CHURCHILL DOWNS NOTEBOOK
NOVEMBER 28, 2009
by Frank Cotolo
With only a week of the November Churchill meet before us — the final program
is Saturday — things have settled in the betting tone as the total success rate of
public choices met the historic standard of 33 percent. The second week’s huge
rate of success at 46 percent was humbled by a 28-percent rate for week three.
Keeneland shippers continued fare extremely well during the brief meet
(the bulk of those horses from Polytrack had also performed to betting par
before returning to dirt). Last week, 16 Keeneland shippers won. Thirteen
returning horses from earlier in the Churchill meet posted victories, and five
horses making their last appearance at Turfway Park proved successful. There
were a limited number of winners exiting starts at Saratoga, Belmont,
Hoosier, Delaware, Philadelphia and Mountaineer.
SURFACE REPORT
The balancing of the public’s winning rate could be due to a definite
off-the-pace bias this week, one that was even more defined than last week’s
figure. There were only seven wire-to-wire wins all week on the
main track.
A startling 51 percent of the races were won from off the pace, that is, the
winning horse must have had a call fourth or further back before the half. If
your horse was close to the pace and won, that is, was within the first three on
top all of the way, as long as being second or third was not separated by an
unusual number of lengths, you won 26 percent of the races. Wire-to-wire winners
(including brief duels that would put the horse second by a nose or neck at any
specific call) totaled 16 percent.
On the turf, things were not much different for all styles, though the public
was only presented with nine races (three were sprints). Off-the-pace runners
scored four times, and there was only one wire-to-wire winner (and it was in a route).
TRAINERS
Steve Asmussen had another great week. His six winners included one finishing
second, who was placed first through disqualification.
Three first-time starters got into the winner’s circle last week. One was
from Michael Maker, who had four winners on the week. Another was from the Greg
Foley, and the third hailed from top local conditioner Dale Romans. Doubles went to Hal Wiggins, Bernie Flint, Forrest Kaelin, Foley, Wes Ward,
Romans and Ian Wilkes.
Going into the final week of racing, here is is the
top 10 win-percentage table for trainers with seven or more starters:
| Trainer | Win% | |
| Cecil Borel | 43 | |
| Steve Asmussen | 33 | |
| Wes Ward | 31 | |
| Tom Proctor | 30 | |
| Bernie Flint | 29 | |
| Dale Romans | 27 | |
| Forrest Kaelin | 25 | |
| Hal Wiggins | 23 | |
| Ian Wilkes | 22 | |
| Greg Foley | 19 | |
| William Fires | 19 |
STAKES
Friday’s Clark H. (G2) highlights the final weekend of the Churchill Downs fall
meet. The $100,000 River City Handicap (G3) will also be offered on the
undercard.
On Saturday, the “Stars of Tomorrow II” program closes the meet with the Golden Rod
S. (G2) for frosh fillies and the Kentucky Jockey Club S. (G2) for frosh colts, and a pair of $60,000 turf routes for youngsters.
In the “Golden,” let’s go for VIVID COLORS (Roman Ruler), who made our November 1
Horses-to-Watch list and can topple the favorite at a price.
In the “Jockey,” we like WILLIAM’S KITTEN (Kitten’s Joy), who goes back to
real dirt for Churchill training-wizard Romans. This is the surface and
distance from which this horse last won — the Sunday Silence S. at
Louisiana Downs as the favorite. You can expect a better price here.
HORSES TO WATCH
With only a few programs left, we remind you how to use this list. You should
watch these horses in their next two starts, regardless of where they race. Keep
specific comments in mind if they refer to class or surface. New winners off the
list include HONOR IN PEACE (Peace Rules) ($5.60) and SILVER CRAFT (Value Plus)
($8). SMARTEN DESTINY (Smart Strike) won again, this time paying $4.80, and GESTE
(Coronado’s Quest) did the trick at $4.
Wednesday (11/18)
1ST — SAGEDUST (Hennessey) was powerful at 18-1, with a 10-post start to get
the lead three wide, a duel and an impressive third-place finish.
3RD — GOOD LORD (Greatness) broke maiden in this race at 6-1, getting to the
lead, losing it and regaining it impressively.
Thursday (11/19)
2ND — SILVER CHEST (Silver Deputy), a Monmouth shipper, finished second at 6-1
after a three-wide charge and altering his path. He was claimed by Maker.
8TH — AREGULATIONHOTTIE (Officer) is a Kenneally student poised to break
maiden and could have here but for being too wide early, coming in second to a
26-1 shot.
Friday (11/20)
3RD — HANDLETHETRUTH (Yes It’s True), at 7-1, was sharp out of 10 post,
showing speed, though drifting a bit.
7TH — POPS LADY V (Tactical Cat) delivered an unexpected early challenge at
46-1, strong enough to warrant another look.
Saturday (11/21)
2ND — AMERICANREVOLUTION (Maria’s Mon) is from Saratoga and would have romped
here if not burned out from an early duel.
5TH — FUTURISTIC (Millennium Wind) was claimed here for Forrest Kaelin and
should be hot anywhere near a mile in his first start for him.
Sunday (11/22)
3RD — FIRST MOVEMENT (Concerto) had a bad start but still got and kept the
lead before surrendering late, finishing second.
6TH — RELVADO (Thunder Gulch) was not so bold on the grass but should be a
danger going back to dirt, especially the artificial kind.
10TH – EXXEL (Gulch) was four wide trying to get into the mix and was just
about there until slowly negotiating the turn.