INTERNATIONALS IN THE
BREEDERS’ CUP
NOVEMBER 6, 2009
Since it’s become customary for me to post a special Breeders’ Cup feature
outlining my thoughts on the international brigade, I feel obliged to do so once
again this year. My colleague, Tim Holland, has already posted very helpful
descriptions of each international contender in his
Breeders’ Cup Preview, so I’ll just chime in with complementary information
that won’t duplicate his efforts. Be sure to read us both to get the widest
range of information!
BREEDERS’ CUP FRIDAY
Marathon
FATHER TIME (GB) (Dansili [GB]), a full brother to French Group 1
heroine and 2007 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1) third Passage of Time
(GB), has not built upon his eye-catching four-length romp in the King Edward
VII S. (Eng-G2) at Royal Ascot this summer, but I have the nagging sense that he
is better than his last couple of races. Arguably too far off the pace in both,
the Henry Cecil colt offered a mild rally without seriously threatening in the
Great Voltigeur S. (Eng-G2) and St. Leger (Eng-G1). With more forward tactics,
and a possibly more congenial synthetic surface, Father Time is eligible to
display a sharper turn of foot.
St. Leger hero MASTERY (GB) (Sulamani [Ire]) has been installed as the
9-5 morning-line favorite after beating Father Time in his past two. The
Godolphin colt may not confirm that form at Santa Anita, however. Mastery is a
one-paced, grinding type, and he needed every bit of the St. Leger’s 14 furlongs
and 132 yards to get up by three-quarters of a length. Mastery won’t have the
luxury of the long Doncaster stretch here, and he’ll also lose those extra 132
yards. Neither of those may prove to be drawbacks to this genuine performer who
has literally never run a bad race, but he must show a tad more finesse to win
in these conditions. Mastery is a half-brother to Godolphin’s talented Kirklees
(Jade Robbery), who was a late scratch from the Melbourne Cup (Aus-G1) earlier
this week.
The royally-bred MAN OF IRON (Giant’s Causeway) has yet to live up to
his glorious pedigree. After indifferent results on the turf, Aidan O’Brien
switched him to the Dundalk Polytrack, and the chestnut responded by winning two
of three. I attribute that turnaround to class relief more than anything else,
and his well-beaten fourth in the Diamond S. (Ire-G3) on the same surface tends
to support that view. Also, for whatever it’s worth, Ballydoyle had been
planning to send Septimus (Sadler’s Wells) to the Marathon until he was ruled
out recently. I can’t escape the notion that Man of Iron is basically a stand-in
and wouldn’t be here if Septimus had been ready.
Defending champion MUHANNAK (Ire) (Chester House) has not managed to
hit the board since taking last year’s Marathon. Having come here a year ago on
an upward curve, the Ralph Beckett charge has more questions to answer this time
around.
Juvenile Fillies Turf
O’Brien’s LILLIE LANGTRY (Ire) (Danehill Dancer) is quite a bit better
than the yard’s representative last year, Heart Shaped (Storm Cat), who just
missed in the inaugural running. Successful in the Debutante S. (Ire-G2) and
Coolmore Stud Fillies Sprint (Ire-G3), Lillie Langtry is coming off an
impressive score in the Tattersalls Timeform Fillies’ 800, in a faster time than
males posted in the Tattersalls Timeform Million at Newmarket on the same day.
The dark bay is out of a well-related Darshaan mare, suggesting that she should
relish stretching out to two turns. Lillie Langtry is clearly the one to beat. (Update:
She panicked during training hours Thursday morning when she got separated from
her group and unseated her rider, but did not escape. O’Brien said that she “was
like a child after losing her mommy.” I’m inclined to think that was a reaction
to one peculiar circumstance, and hopefully not something that would recur on
raceday.)
The undefeated JUNIA TEPZIA (Ire) (Rock of Gibraltar [Ire]) has
thrashed lesser opponents in Italy and deserves to take a crack at this level.
The Team Valor International colorbearer proved that she was simply in a
different league when coasting home by 3 1/4 lengths in the Premio Coolmore. For
whatever it’s worth, one of the well-beaten also-rans in that race, Charming
Woman (Invincible Spirit), came back to capture a listed stakes at Rome on
October 25. Junia Tepzia has reportedly been a handful at Santa Anita, and at
one point unseated Kieren Fallon. Hopefully that’s not a prelude to similar
behavior on Breeders’ Cup Friday. If she keeps her cool, Junia Tepzia rates as
an intriguing contender.
