HOLLAND’S EUROPEAN BREEDERS’
CUP PREVIEW
NOVEMBER 1, 2009
Preview of European BC Contenders
by Tim Holland
Marathon
FATHER TIME (GB) (Dansili [GB]): Apparently failed to stay the mile and
three-quarter trip when fourth in the St. Leger (Eng-G1) last time out. Proved
he can handle a synthetic surface when he broke his maiden at Great Leighs and
should have a better chance of seeing the distance out over this course, but
still has a lot to find to threaten fellow invader Mastery (GB).
MAN OF IRON (Giant’s Causeway): Have to respect the connections
(Coolmore/Aidan O’Brien) and has won twice over the synthetic surface at
Dundalk. He has stamina in his pedigree being by Giant’s Causeway and a
half-brother to Belmont S. (G1) winners Jazil and Rags to Riches, but has not
raced further than a mile and a quarter and appears well below top class.
MUHANNAK (Ire): Last year’s winner perhaps put in his best subsequent
performance in his latest race when running on to be fifth, just a half-length
behind Red Rocks (Ire), in the Cumberland Lodge St. (Eng-G3) in September. He
should have no problem with the extra two furlongs that he will travel this year
but has proved temperamental lately, especially when refusing to race at Kempton
three starts back, and will face a tougher field this year.
MASTERY (GB) (Sulamani [Ire]): St Leger hero has plenty of stamina and
finished a creditable fourth on Kempton’s artificial surface in the Kentucky
Derby Challenge in March. He has had a long season and had a hard race in the
St. Leger, but still appears the leading overseas hope.
Juvenile Fillies Turf
JUNIA TEPZIA (Ire) (Rock of Gibraltar [Ire]): $5,000 yearling purchase showed
good speed in both her impressive wins which came in Italy. Has a strong
pedigree, being out of a half-sister to 2005 Two Thousand Guineas (Eng-G1) hero
Footstepsinthesand (GB). Saddled by leading German trainer Peter Schiergen, she
has a favorable running style, and while her form is hard to evaluate, she
should not be ignored.
LILLIE LANGTRY (Ire) (Danehill Dancer): Won the valuable Tattersalls Timeform
S. in good style but had looked below the best when previously third in the
Moyglare Stud S. (Ire-G1). However, that defeat had come on very soft ground
which will not be an issue here. Has top connections (Coolmore/Aidan O’Brien)
and appears to have a leading chance.
Filly And Mare Sprint (G1)
ONLY GREEN (Ire) (Green Desert): Filly that was used twice this year as the
pacemaker for Goldikova (Ire) won on the synthetic surface at Deauville earlier
this year. Won her last but has failed in all her group race attempts and,
despite having strong connections, appears out of her depth here.
Filly And Mare Turf (G1)
MIDDAY (GB) (Oasis Dream [GB]): Top class filly was narrowly defeated in the
Epsom Oaks (Eng-G1) but may be more suited to this two furlong shorter distance
at which she beat Rainbow View in the Nassau S. (Eng-G1) on ground which may
have been softer to her liking. Should get favorable conditions here and has a
top chance to give Henry Cecil his first Breeders’ Cup success.
Ladies’ Classic (G1)
PROVISO (GB) (Dansili [GB]): Finished a good third to Goldikova (Ire) in the
Prix Rothschild (Fr-G1) before winning the Prix Du Pin (Fr-G3) in her last
European appearance two starts back. Like the majority of the offspring of
Dansili (GB), Proviso proved herself equally effective on an artificial surface
when finishing first past the post in the Spinster S. (G1) at Keeneland. A touch
unlucky to be disqualified from the Spinster, the Bobby Frankel-trained filly
should improve off that effort and looks like a major force here.
RAINBOW VIEW (Dynaformer): Very highly rated as a juvenile, Rainbow View was
disappointing in the One Thousand Guineas (Eng-G1) and Epsom Oaks (Eng-G1) but
has shown a return to form this fall, primarily when winning the Matron S.
(Ire-G1). Her better showings have coincided with softer ground which may
explain her inability to defeat Lahaleeb (Ire) (Redback) in the E.P. Taylor
(Can-G1) on firm turf in her last start. With the prospect of firm ground, the
Ladies’ Classic this looks like a better option for Rainbow View than the Filly
and Mare Turf, and she must be considered for the win.
Juvenile Turf (G2)
AWESOME ACT (Awesome Again): Broke his maiden at Goodwood in his fourth
attempt before running in the Dewhurst S. (Eng-G1) where he finished a well
beaten ninth after being bumped at the start and failing to settle. Showed a
good turn of foot at Goodwood and a strong expected pace here should help, but
the Dewhurst was perhaps subpar and a victory here for Awesome Act looks
unlikely.
BUZZWORD (GB) (Pivotal): Was perhaps a little unlucky when third in the Grand
Criterium (Fr-G1) in which he still finished in front of Beethoven, but did not
confirm the form with that one when fifth, with little apparent excuse, in the
Dewhurst S. (Eng-G1). Comes from the powerful Godolphin Stable but may not be up
to this class.
