Thoroughbred Beat

THOROUGHBRED BEAT

OCTOBER 15, 2009

by James Scully

Goodwood aftermath: GITANO HERNANDO's (GB) (Hernando [Fr]) shocking

upset in Saturday's Goodwood S. (G1) signaled to many observers that U.S.-based runners will be overmatched in the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1). Winner

of a Wolverhampton, England, conditions race in his previous start, the three-year-old

colt's European form doesn't compare to Group 1 winners RIP VAN WINKLE (Galileo

[Ire]) and MASTERCRAFTSMAN (Danehill Dancer), who are poised to make a serious

Classic assault for Coolmore. If the Group 3-placed Gitano Hernando can upset an

important prep race at Santa Anita like the Goodwood, how will the U.S.

contingent have any chance against the big guns from Europe?

The Euros will be tough, but I question whether the Goodwood will have any

impact upon the Classic since the best American-based contenders weren't in the

field. Any stateside discussion of the Classic should start with SUMMER BIRD

(Birdstone), a stone-cold 1 1/4-mile horse who is at least five lengths better

than any dirt horse in America with the exception of Rachel Alexandra (Medaglia

d'Oro) and QUALITY ROAD (Elusive Quality). It's no fluke that Summer Bird is

earning BRIS Speed ratings in the 110+ range, and Quality Road, who finished

second by a length to Summer Bird in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), is a supreme

talent who hasn't had his head on straight before his last two starts, refusing

to load in both the Gold Cup and Travers S. (G1). Quality

Road may put it all together in his upcoming starts.

Summer Bird and Quality Road have no experience on Pro-Ride, just like their

three-year-old counterparts Rip Van Winkle and Mastercraftsman.

In terms of proven commodities on the Pro-Ride, the Goodwood was lacking.

Santa Anita H. (G1) winner EINSTEIN (Brz) (Spend a Buck) and top turf horse GIO

PONTI (Tale of the Cat), winner of the Sir Beaufort S. (G3) on Santa Anita's

main oval last winter, weren't in the field and are much more serious Classic

prospects than COLONEL JOHN (Tiznow), RICHARD'S KID (Lemon Drop Kid) or any of

the Goodwood also-rans. ZENYATTA (Street Cry [Ire]), who seemingly runs downhill when she gets her momentum going at Santa Anita, also bypassed the

event in favor of the Lady's Secret S. (G1).

The Goodwood was one of the weaker Classic preps this year and shouldn't be

given much weight.

Classic girl power: Zenyatta equaled the legendary Personal Ensign's

13-for-13 mark with her convincing win in the Lady's Secret, and it was exciting

to see the mighty mare get her groove back following a less-than-stellar head

score in the Clement L. Hirsch S. (G1) at Del Mar. Every track in California has

a different synthetic surface, and the five-year-old does her best running on

Pro-Ride.

She was spectacular last season, garnering the Lady's Secret by 3 1/2 lengths

prior to her dominating victory in the Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic (G1), and

Saturday's race was her third start over the Pro-Ride. Zenyatta was

in touch with the rest of the field from the start and in full stride on the far

turn, swooping by her rivals with complete authority as she entered the stretch.

Her connections must now decide between the Classic and Ladies' Classic, and

I'll be surprised if they select the latter.

The competition won't be there for Zenyatta in the Ladies' Classic. COCOA BEACH (Chi) (Doneraile Court) and MUSIC NOTE (A.P.

Indy), the second- and third-place finishers in the 2008 Ladies Classic, would

be her top rivals once again, and while they are nice horses, they're not in the same class

with Zenyatta. Choosing to

beat the same old usual suspects will be the most ho-hum decision

that her connections could make. They'll be going through the same

motions, with everybody wondering how she would've fared against males a day

later.

Given her affinity for Pro-Ride, Zenyatta's got a legitimate shot in the

Classic. The surface plays to her strength, and top contenders like Summer Bird,

Quality Road, Rip Van Winkle and Mastercraftsman could all show up with less

than their best on foreign ground.

The tremendous mare deserves the opportunity.

Heat: Barry Abrams has announced plans to run LETHAL HEAT (Unusual

Heat) on both days

of the Breeders' Cup, and I hope he gets the chance to do it. I loved the way

Lethal Heat kept trying hard after Zenyatta blew past her in the Lady's Secret,

out-finishing multiple Grade 1 winner Cocoa

Beach for the place, and the California-bred filly is eligible to challenge for

at least a minor award in the Ladies' Classic.

The plan calls for her to return the following day in the Breeders' Cup Turf

Sprint, and grass is arguably Lethal Heat's best surface. She was a multiple

winner down the hill at Santa Anita last season, and her recent turf form,

second by a neck in the Palomar H. (G2) two back and third against males in the

Del Mar Mile (G2) three back, is very respectable.

The four-year-old is at the top of her game right now and has the class

to be competitive in both spots.