ELUSIVE GALAXY (Ire) (Elusive City) brought some smart credentials to
her North American debut in the Natalma S. (Can-G3), only to disappoint in
fourth, and she needs to step up on that effort to factor here. On the other
hand, she might not have wanted to be on the lead that day, setting a contested
pace. Prior to her reverse in the Natalma, Elusive Galaxy had finished third to
Lillie Langtry in the Debutante. Two starts back, she was second in the
Ballygallon Stud S. to Long Lashes (Rock Hard Ten), who was subsequently
purchased by Godolphin and went on to capture the Sweet Solera S. (Eng-G3).
Elusive Galaxy promises to be a useful type on the Southern California turf
scene for new trainer Ben Cecil, but I’m not sure what to expect from her in
this spot.
Filly & Mare Sprint (G1)
ONLY GREEN (Ire) (Green Desert) has won a pair of French stakes going
about seven furlongs on soft turf this year, but that’s a world apart from the
conditions, and caliber of opponents, she’ll face in this spot. When tackling
Group 3-level males in the Prix de Ris-Orangis (Fr-G3) over about six furlongs
on good ground, she faded to last of 11. I wonder whether trainer Freddie Head
brought her along as a traveling companion/lady-in-waiting for Goldikova (Ire) (Anabaa)?
After all, Only Green has already served as Goldikova’s pacemaker on occasion.
Perhaps the best thing that can be said about Only Green is that she’s very well
bred. From a terrific family, she is a half-sister to French highweight older
mare, multiple Group 1-winning sprinter and successful broodmare Occupandiste
(Ire) (Kaldoun).
Filly & Mare Turf (G1)
Nassau S. (Eng-G1) heroine MIDDAY (GB) (Oasis Dream [GB]) is my top
selection in my latest
Filly & Mare Turf Diary, where I extol her virtues at length. The Juddmonte
Farms homebred was compromised by traffic trouble when missing by a head in the
Oaks (Eng-G1), just subdued by probably an above-average Oaks winner in Sariska
(Pivotal). That formline looks very strong, and Midday upheld it with her
emphatic score in the Nassau. Her only subpar efforts this season were two
thirds, with palpable excuses in each. Her third in the recent Prix de l’Opera
(Fr-G1) should serve as the perfect tightener for this engagement, which figures
to play to her most fearsome strengths. I envision her taking up a good tracking
spot early, kicking for home on the far turn and staying on too strongly for the
closers.
Ladies’ Classic (G1)
Last year’s unbeaten champion juvenile filly in Europe, RAINBOW VIEW (Dynaformer),
has some appeal as a sleeper in her synthetic debut. The John Gosden pupil took
a while to get back to her best this season, but she never ran badly in defeat.
Fifth on unsuitably firm ground in the One Thousand Guineas (Eng-G1), Rainbow
View was a mightily troubled, if well-beaten, fourth in the Oaks, and she was
again hampered en route to a sneakily-good third in the Coronation S. (Eng-G1).
After finishing a close fourth to Goldikova and Heaven Sent in the Falmouth S.
(Eng-G1), Rainbow View turned the corner. She was a gallant runner-up to Midday
in the Nassau, then convincingly defeated older foes in the Matron S. (Ire-G1).
In both of those efforts, she turned the tables on Heaven Sent, underscoring how
much she had progressed since midsummer. Although Rainbow View was upset by the
inexplicable Lahaleeb (Ire) (Redback) in the E.P. Taylor S. (Can-G1) last out, I
have an inkling that she’s just not a true 1 1/4-mile filly. Hence the 1 1/8
miles of the Ladies’ Classic may be the best trip for her. As a half-sister to
this year’s Northern Dancer Turf S. (Can-G1) winner Just as Well (A.P. Indy) and
Bewitch S. (G3) queen Winter View (Thunder Gulch), Rainbow View hails from the
family of 2008 Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) star Raven’s Pass. Note that Gosden
had previously compared Rainbow View to Ryafan, herself a top-two-year-old who
took some time to come to herself at three, but concluded 1997 with a five-race
winning streak and an Eclipse Award.
PROVISO (GB) (Dansili [GB]) should be evaluated principally on the
basis of her Spinster S. (G1) performance, but I’ll throw her in because all of
her prior experience came in Europe. Although the Juddmonte filly showed talent
at two, winning the Prix du Calvados (Fr-G3) and placing second in the Fillies’
Mile (Eng-G1), she lost her way at three and appeared to be a cut below proper
Group 1 standard. Proviso did not dispel that notion early on in this campaign,
but she began to come around for former trainer Andre Fabre over the summer.
