers, leaving Da’ Tara in front and Rachel stalking him. But at Saratoga,
anything can happen.