CLASSIC DIARY
OCTOBER 24, 2009
by James Scully
Call it the heart of a line-up. In baseball, the New York
Yankees come at you with Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez and Hideki Matsui in the
3-4-5 spot, and the Philadelphia Phillies can counter with their own “Murderers’
Row” of Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Jayson Werth. Europe is poised to make a
big impact upon this year’s Breeders’ Cup at Santa Anita, with hot prospects
scattered throughout the 14-race program, and three top Classic (G1) contenders —
RIP VAN WINKLE (Galileo [Ire]), MASTERCRAFTSMAN (Danehill Dancer) and
TWICE OVER (Observatory) — represent the heart of the International team.
It will be a popular trifecta box. The 2008 Classic was a humbling experience
for the home team as England’s Raven’s Pass and Ireland’s Henrythenavigator
proved superior over the Pro-Ride, and the foreign raiders are
potentially stronger this time around. The American runners aren’t viewed
favorably this year. On dirt or synthetics, our three-year-old males are
generally considered mediocre, and the older horses are held in lower regard.
America didn’t have a horse in contention inside the final furlong last year,
and many expect to see more of the same on November 7. Here is a profile of the
European Classic contenders:
Rip Van Winkle is the likely Classic favorite for Aidan
O’Brien. An impressive 2 1/2-length scorer in the one-mile Sussex S. (Eng-G1) two
starts back, the three-year-old colt exits a commendable score in the one-mile Queen
Elizabeth II S. (Eng-G1) at Ascot, winning by 1 1/4 lengths with plenty left in
the tank. In his lone attempt at 10 furlongs, he finished an excellent second to
Sea the Stars in the July 4 Eclipse S. (Eng-G1), 4 1/2 lengths clear of Breeders’
Cup Turf (G1) hero Conduit (Ire) (Dalakhani) in third.
O’Brien has saddled two Classic runners-up, Henrythenavigator and Giant’s
Causeway, and Coolmore is on a mission to win the Breeders’ Cup’s centerpiece
event. Rip Van Winkle heads a dynamite one-two punch for the powerful Irish
outfit. His BRIS Class ratings will be the best in the field, and stable rider
Johnny Murtagh will likely opt for the colt over Mastercraftsman.
Mastercraftsman poses a legitimate threat to his stablemate. Winner of the
Irish Two Thousand Guineas (Ire-G1) at the Curragh and St James’s Palace S. (Eng-G1) at Royal Ascot, the O’Brien colt gave Sea the Stars
perhaps his biggest tussle when finishing a length second in the Juddmonte
International S. (Eng-G1) in August. The champion juvenile owns experience on an
all-weather track, tuning up for the Classic with a five-length romp in the
Diamond S. (Ire-G3) at Dundalk on October 2, and figures to relish the 1
1/4-mile distance.
Twice Over doesn’t have the name recognition of the Coolmore horses, but the
English-based colt merits serious respect off his top-class victory in the 1
1/4-mile Champion S. (Eng-G1) at Newmarket. The four-year-old couldn’t be doing
any better for trainer Henry Cecil, winning three straight since receiving a
freshening this summer, and the 10-furlong specialist will be a live contender
in the Breeders’ Cup.
American Pride: The American side is not without hope. SUMMER BIRD
(Birdstone) padded his growing resume with a superb one-length victory in
the October 3 Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), becoming the first horse since Easy
Goer in 1989 to win the Belmont S. (G1), Travers S. (G1) and Gold Cup, and he earned a
whopping 112 BRIS Speed rating in the slop at Belmont Park. His recent Speed
numbers are outstanding, and the improving colt is a true 1 1/4-mile performer.
We may not have seen his best yet.
In order for Summer Bird to challenge, he’ll need to handle the Pro-Ride.
That looms as a potential problem, given how Summer Bird was transferred from
John Sadler’s barn in Southern California after reportedly having trouble with
the synthetic track, but he’ll have three weeks to get acclimated to the surface
and is a different, much more mature horse now than he was last year. The
Pro-Ride is potentially a non-issue, but it’s difficult to shake the sneaking
suspicion that it will hold him back.
QUALITY ROAD (Elusive Quality) will look to get over the hump at 1 1/4
miles while making his first start on a synthetic track in the Breeders’ Cup.
He’s been brilliant at shorter distances, winning one-turn events like the
Fountain of Youth S. (G2) and Amsterdam S. (G2) with complete authority, and
established himself as the early Kentucky Derby (G1) favorite with a smart score
in the Florida Derby (G1). Foot problems derailed his Triple Crown plans, and
the Todd Pletcher-trained colt has dropped his last two starts at 10 furlongs,
finishing second in the Gold Cup and third in the Travers. He’s bred to handle
the distance, but the dark bay must still prove it.