When third to Goldikova in the Prix Rothschild (Fr-G1), Proviso defeated a few
tough customers. Next time out, she won the Prix du Pin (Fr-G3), narrowly
beating the colt Varenar (Rock of Gibraltar [Ire]), who came back to upset
Goldikova in the Prix de la Foret (Fr-G1). For a filly who had acted like the
sort who just didn’t train on, Proviso’s renaissance has come as a bit of a
surprise to me. Perhaps because of her past failures, I half-expect the other
shoe to drop at some point, but that may be far too harsh and uncharitable a
view. If she can keep up her current form, she warrants respect.
BREEDERS’ CUP SATURDAY
Juvenile Turf (G2)
POUNCED (Rahy) is qualified to hand Gosden his second straight victory
in this event, following on the heels of Donativum (GB) (Cadeaux Genereux) one
year ago. Unlike Donativum, who never took part in a Group race at two, and
whose formlines were compelling because they tied in with others, Pounced is
already proven at the Group 1 level himself. Stepping up off his three-length
maiden score at Newbury, the chestnut set the pace in the Prix Jean-Luc
Lagardere (Grand Criterium) (Fr-G1) and yielded only to the Aga Khan’s seasoned
and highly-regarded Siyouni (Pivotal). Pounced defeated a few notable rivals in
that deep race, despite his relative lack of experience. He was then under
consideration for such major contests as the Dewhurst S. (Eng-G1) and Racing
Post Trophy (Eng-G1), but once the fall brought more rain to England, Gosden
decided to aim for the Breeders’ Cup. With his tactical speed, he figures to get
a lovely ground-saving trip. Pounced has an alluring pedigree that blends
high-class speed and stamina. His second dam, Irish St. Leger (Ire-G1) queen
Eurobird (Ire) (Ela-Mana-Mou), is a half-sister to two champions — Irish Derby
(Ire-G1) conqueror Assert (Ire) (Be My Guest) and French Derby (Fr-G1) hero
Bikala (Kalamoun).
If Pounced is an improved version of Donativum, the O’Brien-trained
VISCOUNT NELSON (Giant’s Causeway) is an improved version of last year’s
runner-up from the same yard, Westphalia (Ire) (Danehill Dancer). Viscount
Nelson is bred to enjoy firm turf, but has kept running into softer-than-ideal
conditions in Europe. Add in the fact that he tends to be lackadaisical, and
requires some encouragement to put forth an effort, and it’s safe to say that he
has a lot more to offer than his bare past performances suggest. Viscount Nelson
was most recently second in a salty renewal of the Champagne S. (Eng-G2),
failing to catch Godolphin’s much-touted Poet’s Voice (Dubawi) by three-quarters
of a length. With his glittering pedigree (as discussed by my colleague Vance
Hanson in his
Juvenile Diary), Viscount Nelson is probably crying out for a longer
distance already. My only reservation about him is that he may want even more
ground than Santa Anita’s fast, two-turn mile, and he may be caught for speed at
a certain stage. That’s pure conjecture, though, and even if I happen to be
right on that score, he’s still a near-certainty to finish in the top three.
AWESOME ACT (Awesome Again) is a sneaky 20-1 on the morning line for
Jeremy Noseda, who masterminded Wilko’s stunning upset in the 2004 Juvenile
(G1). Out of a full sister to French champion two-year-old and outstanding sire
Machiavellian (Mr. Prospector), the chestnut was nominated to an array of
prestigious races before his debut. He then had the misfortune to hook a couple
of Godolphin Group horses-in-the-making in his first two starts, finishing
second to future Racing Post Trophy third Al Zir (Medaglia d’Oro) and then just
losing on the line to subsequent Group 3-placed Ameer (Monsun). When at last
breaking his maiden in style, he beat next-out Autumn S. (Eng-G3) winner Morana
(Alhaarth). Things went wrong for Awesome Act in the Dewhurst, where he was
compromised by a troubled start and unable to make an impression. He gets a
positive rider switch to top British pilot Ryan Moore, and if he can get off to
a clean beginning, Awesome Act is capable of producing a serious change of gear
late.
BUZZWORD (GB) (Pivotal) faces a tall task from the dreadful 12 post.