Ancient Title: GAYEGO (Gilded Time) established himself as the one to

beat in the Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1) with an authoritative 1 1/4-length victory

in Sunday's Ancient Title S. (G1), and the late runner benefits from FATAL BULLET's (Red Bullet)

victory in the Phoenix S. (G3) two days earlier.

Fatal Bullet, who finished an excellent second in the 2008 Sprint, is all speed,

meaning potential trouble for ZENSATIONAL (Unbridled's Song), who established

himself as the early Sprint favorite by virtue of easy wins in the Pat O'Brien

S.

(G1), Bing Crosby S. (G1) and Triple Bend H. (G1). Those two figure to set the table

for Gayego.

Winner of the 2008 Arkansas Derby (G2), Gayego was redirected to

shorter distances following a 17th in the Kentucky Derby (G1) and an 11th

in the Preakness S. (G1). He raced only twice more last season, concluding his

campaign with a sharp win at 6 1/2 furlongs over allowance/optional claiming

rivals at Hollywood, and opened 2009 with a victory in a Group 3 event in Dubai

at about six furlongs. The Saeed bin Suroor trainee was freshened following a

runner-up in the Godolphin Mile (UAE-G2), and he's returned to the races with

two superb efforts at six furlongs, recording triple-digit BRIS Speed ratings

for the Ancient Title and a six-furlong allowance/optional claiming event at

Saratoga. He stopped the teletimer in 1:08 1/5 on Sunday.

Ancient Title runner-up CROWN OF THORNS (Repent) will offer much better value in the Breeders' Cup. Sidelined for more than 19 months following his convincing

win in the 2008 Robert B. Lewis S. (G2), the four-year-old colt returned to the

races with a good effort against a solid allowance/optional claiming field at

Del Mar, checking in a close third following a slow start and wide trip. The

Richard Mandella runner showed more in the Ancient

Title, utilizing a powerful turn of foot to seize the lead in midstretch, and we

probably haven't seen his best yet. His connections will choose between the

Sprint and Dirt Mile (G1), and I give him a big chance to run well in either

spot.

Juveniles: The final round of preps for the Juvenile (G1) and

Juvenile Fillies (G1) are in the books, and the unbeaten LOOKIN AT

LUCKY (Smart Strike) comes closest to fitting the role of a standout in either

race. However, the Bob Baffert colt hasn't been facing much in California. In

the Norfolk S. (G1) last time, he held on as a group of

questionable rivals made a serious late run at him. Among those he narrowly

defeated were third-placer GALLANT GENT (Yankee Gentleman), winner of the C.B.

Afflerbaugh S. at Fairplex, and fourth-placer MAKE MUSIC FOR ME (Bernstein), a

maiden who was no factor next out in the Breeders' Futurity (G1). Lookin at

Lucky earned only

a 94 BRIS Speed rating.

I thought BLIND LUCK (Pollard's Vision), who was rank when finishing second

in her stakes bow, the Darley Debutante (G1), was more impressive winning the

Oak Leaf S. (G1) than Lookin at Lucky in the Norfolk. The former claimer ran

nearly the same time (1:43.19 compared to 1:43.11) as her male counterpart two

races later, and succeeded in a much more emphatic fashion. She'll take some

beating on November 6.

The Breeders' Futurity and Alcibiades S. (G1) at Keeneland could both have

a serious impact upon the Breeders' Cup, but I won't be touting surprise winners NOBLE'S PROMISE (Cuvee) and NEGLIGEE (Northern Afleet).

Instead, I came away liking both runners-up. AIKENITE (Yes It's True)

followed his debut score at Saratoga with a second in the Hopeful S.

(G1), and the Todd Pletcher-trained colt proved he could handle synthetic ground

in the Breeders' Futurity, passing nearly half the field with a stout late rally

that fell a half-length short. He could run by all of them in the stretch at

Santa Anita with further improvement. SHE BE WILD (Offlee Wild) missed by a

half-length while making her two-turn debut in the Alcibiades, rallying to the

lead in the stretch before being caught late, and the stalker should benefit

from the experience. She's a threat to carry her strong turn of foot further

next time.

The Champagne S. (G1) and Frizette S. (G1) were both held on dirt at Belmont.

HOMEBOYKRIS (Roman Ruler) recorded a minor upset in the former, but he may not

make the trip to Santa Anita and will be a huge outsider if he does. He's not

the best two-year-old in Richard Dutrow's barn. Frizette winner DEVIL MAY CARE (Malibu Moon)

looked much more

legitimate. A half-sister to Regal Ransom (Distorted Humor), she easily captured

her career bow at Saratoga and took a big step forward Saturday, withstanding

the formidable late bid of AWESOME MARIA (Maria's Mon), who ran back to her

excellent win in the Matron S. (G2) at Belmont. It was no surprise to see Devil

May Care (1:35.09) post a faster time than Homeboykris (1:35.12), and she could

run well next time if she handles the Pro-Ride in the Breeders' Cup.