JUVENILE DIARY
NOVEMBER 4, 2009
by Vance Hanson
I’m not straying too far off the reservation in either Breeders’ Cup race for
juvenile colts and geldings. Affinity for the Santa Anita strip has been the
virtual key to success in the Juvenile (G1) every time it has been contested
there, whether on dirt or Pro-Ride. The Juvenile Turf (G2) has only been run
twice previously, so no discernible patterns have emerged as to what kind of
horse tends to have the most success in it. Instead, I’ll stay with the tried
and true motto of “class on the grass,” though my view of what constitutes
superior class may not look so astute once the results come in.
JUVENILE
1st — LOOKIN AT LUCKY (Smart Strike) is hardly
brilliant from a BRIS Speed rating perspective nor in the way he’s won most of
his races this year, but by gosh the undefeated colt sure does like whatever
that stuff is they run on in California. And that’s really all that matters once
the gates open. Trainer Bob Baffert continues to be pleased with the way the bay
has prepared for this, and I won’t argue with him as it’s the others in the field
who have to worry about either the footing, the distance or both. He’s already a
pro in both respects, and is the deserving favorite.
2nd — ESKENDEREYA
(Giant’s Causeway) strikes trainer Todd Pletcher’s fancy enough for him to
bypass a seemingly more logical spot in the Juvenile Turf. As a son of Giant’s
Causeway, the chestnut can probably run on everything, and he will have by the
time Saturday night rolls around. Runner-up in a two-turn turf maiden at
Saratoga, the chestnut returned to take the Pilgrim S. Belmont Park, which was
downgraded after it was switched from turf to dirt, by 7 1/4 lengths. It was
a fine effort that yielded a solid 95 Speed rating over a track that was clearly
drying out and tiring. He’s clearly an individual with multiple avenues for
future success.
3rd — D’ FUNNYBONE (D’wildcat), along with
Jackson Bend (Hear No Evil), are the two best juveniles I’ve seen on dirt this
year. Take that for what it’s worth, which might not be a whole lot for a race
contested on Pro-Ride. The bottom line is that I’m expecting the Rick Dutrow
pupil’s class to get him through to at least a minor award. He’s looked
outstanding in winning the Saratoga Special S. (G2) and Futurity S. (G2) by wide
margins, and though he will stretch out beyond seven furlongs for the first time
in addition to trying a foreign surface, his raw ability might take him a long
way.
Longshot — PISCITELLI (Victory Gallop), as we
noted in our last edition, looks like the kind who will make great strides at
nine furlongs and farther over dirt. He hasn’t looked quite as home on synthetic
as he did in his first two starts on dirt at Monmouth, rallying for third in a
slowly-run renewal of the Arlington-Washington Futurity (G3) and finishing fifth
in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1). He gets a pass for the latter effort after
breaking slower than usual, trailing the 14-horse field for a half-mile and
making a notable three-wide move to improve his position. A price play for those
going deep in the vertical exotics.
JUVENILE TURF
1st — VISCOUNT NELSON (Giant’s Causeway) is a
beautifully-bred colt flying the flag for the Coolmore connections. A son of
Epsom Oaks (Eng-G1) winner Imagine (Ire) (Sadler’s Wells), who has also produced
French Group 1-winning juvenile Horatio Nelson (Danehill), Group 2-winning
juvenile Kitty Matcham (Rock of Gibraltar [Ire]) and her multiple Group 1-placed
full brother Red Rock Canyon (Ire), the dark bay has the bloodlines to be any
kind. While his second in the Champagne S. (Eng-G2) at Doncaster last time was
not spectacular visually, he made great strides that day off a win in a listed
stakes at Tipperary. He appears to handle any footing, a good thing as the
course will undoubtedly be very firm for this. The Europeans have been making
American turf stars look second rate for a while now, so I’m betting the trend
continues here.
2nd — INTERACTIF (Broken Vow) is easily the
best juvenile turf colt to come out of this country in some time. The probable
favorite here, he displayed an amazing turn of foot to reach the front in both
the With Anticipation S. (G3) and Bourbon S. (G3), the latter over a course that
might have been a little soft for his liking. He really doesn’t have any holes
and only a bad trip might prevent him from keeping this lucrative prize home. At
a short price, however, I’ll take a stab elsewhere.
3rd — POUNCED (Rahy) has run first or second in
all three starts, the latest being a second in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere
(Fr-G1) on the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (Fr-G1) undercard. A plus in his corner
is trainer John Gosden, the man responsible for Raven’s Pass in last year’s
Classic (G1). From the running lines the colt appears to have a touch of speed
and should be within striking distance the whole way. He might prove to be the
more formidable European invader.
Longshot — BECKY’S KITTEN (Kitten’s Joy) was
going nowhere fast on dirt, but this son of 2004 turf male champion Kitten’s Joy
has expectedly relished the switch to grass, starting with a maiden score at
Saratoga and followed by a last-to-second rally in the Summer S. (Can-G3) at
Woodbine. He’s been working lights-out since his arrival in California, and
could be an enticing win prospect if the price is in double-digit territory. He
could certainly be rated higher here.