The Godolphin colt is an honest sort who has been holding his own among some
heavy hitters, but I don’t think he has as much upside as the aforementioned
trio. Buzzword benefited from a tactically-astute ride to beat Siyouni three starts back,
but that result was turned upside down last time out, when he finished third to
Siyouni and Pounced in the Grand Criterium. I can’t see why Buzzword would be
able to gain his revenge on Pounced here.
Much the same can be said of KING LEDLEY (Stormin Fever), who will be
making his U.S. debut for Darrin Miller. Although the dark bay has been
performing fairly consistently in quite smart company in Ireland, he seems to
have reached his plateau. Like Viscount Nelson, however, King Ledley could show
a new dimension on firm turf. I’m not persuaded he’s going to move up going two
turns, being by Stormin Fever and out of a Mt. Livermore mare, but he is out of
a half-sister to Florida Derby (G1) star and Classic hopeful Quality Road
(Elusive Quality).
Turf Sprint
LORD SHANAKILL (Speightstown) has been pointing to the Breeders’ Cup
ever since his owner transferred him to Richard Mandella over the summer. Among
the most accomplished juveniles in England last year, he missed by a nose in the
Dewhurst, and has been somewhat unlucky as a miler this season. Lord Shanakill
spiked a fever that prevented him from getting a prep race under his belt for
the Two Thousand Guineas (Eng-G1), and it showed as he wound up a distant 12th.
He turned in much more representative efforts in his next two — a commendable
third in the St. James’s Palace (Eng-G1) to Mastercraftsman (Ire) (Danehill
Dancer) and Delegator (GB) (Dansili [GB]), and a victory in the Prix Jean Prat
(Fr-G1), holding on for dear life by a head. A return to sprinting could be
right up his alley, and he has been training sharply for Mandella. Lord
Shanakill has the raw talent, if he is ready to fire his best shot off a
three-month layoff.
I was all set to lobby for STRIKE THE DEAL (Van Nistelrooy) as an
upset candidate, until a last-minute complication arose that prevented his
taking to the track Wednesday morning. On his website, Noseda described it as a
“little problem with bruising to his near fore foot.” Strike the Deal was able
to return to the track Thursday morning, apparently in better shape. It’s one
thing to have a setback far enough out from a race so one has time to recover;
it’s obviously more difficult to have an 11th-hour problem. Strike the Deal was
in the best form since his juvenile days, when he won the Richmond S. (Eng-G2),
finished a close second in the Middle Park S. (Eng-G1) and fourth in the
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (where I rather liked him). After toiling in the
sprinting ranks without much distinction for the better part of two years, he
suddenly whipped back into form once teaming up with new rider Fallon two starts
ago. A change in tactics did the trick. With Fallon taking him further back
early, and producing him late, Strike the Deal has won both races, the
Scarborough S. in course-record time at Doncaster and the Dubai World Trophy
(Eng-G3). In the latter, he beat Total Gallery (Namid), who came back to defeat
Fleeting Spirit (Ire) (Invincible Spirit) in the Prix de l’Abbaye (Fr-G1). That
form makes him a legitimate contender, if we can only see the real, healthy
Strike the Deal Saturday.
Dirt Mile (G1)
MASTERCRAFTSMAN (Ire) (Danehill Dancer), who would have been a threat
in the Classic, is on merit the best horse in the race by some way. Last year’s
European champion two-year-old after pulverizing his opponents in the Phoenix S.
(Ire-G1), and battling to photo-finish victories in the National S. (Ire-G1) and
Railway S. (Ire-G2), the O’Brien colt has shown more stamina than the average
miler this campaign. Mastercraftsman sluiced through soft going to romp in the
Irish Two Thousand Guineas (Ire-G1) and just outstayed Delegator in the St.
James’s Palace. That tenacious success led O’Brien to compare him to Giant’s
Causeway, and he duly stepped up to the vicinity of 1 1/4 miles or so for his
next three starts — the Juddmonte International (Eng-G1), where he momentarily
threatened to upend Sea the Stars, until that true great overhauled him; the
Irish Champion S. (Ire-G1), where he tired to third after chasing a fast pace;
and the Diamond S. (Ire-G3) against an overmatched group on Dundalk’s Polytrack.
Mastercraftsman is now dropping back sharply in trip, and while the prospects
for an upset do not appear likely, the cut-back has the potential to be tricky.
