HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
OCTOBER 23, 2009
by Dick Powell
Saturday’s $350,000 guaranteed Pick 4 pool at Belmont Park once again failed
to hit the minimum, and anyone who has followed my advice on seeking these
situations was handsomely rewarded. With rainy weather, all the races off the
turf and the stakes race shifted to Wednesday, the Belmont Pick 4 pool was only
$196,087.
NYRA had to seed the pool with $113,895 ($153,913 minus 26 percent takeout) to meet the guarantee which far
outweighs the $50,982 based on a 26 percent takeout rate. So unlike the situation that
arose a few weeks ago where the effective takeout was around 13 percent because the
guarantee was not hit, this time you actually entered the beautiful world of
negative takeout. All this resulted in a Pick 4 that saw its winners pay $3.90;
$10.20; $6.70 and $4.90 pay $391.
***
Usually the smart money is the late money, but in Keeneland’s 8TH race on
Saturday, the smart money showed up real early. CONNIE AND MICHAEL (Roman Ruler)
was a first-time starter trained by Ken McPeek that was 12-1 on the morning
line. I had marked her down the previous night based on McPeek’s success with
firsters, and her first-crop sire’s 19 juvenile winners.
After the 7TH race was official, the first odds were posted and I couldn’t
believe my eyes when Connie and Michael opened up at 6-5! She was facing a field
of juvenile fillies that included a $1 million yearling purchase, Cast Call,
which was by A.P. Indy out of Grade 1 winner Shadow Cast (Smart Strike), and Elarose (Storm Cat) that was out of multiple
Grade 1-winning mare Take Charge Lady (Dehere).
Connie and Michael drifted some in the betting but was still only 5-2 at post
time. It was a bargain.
The gate opened and Kent Desormeaux broke her on top from post 12 and opened
up a clear lead down the backstretch. She had a two-length lead after a first
quarter in :22.69 and a three-length lead after a first half in :45.49. Star
Recruit (Aldebaran) was the only one able to give chase but it was futile as
Connie and Michael turned for home and widened her lead with a final margin of 7
3/4 lengths while stopping the teletimer in 1:22.74. The other juvenile filly race
going seven furlongs earlier in the day went in 1:24.82.
Owned by the Brooklyn Boyz Stable, it seemed like all of them were in the
winner’s circle which might explain the early money that showed. Where she goes
next is anyone’s guess, but she is a serious juvenile filly that should be able
to stretch out to two turns.
***
On Sunday, Eoin Harty sent out AMERICAN LION (Tiznow) to an equally
impressive victory in a seven-furlong juvenile male race. Under Julien Leparoux,
he broke well, settled nicely, made a big move around the far turn to take the
lead and drew off to a 6 3/4-length victory in 1:22.22 in his second career start.
Being by Tiznow, who is becoming a strong stamina influence in
American pedigrees, and with his second dam being a multiple graded
stakes-winning mare that won the Oak Leaf S. (G1) at two, American Lion should also be able to stretch out
very nicely.
***
If you were expecting a Breeders’ Cup preview in this space this week, you are
way too early. I’ve never had any success by handicapping early and until the
fields shape up and post positions are drawn, I won’t have any strong opinions.
One trend I do feel strong about is I think that Aidan O’Brien will be the
dominant story at this year’s Breeders’ Cup. Last year, O’Brien was close to
having a memorable weekend. Heart Shaped (Storm Cat) missed by a nose in the
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. Westphalia (Ire) (Danehill Dancer) was a good
second to DONATIVUM (GB) (Cadeaux Genereux) in the Juvenile Turf. Soldier of Fortune
(Ire) (Galileo [Ire]) was only beaten about four lengths in fourth
place when Johnny Murtagh inexplicably chased his own rabbit that set a
blistering pace in the Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1).
And in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1), the O’Brien-trained Henrythenavigator
rallied strongly to be second. Last year’s Breeders’ Cup was a frustrating
weekend but one that Team Ballydoyle was sure to learn from. Yes,
Godolphin/Darley will be tough again like they were last year, but I’m looking
for their Irish rivals led by O’Brien to have a great weekend.
Either by plan or circumstance, the O’Brien stable seems to be pointed for
this year’s Breeders’ Cup more than in the past. Some of his stars, RIP VAN
WINKLE (Galileo [Ire]) for instance, are coming into the Breeders’ Cup much more lightly
raced than many of O’Brien’s previous stars. Instead of sending a group of
horses that have fired their best shots over in Europe, it looks like O’Brien
has saved plenty of ammunition.