FAIR GROUNDS NOTEBOOK
DECEMBER 24, 2009
by Frank Cotolo
Normality returned to Fair Grounds last week, with only one surface rated
“good” and four days of “fast” going as the meet continued after the tumultuous
weather of the week before.
While much of the East Coast cancelled racing due to inclement conditions,
the sun was shining on Saturday as the remainder of Louisiana Champions Day
(LCD) races went to post. We gave you one winner, FLASHY WISE CAT (Catastrophe),
who delivered a 4 1/2-length as the favorite. Two other choices, long shots
TAKIN’ THE BULLET (Red Bullet) and HIGH TONED (Zarbyev), each took third.
With the additions of the LCD events, we witnessed 54 races last week. There
were plenty of prices to be found every day, but favorites still managed to
connect at a 30-percent win rate.
SURFACE REPORT
With a remarkable 66 percent of the winners in sprints and routes coming from
off the pace from from December 9-21, speed has not been an advantage on the
main track recently. Superior horses could still win on the front end most days,
but the bias had a strong run on Sunday’s program, the fourth of the five-day
week, when every winner scored with an off-the-pace style.
Over the last two weeks, only nine horses went wire to wire, a 19-percent
clip that one could safely say was done against the bias. Horses close to the
pace won 15 percent of the time. Adding the wire-to-wire wins with the
close-to-the-pace wins (17) still fell far short (31 percent) of the from-behind
runners.
There were only seven turf events last week, five routes and two sprints, and
every winner came from off the pace. Though this is a coincidental circumstance
in its similarity to the action on the main course, it is still a change from a
few weeks back when forwardly-placed horses did well on the lawn. However, no
turf races were held for two weeks due to rainy conditions, so we’ll closely
monitor how it plays in the coming weeks.
TRAINERS
Steve Asmussen and Cody Autry topped the winning conditioners last week with
four victories each. Greg Foley scored with three.
Eight trainers sent out a pair of winners: Albert Stall, Ralph Nicks, Merrill Scherer, Steve Margolis, Bret Calhoun, Morris
Nicks, Bill Mott and Helen Pitts. Ralph Nicks won with a first-time starter.
HORSES TO WATCH
Thursday (12/17)
1ST — BREEZIN INTENSITY (Thunder Breeze) had a longer journey than the
one-mile-and 40-yard distance, having to alter course more than once, and still
got third with what appeared to be some leftover energy.
3RD — RUBICUND (Smoke Glacken) was very fast to the half before being
challenged and giving up at 8-1.
8TH — COUNTRY DAY (Speightstown) is a definite bet back going wire to wire,
part of it in a heavy duel. The three-year-old colt drew off to win by six lengths.
Friday (12/18)
9TH — MICHAEL’S TRIFECTA (Housebuster) came in from Laurel and was strong,
going wire to wire at 12-1 on a closer’s day. Looks like a good bet back.
Saturday (12/19)
1ST — ALCAZAR (De Guerin) made a great debut with speed at 51-1, fighting a
duel as well as the bias.
7TH — SHE’S OUR ANNIE (Medaglia d’Oro) went against the bias and was the only
wire-to-wire winner of the day at any distance.
Sunday (12/20)
1ST — CELEBRATING LOVE (War Chant) almost beat the bias with speed, still
getting second as the deserved choice.
2ND — LADY PLAINVIEW (Western Gentleman) brought unsuspected speed into the
stretch in a six-furlong dash at 90-1.
NOTE — Since this day produced off-the-pace winners in every event, the
following horses should be watched because they showed speed that could have
ordinarily had them winning easily:
RIO NECHES (Mingun)
HIGH KICKING DREAM (Almostashar)
METEOR SHOT (Kimberlite Pipe)
BK’S CLEARANCEISLE (Cryptoclearance)
Monday (12/21)
2ND — KEY PRODUCTION (Run Production) was unusually non-productive racing on
the inside in a race won by a 74-1 shot.