He has a relentlessly high cruising speed, but I wonder whether this spot — one
mile on a flat track — is ideal for him. Nevertheless, as the class of the
field, Mastercraftsman is entitled to win, regardless of whether it’s his
favorite set-up or not.
Juvenile (G1)
Of the four Europeans, new IEAH recruit RADIOHEAD (GB) (Johannesburg)
is the most enticing. The Brian Meehan pupil overcame horrendous trouble in deep
stretch — no exaggeration — to win the Norfolk S. (Eng-G2) at Royal Ascot
going away. If you have not yet seen this race, watch the video and determine
for yourself how badly he was slammed into, and how understandable it would have
been if he had gotten the wind knocked out of him, or lost his concentration, or
simply got frightened. Brushing that aside like an old pro, Radiohead righted
himself instantly and staged a remarkable recovery. The chestnut was next thrown
to the wolves against a tough, grizzled set of veteran sprinters in the
Nunthorpe S. (Eng-G1), but proved himself to be no lamb. Radiohead rolled home
late for third, beaten all of 1 1/2 lengths by two-time Nunthorpe winner
Borderlescott (Compton Place). I think Jamie Spencer moved too soon on him when
he faded to fourth in the Mill Reef S. (Eng-G2), and sure enough, with Martin
Dwyer back aboard last time out, he flew in the final yards to grab second to the
highly-regarded Awzaan (Alhaarth) in the Middle Park. Dwyer, who
gets along very well with him, has the Breeders’ Cup mount.
Godolphin’s VALE OF YORK (Ire) (Invincible Spirit) has grown on me
over the last day or so, especially since Saeed bin Suroor just said that he works well on a Tapeta
surface. He has solid European form and figures to be ignored in
the wagering. A good-looking debut winner at York, he was slow to break in the Acomb
S. (Eng-G3) but finished a creditable fifth. That Acomb has turned out to be a
key race, with the winner Elusive Pimpernel (Elusive Quality) going on to finish
second in the Racing Post Trophy, the runner-up Emerald Commander (Pivotal)
subsequently runner-up in the Criterium International (Fr-G1), and the
third-placer Poet’s Voice going on to beat Viscount Nelson in the Champagne.
Vale of York promptly rebounded with a driving score in the Stardom S., and next
he was a good third in the Royal Lodge (Eng-G2), whose sixth-placer Mikhail
Glinka (Galileo [Ire]) has since romped in the Eyrefield S. Vale of York was
most recently a near-miss second in the Gran Criterium (Ity-G1) at Milan, where
he was forwardly placed early and led in the stretch before being caught late.
From the black type-rich family of Guineas hero King of Kings (Ire), Vale of
York could emerge as a long-range U.A.E. Derby (UAE-G2) hopeful. I can envision
him factoring here at tantalizing odds.
I have mixed feelings about the O’Brien pair, neither of whom looks up to
pulling a Johannesburg-style victory. ALFRED NOBEL (Ire) (Danehill
Dancer) won the Phoenix and Railway this summer, but I don’t think those were
especially strong renewals. Last of six on unsuitably soft ground in the
National, he was most recently fifth in the Tattersalls Timeform Million.
Considering that the top four were all racing on the far side of the course, and
he did the best of those on the stands’ side, there was likely a draw bias at
work. Still, he was beaten 5 1/2 lengths, and the winner posted a slower time
than Lillie Langtry. BEETHOVEN (Ire) (Oratorio [Ire]), in contrast, is on
the upswing. After looking like a second-rate animal for his first nine starts,
he suddenly sprang to life when blinkers were added for the Dewhurst, and he
pulled a 33-1 upset. Perhaps notably for his Breeders’ Cup prospects, however,
Beethoven needed time to pick up, and he won’t get a stiff test like Newmarket
here. O’Brien has compared Beethoven to his sire, Oratorio (Ire), who similarly
kept improving over time, but I’m afraid that he may get outpaced and find things happening too fast for
him at Santa Anita. Hence, of the two, Alfred Nobel is probably the one better
suited to the Juvenile. The fact that Johnny Murtagh rides would
ordinarily suggest that there’s more confidence behind Alfred Nobel as well.
Still, note that Moore did a brilliant job when picking up the mount on
Beethoven in the Dewhurst, and it’s logical to keep him on Beethoven.
Mile (G1)
Even a difficult draw is not enough for me to lose faith in defending
champion GOLDIKOVA (Ire) (Anabaa), who just appears to be a class apart.
