OAK TREE NOTEBOOK
BREEDERS’ CUP WEEK EDITION
by John Mucciolo
No graded races were held during the final weekend leading into the Breeders’
Cup.
Track Stats
From a total of 42 races held over the Arcadia racetrack during the week,
favorites won at a 52 percent clip and the top two betting choices combined for
76 percent of the wins. From 29 frays contested on the Pro-Ride oval, 10 animals
won in wire-to-wire fashion (34 percent), while five of the 13 grassy tussles
went all the way on the lead (38 percent).
Speed played a much more prominent role this past week than at any other
juncture during the meeting, yielding numerous winners on both the main oval and
turf. We’re not too worried about the track being biased for the big weekend,
but it’s something we’ll keep an eye on for Wednesday and throughout the week.
Bob Baffert, who is winning at a terrific 31 percent clip this meet
(16-for-52 overall; 15-for-46 on the Pro-Ride), continued his sizzling ways last
week, sweeping the first four races on Sunday’s program. He’ll have four
starters in the Breeders’ Cup, and all of them appear to be training forwardly
heading into their main engagement.
The bettors are having success for the majority of the meet, with 64 percent
of the top two betting choices coming through at the wire.
Meet Totals
| RACES: | 222 | |
| PRO-RIDE: | 155 | |
| TURF: | 67 | |
| FAVORITES: | 92 (41 percent) | |
| 2ND CHOICES: | 52 (23 percent) | |
| TURF WIRE: | 11 (16 percent) | |
| PRO-RIDE WIRE: | 25 (16 percent) |
Post Positions (wins):
| RAIL: | 32 | |
| 1-3: | 96 | |
| 4-6: | 74 | |
| 7-out: | 52 |
BREEDERS’ CUP HORSES TO WATCH
Friday (11/6)
Juvenile Fillies — LILLIE LANGTRY (Ire) (Danehill Dancer) is the most
highly regarded import in this deep race and has been bet down to cents on the
dollar in her last trio of affairs. While the competition is tough, she may go
off at 5-2 or more for the first time since her debut.
Filly and Mare Sprint (G1) — In a race with very little early speed signed
on, multiple Grade 1 queen SEVENTH STREET (Street Cry [Ire]) could be the
one to catch turning for home for conditioner Saeed bin Suroor. The filly has
never run on a synthetic oval, but if she thrives on it, look out!
Juvenile Fillies (G1) — BIOFUEL (Stormin Fever) rallied into a
moderate pace to inhale her foes in the Mazarine S. (Can-G3) over Woodbine’s
Polytrack last out. Trainer Reade Baker knows how to get a good one ready for a
race of this caliber, and since we see this field as somewhat questionable, a
big price on this filly might be worth a stab.
Filly and Mare Turf (G1) — PURE CLAN (Pure Prize) was just a shell of
herself in this race last season and big improvement is expected this time
around. The classy four-year-old was especially impressive in the Flower Bowl
Invitational S. (G1) most recently, pulling away late over a course she didn’t
particularly care for.
Ladies’ Classic (G1) — In the most evenly matched field of the day, two-time
Group 1 heroine RAINBOW VIEW (Dynaformer) might fall through the cracks
some after her runner-up finish in the E. P. Taylor S. (Can-G1) in her North
American debut. Her best puts her right there.
Saturday (11/7)
Dirt Mile (G1) — Four-time Group 1 star MASTERCRAFTSMAN (Ire)
(Danehill Dancer) looks to be heads and shoulders clear of this field and should
win unless something awful happens to the colt breaking from the rail. He might
be the single of the two-day program.
Juvenile (G1) — Regular readers of the notebook could verify that we’ve been
bullish on the chances of PULSION (Include) to make an impact in a race
of this stature, and we’re standing firm on our original thoughts of the Patrick
Biancone charge.
Mile (G1) — ZACINTO (GB) (Zacinto [GB]) has never been worse than
second and put in a spirited rally to be runner-up in the competitive Queen
Elizabeth II S. (Eng-G1) for Juddmonte.
Sprint (G1) — GAYEGO (Gilded Time) was so visually impressive in his
Ancient Title S. (G1) romp that we could argue for him to be favored against
this fine field. The Godolphin color bearer might not be a true six-furlong
horse, but an early speed duel could be enough to vault him to a win with any
improvement.
Classic (G1) — ZENYATTA (Street Cry [Ire]) has never lost and was
really only challenged once or twice, so we expect a huge showing against the
boys in her toughest task to date.
A Look Ahead
The 26th running of the Breeders’ Cup will take place over Friday and Saturday at Santa Anita. The
weather forecast is outstanding (sunny and mid-70s), and there is no better
backdrop in Thoroughbred racing than the San Gabriel Mountains. Enjoy the weekend!