THOROUGHBRED BEAT
NOVEMBER 5, 2009
Breeders’ Cup Longshot Edition
by James Scully
Here are six longshots in the Breeders’ Cup that I will be looking to
incorporate into my betting action this weekend:
Friday
Juvenile Fillies Turf: There is little buzz surrounding HATHEER (Storm Cat), but the Kiaran
McLaughlin-trained filly has been favored in all three starts (3-5 when she
easily broke her maiden at Saratoga) and was unfortunate to have the Jessamine
S. come off the turf last time at Keeneland. If that race stays on the lawn and
she wins as expected, the daughter of 2002 champion turf mare Golden Apples
(Ire) would be one of the favorites on the morning line here. Instead, Hatheer is
listed at 10-1 with Alan Garcia.
Filly & Mare Turf (G1): RUTHERIENNE (Pulpit) is the early 8-1 co-fifth choice
and looks very sneaky in this spot. After dropping her
final six outings in 2008, the five-year-old mare has returned to form for
Christophe Clement, registering BRIS Late Pace ratings of 113-116-109 in her
last three starts, and she looks capable of handling the 10-furlong trip over the
firm turf in Southern California. An awesome winner of the 2007 Del Mar Oaks
(G1) at 1 1/8 miles, Rutherienne could come flying in the stretch beneath
Garcia.
Ladies’ Classic (G1): Bill Mott excels with fillies and mares, recording a 6-2-0-1
mark in the Ladies’ Classic, and he’s got a dangerous longshot this year in MUSHKA
(Empire Maker). The four-year-old filly will enter the race on the
upswing, posting a convincing victory in the Glens Falls H. (G3) prior to her win
via disqualification in the Spinster S. (G1) last out, and I loved that Mott blew
her out three furlongs on Tuesday in preparation. Mushka is good on turf, but
she’s better on synthetics (two-for-two). She appears to be peaking and is an
enticing 12-1 on the morning line with Kent Desormeaux.
Saturday
Turf Sprint: GET FUNKY (Straight Man) was the 9-2 second choice in the
2008 inaugural edition, but the Grade 2 winner drew a terrible post (13) and
never got untracked down the hill. He got very good over the summer last year
and was possibly past his peak heading into the Breeders’ Cup, but the
six-year-old appears headed in a positive direction this season for John Sadler,
who has used a couple of route races in preparation. Get Funky wasn’t much of a
factor in those starts, but turned in his best performance of 2009 in the
Morvich H. (G3) last time, rallying well for runner-up honors, and signaled his
readiness with a six-furlong bullet work in 1:10 3/5 last Saturday. With a good
post (5) and 20-1 odds on the morning line, he’s one to consider for at least
part under Rafael Bejarano.
Juvenile (G1): Experience on the Pro-Ride proved to be an edge in last year’s juvenile events
at Santa Anita, and the winner of the October 10 Norfolk S. (G1) at Santa Anita
will probably head to the post as a solid favorite in the Juvenile. However, I give
Norfolk runner-up PULSION (Include) a shot to
run well at huge odds. Breaking from post 11 last time, the Patrick Biancone
colt rallied from far back into a ridiculously slow pace, splitting horses in
the stretch to finish a half-length clear of third, and netted a whopping 110
BRIS Late Pace rating in his first stakes effort. The late runner will get
realistic fractions up front and break from a much better post (6) on Saturday,
and Pulsion is 20-1 on the morning line with regular rider Mike Smith. If he
improves off the Norfolk, the Florida-bred could light up the tote board.
Mile (G1): WHATSTHESCRIPT (Ire) (Royal Applause [GB]) is another
Sadler trainee who figures to be overlooked (15-1 morning line), but this classy
miler is a horse for the course that finished third at 4-1 in the 2008 Mile. I
like the way Sadler has judiciously handled the five-year-old with the Breeders’
Cup in mind, freshening him off a fast-closing third in the July 25 Eddie Read
S.
(G1), and the October 10 Oak Tree Mile (G2) should serve as a solid set-up for
the ferocious closer. Cowboy Cal (Giant’s Causeway) was loose on the lead
setting easy fractions last time, and Whatsthescript offered a good showing
late, making up a lot of ground in the stretch to finish only 1 1/4 lengths back
in third. The pace scenario looks completely different here, with Gladiatorius
(Silic [Fr]), Karelian (Bertrando), Courageous Cat (Storm Cat) and Cowboy Cal
all potentially mixing it up through spirited fractions. After being hindered
with the extreme outermost post in his last two starts, Whatsthescript figures
to be comfortably saving ground from post 2 before firing up the late burners
with Desormeaux.