Suffice it to say that trainer Freddie Head has been delighted with her
condition coming into her title defense. Goldikova has simply destroyed some of
the best milers in Europe this season, and there’s no compelling reason to think
that she can’t mete out the same treatment to her Breeders’ Cup rivals. Her
acceleration is a thing of beauty.
DELEGATOR (GB) (Dansili [GB]) had the misfortune of clashing with Sea the
Stars in the Guineas and Mastercraftsman in the St. James’s Palace, but he
pressed each to dig deeper to repel his challenge. In an ordinary year,
Delegator may well have won both prizes. Subsequently snapped up by Godolphin,
he delivered his trademark turn of foot to win the Celebration Mile (Eng-G2).
Delegator was disappointing in the Queen Elizabeth II (Eng-G1) most recently at
Ascot, where he launched a bid, only to weaken and checked in a well-beaten
third. Santa Anita should suit him much better than Ascot, and he deserves to
rank as the second choice here.
Juddmonte’s ZACINTO (GB) (Dansili [GB]) ran a far better race in the
QEII, accosting Rip Van Winkle (Ire) (Galileo [Ire]) before being rebuffed and
settling for a terrific second. If you like Rip Van Winkle in the Classic (as I
do), then as a matter of strict logic, you should like Zacinto here. Alas, while
I have great respect for Zacinto, and fear him as a top-tier contender, my
concerns for him in this spot outweigh my high regard for him in principle. The
mile at Ascot is a taxing one, putting a premium on stamina, and quite unlike
the pure speed required at Santa Anita. Earlier this summer, Zacinto’s
connections had revealed that they expect his optimum trip to be 1 1/4 miles. In
keeping with that assessment, the original plan after the QEII was to stretch him out to that trip in the Champion S. (Eng-G1) at Newmarket,
and the Mile was just not on his agenda. Unfortunately, Zacinto sustained a slight muscle pull, and Stoute
rerouted him to the Mile. Zacinto is a high-class performer who has never finished worse
than second in his brief career, but he may not have the push-button
acceleration to maintain that record here.
I tabbed Godolphin’s exuberant front runner GLADIATORUS (Silic [Fr])
as my longshot in my last
Turf Diary,
where I discussed Goldikova and Delegator in depth as well. I’ll confine myself
to saying that Gladiatorus
is capable of wiring a top-notch field on his day. Conditions at Santa Anita
should be ideal for him.
Sprint (G1)
I would have preferred
FLEETING SPIRIT (Ire) (Invincible Spirit) to take another crack at the Turf
Sprint, where she was eligible to improve on her fourth-place effort from last
year, but Noseda has opted for this spot. Fleeting Spirit is a top-class sprinter who has
excelled against males for the past two seasons, and she is likely even better
this year at four. Runner-up to Australian supremo Scenic Blast (Scenic [Ire])
in the King’s Stand S. (Eng-G1) at Royal Ascot in her 2009 debut, she then
emphatically dismissed her rivals in the July Cup (Eng-G1). Fleeting Spirit had
excuses in her last two, finding the ground too soft in the Sprint Cup (Eng-G1)
and having a problem with the stalls handlers before getting off slowly in the
Abbaye, but she still finished a close second in both. Although Fleeting Spirit trains on synthetic at home, and the surface in and of
itself is not a concern, the problem is that main-track sprinting is America’s
game. Fleeting Spirit has the talent to perform well, but tackling the likes of
North America’s elite speed burners on their own home court is awfully tough.
She also reportedly didn’t break well when schooling from the gate Friday
morning.
Turf (G1)
I treated the principal Europeans exhaustively in my
Turf Diary, so will just
hit the bullet points here.
I believe that Juddmonte’s SPANISH MOON (El Prado [Ire]) is
world-class, and he comes here off two smart victories in the Grand Prix de
Saint-Cloud (Fr-G1) and Prix Foy (Fr-G2) for Stoute. Although gate issues have
caused him to be banned from Britain for the past six months, Spanish Moon has
not had a problem in France, and he has reportedly schooled well at Santa Anita.
Note that Stoute just said that there is little to choose between Spanish Moon
and his defending Turf champion CONDUIT (Ire) (Dalakhani), confirming the
view I expressed in the Diary. Spanish Moon projects a stalking trip with new
rider Fallon, he’ll get the jump on Conduit, and he won’t be easy to run down.
