Classic Diary

CLASSIC DIARY

NOVEMBER 4, 2009

by James Scully

In this final diary, I’ll give my analysis and selections for the Classic
(G1) and Dirt Mile (G1) on Saturday, and the Marathon on Friday. All three races
will feature a strong international presence, especially the Marathon where the
Americans appear to have very little chance, and the lowest-priced morning
line favorite in the 14-race Breeders’ Cup program is Irish raider MASTERCRAFTSMAN (Ire) (Danehill
Dancer), who is listed at 6-5 in the Dirt Mile.

CLASSIC

The major storylines in this year’s Classic involve the first two choices on
the morning line. RIP VAN WINKLE (Ire) (Galileo [Ire]) is the fearsome invader
from Europe, where he ranked second only to Sea the Stars, and the Irish star is
so good that he knocked a serious Classic contender, stablemate and multiple
Group 1 hero Mastercraftsman, to the Dirt Mile. An outstanding winner of the
Queen Elizabeth II S. (Eng-G1) in his last outing, Rip Van Winkle will attempt
to give Coolmore and Aidan O’Brien their first Classic victory. The
three-year-old colt looks like the likely favorite in the wagering, but ZENYATTA
(Street Cry [Ire]) is the slight morning-line choice at 5-2, and the outstanding
mare will be the sentimental favorite for many Thoroughbred racing fans.

Thirteen-for-13 in her distinguished career, the unbeaten champion will pursue
unprecedented glory in her first start against males (no filly or mare has won
in 25 runnings of the Classic). Zenyatta likes to put on a show with her antics
in the paddock and post parade, but the gigantic five-year-old is all business
on the track. She’s a late-running dynamo for John Shirreffs.

I’ll give a brief mention to six horses that aren’t in my top
three — a pair of Triple Crown race winners, a couple of turf stars and two
up-and-coming runners in royal blue. Belmont S. (G1) hero SUMMER BIRD
(Birdstone) will enter the Classic on the upswing, winning the Jockey Club Gold
Cup (G1) and Travers S. (G1) in his last two outings, and his 112 BRIS Speed rating
last time merits serious respect. However, the late-starting sophomore recorded
nine workouts over the Pro-Ride last fall/winter before being sent from trainer
John Sadler’s barn to Tim Ice, who debuted the chestnut in March at Oaklawn
Park. Sadler is as sharp as they come out West and if he felt that the talented
colt was better suited to the dirt, we’re inclined to doubt Summer Bird on the
Pro-Ride. Kentucky Derby (G1) upsetter MINE THAT BIRD (Birdstone) also doesn’t
appear to be at his best over Santa Anita’s synthetic oval. He was no factor in
the Goodwood S. (G1) earlier in the  Oak Tree meet and finished last in the
2008 Juvenile (G1).

Turf notables EINSTEIN (Brz) (Spend a Buck) and GIO PONTI (Tale of the Cat)
are both eligible to outperform our expectations. Einstein captured the Santa
Anita H. (G1) in March and will enter the Classic fresh for Helen Pitts-Blasi,
finishing a good second in the Pacific Classic (G1) last time. He’s a
hard-hitting seven-year-old who loves the 1 1/4-mile distance. Gio Ponti is
another accomplished 10-furlong runner, easily scoring in the Arlington Million
(G1) and Manhattan H. (G1) at the distance this summer, and displayed a tremendous
finishing kick over the Pro-Ride when capturing the Sir Beaufort S. (G3) last
December. The Christophe Clement colt will be running late under Ramon Dominguez.

REGAL RANSOM (Distorted Humor) and GIROLAMO (A.P. Indy) are extremely
promising for Godolphin and could be major contenders when the Classic returns
to dirt in 2010, but we can’t get excited about their chances this year. The
former is more accomplished, winning the Super Derby (G2) and U.A.E. Derby
(UAE-G2) this season, but he ran poorly over the Pro-Ride last fall and is a
serious question mark at the Classic distance. The sky is the limit for
Girolamo, who has registered three smashing wins since returning to the races
this year in August, but the untested phenom has never tried two turns or a
synthetic track.

