KEENELAND NOTEBOOK
NOVEMBER 6, 2009
by Frank Cotolo
The brief Keeneland 2009 Fall meet leading up to Breeders’ Cup weekend came
to a close on October 31. A total of 162 races through the month, on Polytrack
and the turf, presented no great bias on either surface but revealed some
terrific trends that deserve attention as Kentucky racing moves to Churchill
Downs for a 21-day stand.
The wagering public, on and off track, bet successfully in the neighborhood
of their usual rate, choosing 30 percent of the winners. However, according to
statistics from the track, that public was larger in numbers than usual, due to
better exposure.
Keeneland’s signal during the October meet was made available for the first
time to national account-wagering platforms through Churchill Downs and Magna
Entertainment. Prior to the spring meet of ’09, the races from Keeneland had
been exclusive to Television Games Network and that reduced its exposure to many
account-wagering operations. Keeneland officials said that the increase in
overall wagering more than suggested a great demand in the signal in
out-of-state locations, calling it “especially robust.”
Track trends
The Polytrack was on a very level playing performance rate through the meet,
with speed in the sprints doing no worse than it would sans any track
disturbance for closers. In fact, it was no danger to be a horse coming out of
the clouds in sprints and routes.
However, horses coming to this meet from Polytrack to Polytrack were easily
sharp contenders. Until the final week of racing, which was only four programs,
Arlington offered more winners than shippers from any other track. Through the
final week, horses coming off Arlington starts tallied 41 victories, easily the
highest for the month and more than runner-up Turfway, which, of course, is also
running races on synthetic ground.
But by the end of the meet, the best bets were horses returning from the same
meet. There was a quick turn around but the second week of the meet 20 horses
returned from Keeneland’s opening ’09 weekend. Five won, resulting in a
25-percent average. In the final four programs, another 57 returned to race and
15 won. All told, 77 returning horses went to the post for the second time this
meet and 17 won for a whopping 22 percent.
The most remarkable part of it was that few to none were public choices. If
you caught on to it, as we mentioned in the Notebook just before the final four
programs, we hope you were able to cash in on the trend.
Trainers
Another sweet statistic has to do with top trainer Ken McPeek. In the final
four programs it is obvious he led all trainers, having seven wins. However, a
closer look shows that four of the seven were horses breaking their maidens.
McPeek’s talent with youngsters was noted here when we brought to your attention
his strong maiden stats at the beginning of the meet. That continued to
increase, as McPeek easily stood out from all trainers for the brief meet.
Also fairing well with maidens was Michael Maker, who did not have a winner
that was, so to speak, a winner. He sent out 17 maidens to break their
non-winning status and five of them accomplished the task. Eddie Kenneally had
another first-time starter win this last week, so keep an eye on debuts from his
students on any surface.
HORSES TO WATCH
This section of the Notebook did not have a healthy number of horses return
to make any impact. However, the remainder of those horses on our lists that did
not come back should be addressed in their next two starts. From the lists, we
had one winner from six that came back (at any track).
SMARTEN DESTINY (Smart Strike) in the 5TH race on October 30 won and paid
$7.60. CITIZEN JOHN (Proud Citizen) was second in the 3RD race on October 29 and
paid $24.80 to place.
All the others remain alive, especially on Polytrack, unless a turf comment
appears. Check the Notebooks, still online, to update your list.