Note that Quality Road shares the same sire with Raven’s Pass, who made his
synthetic debut in the Classic and had never won at 1 1/4 miles.
EINSTEIN (Brz) (Spend a Buck) and GIO PONTI (Tale of the Cat)
are Grade 1 turf winners who have shown an affinity for the Pro-Ride. The former
recorded a convincing one-length victory in the Santa Anita H. (G1) earlier this
year and exits a neck second in Pacific Classic (G1) at Del Mar. The Helen
Pitts-Blasi trainee runs well fresh beneath Julien Leparoux.
Gio Ponti reeled off four straight Grade 1 wins on the sod before coming up a
little short in the 1 1/2-mile Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational (G1). Ten
furlongs is an optimal distance for the four-year-old, who captured the one-mile
Sir Beaufort S. (G3) in dramatic, last-to-first fashion over the Pro-Ride last
December, and the Christophe Clement charge will be running late under Garrett
Gomez.
ZENYATTA (Street Cry [Ire]) is as dangerous as any of the
American-based horses, but her status remains up in the air. Her connections
will decide between a title defense in the Ladies’ Classic (G1) or a first
meeting against males. The tremendous closer loves the Pro-Ride, winning all
three attempts with consummate ease, and she’s got nothing left to prove against
fillies and mares. She deserves the chance to become the first female Classic
winner.
Goodwood effect: GITANO HERNANDO (GB) (Hernando [Fr]) posted an
improbable 18-1 upset in the local Classic prep at Oak Tree, the October 10
Goodwood S. (G1), but is not under Breeders’ Cup consideration. His connections
will point toward the Dubai World Cup (UAE-G1) in March. Runner-up COLONEL JOHN
(Tiznow) will need to improve significantly to challenge and is probably
better suited to the Dirt Mile (G1). Third-placer RICHARD’S KID (Lemon Drop
Kid) also looks too slow for Classic rivals, and the Marathon would probably be
a better fit for the long-distance runner.
MINE THAT BIRD (Birdstone) provided little reason for optimism with a
dull sixth in the Goodwood, his second straight dismal effort over the track
following a last-place finish in the 2008 Juvenile (G1), but bettors will be
happy to see the popular gelding in the Classic field. Knocked down to 3-1 in
the Goodwood, the Kentucky Derby (G1) winner will have his supporters regardless
of circumstances.
Next year: ETCHED (Forestry) improved to five-for-five in the
United States with a comfortable neck score in the October 16 Meadowlands Cup
(G2), and the Godolphin colorbearer is one to watch for next year at Churchill
Downs. Bred to excel on both turf and dirt, the long-striding colt appears to
own a very bright future if he stays healthy, and he’s scheduled to make his
next start in the Clark H. (G2) at Churchill on November 27.
Dirt Mile outlook: Godolphin is loaded for the Dirt Mile, with a trio
of top contenders in MIDSHIPMAN (Unbridled’s Song), GIROLAMO (A.P.
Indy) and REGAL RANSOM (Distorted Humor). Midshipman wrapped up
championship honors with his victory in the 2008 Juvenile, and the once-beaten
colt returned from a near 11-month absence with an encouraging performance at
Belmont, netting a 101 BRIS Speed rating for his 3 1/4-length decision over a
tough group of allowance/optional claiming rivals.
Jerome H. (G2) winner Girolamo will be the one to beat if he handles his
synthetic debut. Since returning to the races in August, he’s recorded three
sensational wins in New York. Regal Ransom left quite an impression in the Super
Derby (G2) last time, winning easily on the front end by 1 1/4 lengths, and the
one-mile distance is a good fit for the talented colt. However, Regal Ransom ran
poorly over the Pro-Ride in last year’s Norfolk S. (G1).
FAMOUS NAME (Dansili [GB]), who exits a narrow third in the 1 1/8-mile
Prix Dollar S. (Fr-G2) at Longchamp, rates as the top Euro prospect. The
four-year-old colt has turned in several top-class performances at a mile this
season for Dermot Weld.
Marathon outlook: The 1 3/4-mile Marathon will feature a deeper field
that last year when Zappa (Afternoon Deelites) was the 3-1 second choice among
eight rivals. MUHANNAK (Ire) (Chester House), who posted a 12-1 upset in
the 2008 inaugural edition, doesn’t look like much of a threat in his title
defense.
St Leger (Eng-G1) winner MASTERY (Sulamani [Ire]) and King
Edward VII (Eng-G2) victor FATHER TIME (Dansili [Ire]) will be the big
guns from Europe, and NITE
LIGHT (Thunder Gulch) is one of the leading contenders on the American side.
Upcoming: The next installment will feature a final analysis and
selections for the Classic, Dirt Mile and Marathon.