Quality Road has stamina in his female line (Harold Roth/Horsephotos.com) 1st — QUALITY ROAD (Elusive Quality) is the fastest American-based runner in the field based on BRIS Speed ratings after Summer Bird. The Florida Derby (G1) winner has garnered BRIS Speed ratings of 111, 110 and 109 this season, and he exits a good second, beaten a length, in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. Out of a Strawberry Road (Aus) mare, the bay colt hails from a classy family, including some turf runners. Turf horses tend to make a smooth transition to the synthetic tracks, and Quality Road’s sire, Elusive Quality, is responsible for 2008 Classic winner, Raven’s Pass. Quality Road is winless in two starts at 10 furlongs, recording a third in the Travers in his first attempt, but we feel the Pro-Ride will benefit him similar to Raven’s Pass, who had never won past a mile prior to last year’s Breeders’ Cup. Quality Road established himself as the early Kentucky Derby favorite with a convincing victory in the Florida Derby in track-record time, but foot problems derailed his Triple Crown plans. He’s now back at full strength for Todd Pletcher, with solid three preps under him since early August, and his natural speed looks like an advantage on Saturday. Regal Ransom is the only other front runner in the field and should provide a perfect target for John Velazquez, who figures to sit close before striking aboard Quality Road. We’ll get plenty of value and the perfect trip with him.

2nd — TWICE OVER (GB) (Observatory) doesn’t own the lofty reputation
of fellow European Rip Van Winkle, but the English invader is a 10-furlong
specialist who will enter the Classic in excellent condition for Henry Cecil.

Runner-up in the 2008 Champion S. (Eng-G1) to Epsom Derby (Eng-G1)
hero New Approach, Twice Over turned in a couple of solid efforts earlier this
year, falling less than a length short in the Prince of Wales’s S. (Eng-G1) and Lockinge S. (Eng-G1), before receiving a freshening in early July. He returned
from the short rest in sharp form, winning two races prior to a half-length
success in the 2009 edition of the Champion, knocking off a notable group of
rivals in the about 1 1/4-mile test. It was a career-best performance for the
improving four-year-old.

We like getting value with Europeans in the Classic, and Twice Over will
probably be higher than 10-1. Arcangues won the 1993 edition at 133-1, and 1990
runner-up Ibn Bey (GB) was 38-1. Raven’s Pass and Henrythenavigator, the 1-2
finishers last year, were 13-1 and 19-1, respectively. Cecil knows how to
prepare his horses for the international trip, finishing in the money with
three of six Breeders’ Cup starters, including Dushyantor at 58-1 in the 1998
Turf (G1).

The Juddmonte homebred reportedly made a terrific appearance when visiting
Santa Anita’s track for the first time on Monday morning, and Twice Over rates
as a very live longshot.

3rd — Tabbing RIP VAN WINKLE and ZENYATTA as co-third
selections is arguably a cop-out, but I didn’t want to leave them out of our
top three. Rip Van Winkle deserves ultimate respect, but he’s never won past a
mile and has battled some physical issues this season for O’Brien. At short
odds, there’s no guarantee he’ll handle his first start on a synthetic track.
Zenyatta is at her best on the Pro-Ride, but she hasn’t registered a
triple-digit BRIS Speed rating this year and figures to be overbet in this
daunting spot.

Longshot — AWESOME GEM (Awesome Again) passed a lot of rivals to
finish a non-threatening third in the 2007 Classic, and the six-year-old gelding
will enter this year’s event in good condition for Craig Dollase, registering a
1 1/4-length decision in the Hawthorne Gold Cup (G2) last out. He’s a two-time
Grade 1 runner-up on synthetic tracks, and 10 furlongs is his best distance.
Awesome Gem looms as a potential gimmicks crasher at long odds.

DIRT MILE

After appearing on course for the Classic, MASTERCRAFTSMAN was redirected to
the Dirt Mile by O’Brien, and the Irish-based colt looks like a standout over
his nine rivals.

