Keeneland Notebook

KEENELAND NOTEBOOK

NOVEMBER 6, 2009

by Frank Cotolo

The brief Keeneland 2009 Fall meet leading up to Breeders' Cup weekend came

to a close on October 31. A total of 162 races through the month, on Polytrack

and the turf, presented no great bias on either surface but revealed some

terrific trends that deserve attention as Kentucky racing moves to Churchill

Downs for a 21-day stand.

The wagering public, on and off track, bet successfully in the neighborhood

of their usual rate, choosing 30 percent of the winners. However, according to

statistics from the track, that public was larger in numbers than usual, due to

better exposure.

Keeneland's signal during the October meet was made available for the first

time to national account-wagering platforms through Churchill Downs and Magna

Entertainment. Prior to the spring meet of '09, the races from Keeneland had

been exclusive to Television Games Network and that reduced its exposure to many

account-wagering operations. Keeneland officials said that the increase in

overall wagering more than suggested a great demand in the signal in

out-of-state locations, calling it "especially robust."

Track trends

The Polytrack was on a very level playing performance rate through the meet,

with speed in the sprints doing no worse than it would sans any track

disturbance for closers. In fact, it was no danger to be a horse coming out of

the clouds in sprints and routes.

However, horses coming to this meet from Polytrack to Polytrack were easily

sharp contenders. Until the final week of racing, which was only four programs,

Arlington offered more winners than shippers from any other track. Through the

final week, horses coming off Arlington starts tallied 41 victories, easily the

highest for the month and more than runner-up Turfway, which, of course, is also

running races on synthetic ground.

But by the end of the meet, the best bets were horses returning from the same

meet. There was a quick turn around but the second week of the meet 20 horses

returned from Keeneland's opening '09 weekend. Five won, resulting in a

25-percent average. In the final four programs, another 57 returned to race and

15 won. All told, 77 returning horses went to the post for the second time this

meet and 17 won for a whopping 22 percent.

The most remarkable part of it was that few to none were public choices. If

you caught on to it, as we mentioned in the Notebook just before the final four

programs, we hope you were able to cash in on the trend.

Trainers

Another sweet statistic has to do with top trainer Ken McPeek. In the final

four programs it is obvious he led all trainers, having seven wins. However, a

closer look shows that four of the seven were horses breaking their maidens.

McPeek's talent with youngsters was noted here when we brought to your attention

his strong maiden stats at the beginning of the meet. That continued to

increase, as McPeek easily stood out from all trainers for the brief meet.

Also fairing well with maidens was Michael Maker, who did not have a winner

that was, so to speak, a winner. He sent out 17 maidens to break their

non-winning status and five of them accomplished the task. Eddie Kenneally had

another first-time starter win this last week, so keep an eye on debuts from his

students on any surface.

HORSES TO WATCH

This section of the Notebook did not have a healthy number of horses return

to make any impact. However, the remainder of those horses on our lists that did

not come back should be addressed in their next two starts. From the lists, we

had one winner from six that came back (at any track).

SMARTEN DESTINY (Smart Strike) in the 5TH race on October 30 won and paid

$7.60. CITIZEN JOHN (Proud Citizen) was second in the 3RD race on October 29 and

paid $24.80 to place.

All the others remain alive, especially on Polytrack, unless a turf comment

appears. Check the Notebooks, still online, to update your list.