HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
DECEMBER 24, 2009
by Dick Powell
Santa Anita finishes up its opening day card on Saturday with three fantastic
races — two Grade 1 stakes and a maiden special weight that should make a great
Pick 3 to play.
The La Brea S. (G1) will be run as race 8 for three-year-old fillies going
seven furlongs on the main track. At the recently-concluded Oak Tree meet at
Santa Anita, speed did very well going seven furlongs on the Pro-Ride, but last
year’s numbers were pretty even. A dozen fillies have entered and there is the
usual assortment of sprinters, turnbacks and turf-to-synthetic runners.
GABBY’S GOLDEN GAL (Medaglia d’Oro) won the Acorn S. (G1) on dirt going a
mile two starts back and returns to the races off a 175-day layoff for Bob
Baffert. She broke her maiden last February at Santa Anita going six furlongs,
so she can handle synthetics. Mike Smith rides her for the first time which may
be an indicator of how fit she is since Garrett Gomez, who you would think would
ride for Baffert here, takes the mount on Philadeplphia Park shipper AMAZED BY
GRACE (Bowman’s Band).
Amazed by Grace is owned by West Point Thoroughbreds, but this $35,000
yearling purchase has taken an obscure route to a Grade 1. She has raced
exclusively at Philadelphia Park and Charles Town, and has won her last five
races in a row. Trained by the always dangerous Guadalupe Preciado, she has
excellent early speed which Gomez will have to use with eight horses drawn to
her outside. She’s never been farther than six furlongs and has never tried
synthetics, but shows two solid workouts over it here.
Patrick Biancone sends out an interesting runner in ROSE DIAMOND (Ire) (Daylami
[Ire]). Group 3-placed in England, she made her American debut a winning one in
a downhill sprint here on the turf with Joe Talamo aboard. She came back and ran
evenly at Hollywood in a six-furlong turf sprint that had little pace. In the La
Brea, she draws outside and there should be more than enough pace to set her up
for a big, late run. PINKARELLA (Malibu Moon) beat older fillies and mares last
out in fast time and takes a big move up in class for Doug O’Neill.
Race 9 is the Malibu S. (G1) which drew 13 sophomores going seven furlongs on
the main track. Many in here are going from turf-to-synthetic or long-to-short,
and there aren’t many that you would call a true sprinter. SMART BID (Smart
Strike) has a win at the course and distance in the Damascus S. last out in fast
time for Graham Motion. He’ll be making his second start off a long layoff and
could still be improving.
Bob Baffert sends out a pair of contenders in MISREMEMBERED (Candy Ride
[Arg]) and MYTHICAL POWER (Congaree). The former won the Swaps S. (G2) this
summer going nine furlongs and just missed in the Clark H. (G2) last out at
Churchill Downs against a deep field going long. He turns back in distance and
will have to keep from getting shuffled back from post 1. The latter returns off
a 231-day layoff after winning the Lone Star Derby (G3) last out going two turns
and picks up the red-hot Joel Rosario in the irons.
PAPA CLEM (Smart Strike) turns back in distance after winning the Arkansas
Derby (G2) last spring, but he did break his maiden here last year going a mile
in good time and has enough speed to keep up early. CORONET OF A BARON (Pure
Prize) was a good two-year-old when just missing in the Del Mar Futurity (G1).
He had a good win here two races back then lost all chance last out when he
broke slow from post 1 at today’s distance.
The finale on the Santa Anita opening day card is a maiden special weight
going 6 1/2 furlongs with eight of the eleven entrants being first time
starters. What makes this race so tough is all three runners with race
experience ran well enough to win here. ZIGGY’S STARDUST (Maria’s Mon) rallied
for fourth after being bumped at the start. NEXTDOORNEIGHBOR (Lido Palace [Chi])
was a good second going seven furlongs first time out and has trained well since
then. And LEOTHELION (Lion Heart) missed by a length in his career debut going
six furlongs for Mike Puype, who shows a flat-bet profit and a 22 percent strike
rate with his second time starters.
None of the eight firsters can be dismissed either as they all have either
pedigree or trainer angles to support their chances. Bob Baffert sends out
CONCORD POINT (Tapit) off a series of strong workouts here. Baffert’s win
percentage with firsters has risen to 18 percent and Tapit can produce winning
debut runners.
VICTORY WITH HONOR (Tiznow) hasn’t been working very fast for Eoin Harty, but
he has a pedigree that suggests first-out success being by a stakes-winning dam
plus he gets Garrett Gomez. Humberto Ascanio sends out AD INFINITUM (Storm Cat)
for Juddmonte off a steady diet of five-furlong works and a half-mile tightener
on Sunday. His dam is ETOILE MONTANTE (Miswaki) who beat males in the Prix de la
Foret (Fr-G1) and then came over here and won two graded stakes for Bobby
Frankel on the turf.
BIG MAN HAS A SIGN (Petionville) could be a toss since his trainer/pedigree
angle with firsters is weak, but his dam is a three-quarter sister to Indian
Charlie. SCREAMING DESTINY (Street Cry [Ire]) is a half-brother to two stakes
winners. LET GO INDIAN (Indian Charlie) has a speedy pedigree, and while trainer
Dan Hendricks only wins with 9 percent of his firsters, he shows a flat-bet
profit with them.
MIKEYMIKE (Grand Reward) is another firster from Canani that might be worth
playing next time. IMPERIAL PRIDE (Limehouse) is by a sire that produced 16
percent first-out winners in his first crop but trainer Bob Hess Jr. only wins
with 6 percent of them.
My strategy for the late Pick 3 on Saturday at Santa Anita will be to spread
out just enough to include contenders at a price. In race 8, I’ll go with
Gabby’s Golden Gal, Amazed by Grace and Pinkarella. In race nine, I’ll spread
out with Smart Bid, Misremembered, Mythical Power and Cornonet of a Baron. Papa
Clem will probably be the favorite and we’ll try to beat him. In the finale,
Leothelion should improve the most with a race under his belt and a better post
and I have a sneaking suspicion that Canani has Big Man Has a Sign cranked up
for a big effort.