KING LEDLEY (Stormin Fever): Has started eight times with just one win to his
credit, but he ran on well to be third in the 20-runner Goffs Million Sprint, a
head in front of Beethoven (Ire), who won the Dewhurst S. (Eng-G1) in his next
start. King Ledley will make his first start for Darrin Miller having been
previously trained by Kevin Prendergast and, while not without a chance, he
appears below top class.
OASIS DANCER (GB) (Oasis Dream [GB]): Created a huge upset when winning the
22-runner Tattersalls Timeform Million at Newmarket which was won by Donativum
(GB) (Cadeaux Genereux) prior to his victory in this event last year. While he
is improving, having made just three starts, and should be suited by the ground
and distance at Santa Anita, it seems unlikely he is good enough to pull off
another shock here.
POUNCED (Rahy): Finished a solid second in the Grand Criterium in just his
third start with Buzzword (GB) and future Dewhurst winner Beethoven (Ire) behind
him. Trained by John Gosden, who saddled Donativum (GB) to win this last year,
Pounced is improving and should like firmer ground. He rates a major chance.
VISCOUNT NELSON (Giant’s Causeway): Was sent on the same course by O’Brien,
who sent out 2008 Juvenile Turf runner-up Wesphalia (Ire), when winning the
Hurricane Run S. before contesting the Champagne S. (Eng-G2) at Doncaster.
Despite not emulating Westphalia when he was defeated in the Champagne, Viscount
Nelson ran a creditable race as the runner-up, beaten less than a length. He’s
never run a bad one in his four starts and the half-brother to Horatio Nelson
(Ire) will have a leading chance in the Breeders’ Cup.
Turf Sprint
LORD SHANAKILL (Speightstown): Had proved his class when second in the
Dewhurst as a juvenile and when third in the St. James Palace S. (Eng-G1) this
summer, before winning the Prix Jean Prat (Fr-G1) over a mile at Chantilly. Will
be making his first start since running poorly in the Sussex S. (Eng-G1) after
which he was reportedly lame behind, but has been training well at Santa Anita
for his new trainer, Richard Mandella. Lord Shanakill was fast enough to win the
six-furlong Mill Reef S. (Eng-G2) last year and will have a good chance here if
not left with too much to do.
STRIKE THE DEAL (Van Nistelrooy): Trained by Jeremy Noseda, who is no
stranger to American racing, Strike the Deal has been in fine form lately
winning his last two starts, including the Dubai Duty Free World Trophy (Eng-G3)
at Newbury. Usually held up early and with a powerful late kick, the
four-year-old should relish the firm ground and this distance and must be given
a serious shot of upsetting this field.
Dirt Mile (G1)
MASTERCRAFTSMAN (Ire) (Danehill Dancer): Having shown he could handle a
synthetic surface by winning the Diamond S. (Ire-G3), O’Brien has listed this as
first preference for Mastercraftsman rather than the Classic (G1). Although no
match for Sea the Stars over 10 furlongs, the gray colt proved a top-class miler
with wins in the Irish Two Thousand Guineas (Ire-G1) and the St. James Palace S.
(Eng-G1). His ability to handle soft turf confirms that he should be as
effective on synthetic courses and he will be hard to beat here.
Juvenile (G1)
ALFRED NOBEL (Ire) (Danehill Dancer): It is likely that his fifth place
finish in the Tattersalls Timeform Million last time was better than it looks on
paper, and the Coolmore-owned colt, who had previously won the six furlong
Phoenix S. (Ire-G1) in July, ran poorly when last home in the National S.
(Ire-G1) with the soft ground offered as the only excuse. Must be respected for
his connections, but may not have the class for this.
BEETHOVEN (Ire) (Oratorio [Ire]): Has had a busy season winning just twice in
10 starts, including when he surprised the Dewhurst field by narrowly triumphing
as O’Brien’s third most fancied runner. The strength of the Dewhurst has to be
questioned and Beethoven’s previous form does not suggest that he is good enough
for this.
RADIOHEAD (GB) (Johannesburg): Recent IEAH Stable purchase won the Norfolk S.
(Eng-G2) at Royal Ascot and finished second in the Middle Park S.(Eng-G1) in his
most recent start. However, the best performance of the Brian Meehan-trained
colt may have been when he stayed on strongly to be third in the 16-runner
Nunthorpe S. (Eng-G1) where he was facing older horses. Although he has not
raced further than six furlongs, his pedigree and running style do not suggest
that the mile and a sixteenth on the Pro-Ride should be a problem. His handler
has been successful sending horses to race in America before and Radiohead looks
to be the best of the European runners in this race.
VALE OF YORK (Ire) (Invincible Spirit): Godolphin’s representative finished
third in the Royal Lodge S. (Eng-G2) at Ascot and second in the Gran Criterium
(Ity-G1) but, while obviously a useful sort, the bare form of those races does
not put him in this class.