The filly DAR RE MI (GB) (Singspiel [Ire]) has solid claims to upstage
both Stoute horses. Trained by Gosden, the royally-bred four-year-old had chased
the peerless Zarkava last year, and this season, she has beaten Oaks winner
Sariska (discussed above in my entry on Midday) and French Oaks (Fr-G1) queen
Stacelita (Monsun). Dar Re Mi proved that she could mix it up with Europe’s best
males when finishing a close fifth in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (Fr-G1),
historically a key race for producing Turf winners. Dar Re Mi was only a length
behind fourth-placer Conduit that day, and I suspect that she can reverse that
at Santa Anita with new pilot Frankie Dettori. Like Spanish Moon, she should be
forwardly placed early.
Conduit has done nothing wrong since his blistering triumph here one year
ago, and I could be woefully underestimating him. After capturing the
prestigious King George VI and Queen Elizabeth S. (Eng-G1) in late July, the chestnut was
freshened in advance of an autumn campaign. Hence Conduit did very well to
finish fourth in the Arc, missing second by two heads, and he stands to improve
here, especially reverting to a left-handed course. The Breeders’
Cup has always been his principal objective, and Stoute surely has him primed.
My one sticking point is that Spanish Moon and Dar Re Mi are better than the
horses he beat in the 2008 Turf, and that’s why I’m inclined to think that an
upset of this heavy favorite could be in the offing.
The inscrutable RED ROCKS (Ire) (Galileo [Ire]), hero of the 2006
Turf, will be making his swan song. The Brian Meehan veteran was an encouraging
fourth in a strong renewal of the Cumberland Lodge S. (Eng-G3) last out in his
return from a six-month layoff, and he will get the fast pace/firm turf set-up
that he relishes. On the debit side of the ledger, however, he is scheduled to
be sold at Fasig-Tipton next week, and this smacks of a roll of the dice to
boost his marketability as a stallion. It’s hard to escape the notion that his
best days are past, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he rallies for fourth.
Classic (G1)
I love RIP VAN WINKLE (Ire) (Galileo [Ire]), who would have been
hailed as Europe’s glamour three-year-old, were it not for Sea the Stars. Long
highly regarded, he suffered serious foot trouble over the winter that
interrupted his preparation for the classics. The full extent of those problems
was only just made public earlier this week. Rip nevertheless performed
admirably when fourth in both the Guineas and the Derby (Eng-G1). The bay colt
finally began to justify his enormous reputation in the about 1 1/4-mile Eclipse
S. (Eng-G1), where he tracked Sea the Stars, kept pace with that great rival,
and accelerated to issue a stern challenge. Sea the Stars hurled him back in
stakes-record time, but Rip crushed everyone else by a long way, led by
third-placer Conduit. Had Sea the Stars run in the Irish Derby (Ire-G1) as
originally planned, Rip would have been lionized as a mind-boggling winner of
the Eclipse. Since then, despite the recurrence of foot trouble, Rip has
outclassed first-rate milers in the Sussex S. (Eng-G1) and QEII. In both of
those races, Rip has displayed tactical speed and a ferocious kick. In the QEII,
he showed stamina to pull away from Zacinto and won somewhat cleverly. O’Brien
has called Rip the best he’s ever trained. While I’m not qualified to pass
judgment on that, I rank him as the best Classic contender O’Brien’s ever had.
His form through Sea the Stars is simply invincible. I have the utmost
confidence in Rip, believe that he’ll handle the surface, and expect him to give Ballydoyle its long-awaited
first Classic trophy.
Juddmonte’s TWICE OVER (GB) (Observatory) should have been given more
respect than 20-1 on the morning line, which is nothing short of an insult to a
Cecil-trained Group 1 winner. I had covered his background in my last
International Diary, outlining his trading decisions last year with Raven’s
Pass, who went on to land the 2008 Classic. Cecil maintains that Twice Over is
better in 2009, and that he exited his career-best victory in the October 17
Champion in grand shape. As much as I respect the connections, I am worried
about the fact that the Classic will be his fourth race in two months, and that
he’s coming off three weeks’ rest. That pattern is reminiscent of when he
flopped behind Sea the Stars and Rip in the Eclipse. Like Zacinto in the Mile,
Twice Over was not reckoned as a Breeders’ Cup contender until after his most
recent race, at which point he was pitched into the equation. I won’t be
entirely surprised if Twice Over outperforms his odds, but I rate him more than
a cut below Rip.