HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
NOVEMBER 6, 2009
by Dick Powell
The Breeders’ Cup will be run for the 25th time this weekend at Santa Anita
and it will be great to have the attention back on handicapping the horses and
not on the host site.
One area in which I disagree with many of my fellow handicappers is how the
large pools of the Breeders’ Cups represent a great opportunity for a
life-changing score. These races are super tough to wager on and I recommend
that you tread lightly. If anything, take the usual amount that you might bet
and spread it thinner because of the depth of the fields. If you have a strong
opinion, great, but don’t go gimmick crazy without at least making a win bet if
the odds justify it. With 14 races spread over two days, the last thing you want
is to forget your money management skills and come up short of funds when you
need them.
FRIDAY
Marathon: MASTERY (GB) (Sulamani [Ire]) is the type of horse that the
Breeders’ Cup hoped to attract when they carded this race last year. He won the
English St. Leger (Eng-G1) in his last start and does have some form on an
all-weather track. Play him in straight exactas over Father Time (GB) (Dansili
[GB]).
Juvenile Fillies Turf: LILLIE LANGTRY (Ire) (Danehill Dancer) had a
big win on ground similar to what she will see Friday when she won a Group 3 in
Ireland. Has progressed nicely for trainer Aidan O’Brien and should have no
trouble getting two turns. Underneath, I’ll use Tapitsfly (Tapit) and Smart
Seattle (Smart Strike).
Juvenile Fillies (G1): BLIND LUCK (Pollard’s Vision) won the Oak Leaf
(G1) here at this distance with a strong rally and should get a similar setup
from post 3. Beautician (Dehere) had a nightmare trip in the Alcibiades S. (G1)
at Keeneland in her synthetic track debut. Always a Princess (Leroidesanimaux
[Brz]) has enough speed to overcome the 11 post under Garrett Gomez.
Filly & Mare Turf (G1): MIDDAY (GB) (Oasis Dream [GB]) beat older
fillies the first time she tried them on soft turf then came back with a good
third on ground that was much firmer. Just missed by a head in the Epsom Oaks
(Eng-G1) in June against much better than these. Visit (GB) (Oasis Dream [GB])
just missed last out when running to close to the pace; draws the rail and gets
Gomez back.
Filly & Mare Sprint (G1): INFORMED DECISION (Monarchos) has a
brilliant closing kick, loves the distance and has never been beaten on a
synthetic track. She’ll run these down with a well-timed move from Julien
Leparoux. Sara Louise (Malibu Moon) has never raced on a synthetic track but she
has the pedigree and running style to be successful here. Ventura (Chester
House) will be overbet off a terrific win over males going a mile on the turf in
fast time. Defending champ loved it here last year.
Ladies Classic (G1): CARELESS JEWEL (Tapit) should have the early lead
all to herself and as long as she isn’t too crazy before the race she can take
them gate-to-wire. Cocoa Beach (Chi) (Doneraile Court) ran well here last year
and was stuck behind a slow pace last time out. Music Note (A.P. Indy) has won
two Grade 1 stakes in a row and shows up here fresher than she was last year.
SATURDAY
Juvenile Turf (G2): INTERACTIF (Broken Vow) has a deadly late kick and
will be flying late with Kent Desormeaux. Pounced (Rahy) is a lightly-raced Euro
from the John Gosden barn who was a good second in a Group 1 last out. Viscount
Nelson (Giant’s Causeway) has to make sure he doesn’t get shuffled back too far
from an inside post.
Turf Sprint: LORD SHANAKILL (Speightstown) won a Group 1 two starts
back going a mile and did great last year going this distance. This is an
impossible race to handicap but at least he’s shown he can run well against big
fields. California Flag (Avenue of Flags) will be the one to catch with Joe
Talamo. Cannonball (Catienus) should have won at Ascot this summer and has a
strong kick.
Sprint (G1): ZENSATIONAL (Unbridled’s Song) has been training even
faster than normal for Bob Baffert and he’ll have to break alertly from the
rail. Fleeting Spirit (Ire) (Invincible Spirit) does not behave at the gate, so
you’ll know how she’ll do before the race is run. If she loads without incident,
watch out. Gayego (Gilded Time) could get the same pace set-up that he got in
the Ancient Title (G1) and run these down.
Juvenile (G1): ALFRED NOBEL (Ire) (Danehill Dancer) is a Group 1
stakes winner from O’Brien who was beaten last out when racing on the wrong side
of the track. No shot when racing over heavy ground two starts back. Lookin at
Lucky (Smart Strike) has to overcome post 13 but he loves this track. Vale of
York (Ire) (Invincible Spirit) is a speedy Euro who should handle American
racing.
Mile (G1): ZACINTO (GB) (Dansili [GB]) still hasn’t won a group stakes
but he was a terrific second two starts back then rallied well to get second
behind Classic favorite Rip Van Winkle. Goldikova (Ire) (Anabaa) was overbet in
this race last year when she won at 9-5 and figures to be lower here.
Justenuffhumor (Distorted Humor) hated the soft turf last time out and will
relish the return to firm going.
Dirt Mile (G1): MASTERCRAFTSMAN (Ire) (Danehill Dancer) ships in from
Ireland for O’Brien off a sensational win on an all-weather track going longer.
Winner of two Group 1 stakes going a mile, he is fast enough to handle any pace
scenario. Ready’s Echo (More Than Ready) is a one-dimensional closer who will be
flying late to get a piece. Midshipman (Unbridled’s Song) won here last year and
had a good prep for this in his only start this season.
Turf (G1): DAR RE MI (GB) (Singspiel [Ire]) beat the two best turf
fillies in Europe two starts in a row then ran well in the Prix de l’Arc de
Triomphe (Fr-G1) last out. Spanish Moon (El Prado [Ire]) is a lightly-raced
turfer from Sir Michael Stoute who loves this distance. Presious Passion (Royal
Anthem) will have a gigantic lead and we’ll be wondering if he’s going to stop.
Classic (G1): RIP VAN WINKLE (Ire) (Galileo [Ire]) has been knocking
heads with Europe’s best all year and comes into this race with two huge wins
going a mile. ZENYATTA (Street Cry [Ire]) finally gets a chance to go long on
her favorite track. Training bullets for this. Mine That Bird (Birdstone) ran
well on synthetics last year and comes in here relatively fresh at a good price.
Key to any exotics. Summer Bird (Birdstone) could be compromised by running over
a sloppy track last out at Belmont that a few horses did not come out of well.