Mile (G1)
DELEGATOR (GB) (Dansili [GB]): Well thought of colt chased Sea the Stars home
in the Two Thousand Guineas and narrowly failed to defeat Mastercraftsman (Ire)
in the St. James Palace. Delegator did pick up wins in the Craven S. (Eng-G3)
and the Celebration Mile (Eng-G2), but his slightly disappointing third-place
finish with little excuse in the Queen Elizabeth S. (Eng-G1) may be a good
measure of his true ability. His connections must be respected, but Delegator
may be a touch below the best in here.
GLADIATORUS (Silic [Fr]): After winning the Dubai Duty Free (UAE-G1) in
February, Gladiatorus produced three poor efforts before winning the Premio
Vittorio Di Capua (Ity-G1) in October. His victories have all come when allowed
to set the pace but, with others looking for the lead, it is unlikely that those
tactics will succeed here.
GOLDIKOVA (Ire) (Anabaa): Last year’s winner comes in off a defeat when upset
as the heavy favorite in the Prix De La Foret (Fr-G1). A wide draw and being too
close to the very fast early pace have been cited as plausible excuses, as well
as her possibly feeling the effects of three consecutive Group 1 victories. Her
six-length win in the Prix Jacques le Marios (Fr-G1) two starts back came close
to being as impressive as her win in last year’s Mile, and she’ll be hard to
beat over a Santa Anita turf that she likes.
ZACINTO (GB) (Dansili [GB]): Has been lightly raced this year and has had
this race on his agenda for quite some time. Very promising as a juvenile when
he was second in the Champagne S. (Eng-G2), Zacinto’s return to the races this
year was delayed until August and he may have not been fully wound up when
second to Delegator (GB) in the Celebration Mile. This may have been confirmed
when he reversed the placings with Delegator while finishing a fine second to
Rip Van Winkle (Ire) in the Queen Elizabeth. Trainer Michael Stoute has had
plenty of Breeders’ Cup success and the improving Zacinto may have the best
chance of upsetting Goldikova (Ire).
Sprint (G1)
FLEETING SPIRIT (Ire) (Invincible Spirit): Filly has been in great form this
year winning the July Cup (Eng-G1) and finishing a close second in the Prix de
l’Abbaye de Longchamp (Fr-G1). With a fast pace expected her closing style
should be effective and her ability to act on soft turf suggest that she should
take to the Pro-Ride surface. Could be a major factor.
Turf (G1)
CONDUIT (Ire) (Dalakhani): Last year’s winner has been lightly campaigned
this year with just four starts. While the quality of the field he beat in the
King George VI and Queen Elizabeth II S. (Eng-G1) this summer may be
questionable, his closing fourth place finish in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe
(Fr-G1) suggests that he is ready for a top effort. Clearly the one to beat
here.
DAR RE MI (GB) (Singspiel [Ire]): Gosden-trained filly was controversially
disqualified after winning the Prix Vermeille (Fr-G1) and followed up with a
fine fifth place finish in the Arc, just a length behind Conduit (Ire). Appears
to be at her best right now and may be the main danger to last year’s winner.
RED ROCKS (Ire) (Galileo [Ire]): The 2006 winner returns having had just two
starts this year. His latest effort, a fourth place finish in the Cumberland
Lodge S. (Eng-G3), was encouraging but a victory here would be a major surprise.
SPANISH MOON (El Prado [Ire]): Temperamental stablemate of Conduit (Ire) has
improved this year. His victims in the Grand Prix De Saint Cloud (Fr-G1) this
summer included three times Arc runner-up Youmzain (Sinndar) and in the Prix Foy
(Fr-G2) he defeated Vision d’ Etat (Chichicastenango), who was coming off a win
in the Prince of Wales S. (Eng-G1). While he appears inferior to Conduit,
Spanish Moon acts well on fast turf, is at his best distance and cannot be
discounted.
Classic (G1)
RIP VAN WINKLE (Ire) (Galileo [Ire]): After being fourth behind Sea the Stars
in the Epsom Derby (Eng-G1) and second to him in the Eclipse S. (Eng-G1), Rip
Van Winkle was returned to racing over a mile and his wins in the Sussex and the
Queen Elizabeth proved him as Europe’s leader at that distance. While this
10-furlong distance should be perfect for him, the main question will be his
ability to handle the Pro-Ride surface. But since he’s performed well on softish
turf, it may be anticipated that he will the Pro-Ride. Acclaimed by O’Brien as
the best he has trained, the bay has tactical speed and has the class to give
the trainer his first Classic win.
TWICE OVER (GB) (Observatory): Four-year-old trained by Henry Cecil has
improved steadily throughout his career and produced his best performance to
date in his last start when winning the Champion S. (Eng-G1) at Newmarket. While
he will be returning off a fairly short three week break and did have a tough
race at Newmarket, Twice Over is bred to handle the Pro-Ride surface and is
well-suited to the distance.