CHURCHILL DOWNS NOTEBOOK
NOVEMBER 20, 2009
by Frank Cotolo
The second full week of the November Churchill meet wrote another 50 races
into the season’s history book, with a sharp betting public producing a
46-percent win tally. That astute behavior brought the meet’s halfway point
average to 37 percent.
As strongly as some bettors feel about horses changing surfaces, specifically
from all-weather to genuine dirt and vice versa, the horses coming to this brief
meet from Keeneland, Turfway and Arlington continue to dominate at Churchill.
Twenty of the week’s winners, most of them in dirt events, were horses from
Keeneland. Turfway provided four winners while Arlington and Presque Isle Downs
contributed two each.
TRACK STATS
There has been a significant bias for horses coming off the pace this past
week. We use three definitions to address the style statistics of winners.
First, “off the pace” means the horse must have a call fourth or farther back
before the half. Second, “close off the pace” means a horse must be within the
first three on top all of the way, as long as being second or third is not
separated by an unusual number of lengths. Finally, “wire-to-wire” is defined as
having the lead at every call (unless in a duel the horse loses the lead at the
exact moment of the call).
That being established, from November 11 through November 15, a startling 48
percent of the winners on the dirt were winners from off the pace. On November
14, there was no way for speed to win, with all nine dirt races won from off the
pace, only one with the “close” definition. The day before there were four
wire-to-wire wins.
Justifying the definitions, being close to the pace or on top all the way
tallied 28 percent and 25 percent tallies, respectively. Still, wire-to-wire
wins were rare and horses performing them should be noted as strong bet backs.
On the turf, winning from off the pace provided 45 percent of the winners.
TRAINERS
Steve Asmussen had a great week, topping all trainers with his five
victories. Tom Proctor placed with three wins and a pair each were recorded by
Ken McPeek, Greg Foley, Dale Romans, Ian Wilkes and Wallace Dollase. A
first-time starter got into the winners’ circle this week from conditioner
Michelle Ninei.
STAKES
Sean McCarthy decided to head east and run LEMON CHIFFON (Lemon Drop Kid) at
Churchill Downs in Saturday’s Cardinal H. (G3) on the Matt Winn Turf Course. He
is having his horse skip the November 28 Matriarch S. (G1) at Hollywood Park to
go in this $100,000 event. It will be her second start at Churchill this year,
as she ran third in the Churchill Distaff Turf Mile (G2) this spring.
She broke her maiden in 2007 at Santa Anita with rider Jon Court aboard.
He’ll be in Louisville, Kentucky, for the mare’s trip this time around at
Churchill.
Local heroine ACOMA (Empire Maker), who has won on this course twice in
stakes races and is running a four-race win streak on grass and dirt, is raring
to go in this event, also. She is the top weight for trainer David Carroll, with
Jesus Castanon up.
HORSES TO WATCH
One winner from our Horses to Watch list came back from this meet. SILVER
CRAFT (Value Plus) won and paid $8. From our Keeneland lists, shippers who have
won at Churchill so far are SMARTEN DESTINY (Smart Strike), $4.80; and COULEE
(Vicar), $23.80. MOUNTAIN JUSTICE (Afleet Alex) returned off the Keeneland list
and paid $18.60 for breaking his maiden at Fair Grounds on November 15.
Wednesday (11/11)
8TH — PICK AND PRAY (Songandaprayer) produced an impressive wire-to-wire win
on a day when eight horses won off the pace on the dirt. What is even better is
that he won drawing away by 9 1/2 lengths, making for one terrific bet back.
Thursday (11/12)
2ND — HAPPY WAC (Military) dueled to the three-eighths mark and, though he
drifted a bit after the fight, seemed to take well to the dirt from Presque
Isle’s Tapeta surface.
5TH — HONOR IN PEACE (Peace Rules) is better than this race, where he was
pushed to the outside every step of the way and tired from the process.
7TH — PAPAW BROUGHTON (Saint Liam) was out for the first time and got to the
lead early, which is a significant display of speed.
Friday (11/13)
5TH — EXCURSION (Sunday Break [Jpn]), at 9-1, was close to the pace early
and battled with a 67-1 shot before both tired.
7TH — JOLLY OL’ NICK (Nicholas) gained well to the half, then dueled and
held well to finish third.
Saturday (11/14)
1ST — GAMEBOOK (Midway Road) was all out at 21-1 in this route early,
leading by five lengths until caught in the stretch.
4TH — I BELIEVE IN ME (Giant’s Causeway) looked good on the turf, getting to
the lead and dueling to the half at 13-1. This is a recent Churchill returnee
who seems to like the course.
Sunday (11/15)
1ST — FAVORITE MOON (Malibu Moon) displayed a mighty first win, striking
from the 11 post, leading wide and then maintaining through a duel at the half
and winning. A definite bet back.
5TH — INTEREST ME (Belong to Me) is a Philly invader who jumped well from
the 9 post and maintained speed to finish a sharp second, best of the rest to a
winner who was more than eight lengths ahead of him.