1st — MASTERCRAFTSMAN reeled off consecutive wins this year in the
Irish Two Thousand Guineas (Ire-G1) and St. James’s Palace S. (Eng-G1) before
dropping a pair of decisions against Sea the Stars in the Juddmonte
International (Eng-G1) and Irish Champion S. (Ire-G1). The gray colt still
managed to place in both spots, finishing second by a length in the former, and
he rebounded from those respectable setbacks with a confidence-building victory
in a Group 3 event last time, showing an affinity for synthetic with a
five-length decision over the all-weather track at Dundalk. Saturday’s
eight-furlong distance is the perfect fit for the champion juvenile, who should
receive a ground-saving trip from his rail post, and Mastercraftsman figures to
be along in time.

2nd — MIDSHIPMAN (Unbridled’s Song) was the only front-running winner
over the Pro-Ride in last year’s Breeders’ Cup, cruising to a 1 1/4-length tally
in the Juvenile (G1), and appeared to have all the physical tools to win the
Kentucky Derby in 2009. However, the Godolphin colt missed most of his
three-year-old campaign due to injury, making his belated return in a 6
1/2-furlong allowance/optional claimer at Belmont Park on September 18. Even
though chestnut drew clear to a 3 1/4-length decision that afternoon, there are
still legitimate concerns about fitness in his second start back. He’ll be
re-united with Garrett Gomez, the best big-money jockey in U.S. racing, and
Midshipman will probably try to take his rivals all the way on the front end.

3rd — BULLSBAY (Tiznow) is a two-time winner on the all-weather
tracks, but the Whitney H. (G1) victor appears more comfortable on dirt. However,
the Graham Motion runner received a favorable draw in post 3 with regular rider
Jeremy Rose, and he’s capable of grabbing a minor award here based on class
alone.

Longshot: NEKO BAY (Giant’s Causeway) has class concerns in this spot,
but the improving late runner has posted BRIS Late Pace ratings of 118 and 113
in his last two outings and is a potential bomber for the exotics under Mike
Smith.

MARATHON

The Marathon was extended to 1 3/4 miles this year, and four of the 10
runners are international shippers. I expect them to sweep the top two
spots and won’t be surprised to see a Euro trifecta.

Father Time could move up on synthetic (Harold Roth/Horsephotos.com) 1st — FATHER TIME (GB) (Dansili [GB]) has finished behind Mastery (GB) (Sulamani [Ire]) in his last two starts, but we’ll look for him to turn the tables here. Trained by Cecil, the three-year-old colt showed an affinity for the synthetic when winning his career bow last season, and the Group 2 winner is eligible to keep improving off a solid fourth in the about 1 3/4-mile St Leger (Eng-G1) last time. I think he’ll appreciate the tighter track at Santa Anita. 2nd — MASTERY posted a mild upset in the St Leger and will merit serious respect as the likely favorite in the Marathon. The Godolphin runner has won or placed in his last five starts while competing against top company, finishing third behind eventual Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (Fr-G1) third-placer Cavalryman (Halling) in the Grand Prix de Paris (Fr-G1) three starts back, but we weren’t thrilled with his lone effort on a synthetic track in the Kempton Kentucky Derby Challenge earlier this season. The three-year-old looks much-improved since that effort, but I’ll still give Father Time a slight edge this time around.

3rd — CLOUDY’S KNIGHT (Lord Avie) was added to the Marathon mix after
returning from 12-month layoff with a pair of recent Grade 3 wins, and we have a
ton of respect for trainer Jonathan Sheppard. The nine-year-old gelding probably
isn’t good enough to challenge for it all, but he’s a contender for a minor
award given his strong present form. It will be a great story if he somehow
posts the upset under
Rosemary Homeister Jr.

Longshot — MAN OF IRON (Giant’s Causeway) lacks the credentials of
the top Europeans in the field, but the half-brother to Belmont S. (G1) winners Rags to
Riches and Jazil exits an encouraging victory over the synthetic track at
Dundalk and is trained by O’Brien. Give him a chance to run well in his U.S. debut.