HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
DECEMBER 18, 2009
by Dick Powell
Transparency is a word that is very popular these days. Whether in politics
or Wall Street, we say we want more information made available to us.
Unfortunately, American horseplayers are still kept in the dark as compared to
their international counterparts.
Last week at Sha Tin Racecourse in Hong Kong, there were four lucrative Group
1 stakes scheduled on the turf. The biggest of the four, the Hong Kong Cup
(HK-G1), attracted a strong field of international horses going 2,000 meters for
approximately $2.6 million.
VISION D’ETAT (Chichicastenango) should have been one of the favorites for
the Cup based on his two Group 1 wins this year at similar distances. However,
in the days leading up to the Cup, it was announced by the vets from the Hong
Kong Jockey Club that he had a swelling in his hind leg and was questionable to
start.
On the morning of the race, Vision D’Etat worked to the satisfaction of the
vets and was pronounced fit to race. All of this took place publicly and bettors
were continually informed by the Hong Kong Jockey Club. When I was in Australia
last year, it was announced at the track that the favorite for the Victoria
Derby (Aus-G1), WHOBEGOTYOU (Street Cry [Ire]), suffered minor lacerations from
an incident that occurred while shipping to the track that morning. It wasn’t
something that you needed inside information to know about or have to depend on
the media to uncover it — it was announced by the track to all as it should be.
Armed with the information that Vision D’Etat had suffered a minor setback
less than 48 hours before the race, most of the Hong Kong punters went the other
way and he went off at odds of 7-1. This was about twice what he should have
been and I am sure there were many Hong Kong punters who wished they hadn’t
heard the news about his hind leg injury when he stormed home the winner by a
convincing three parts of a length in 2:01.86.
So did the information we all say we want and need actually help? The key was
knowing how strict the stewards and vets are at the Hong Kong Jockey Club. If
they pronounced Vison D’Etat was fit enough to compete, that should have been
good enough to calm any fears that he would not be 100 percent.
I know many of my turf-writing brethren want every imaginable piece of
information. I dare any of them to explain how knowing a horse’s veterinary
history is going to help you handicap. Knowing which vet is attending to a horse
still won’t help you know which specialist came in to treat a specific ailment
that the horse is suffering from. If this information was so useful, wouldn’t
you think that the grooms at the track would all be driving luxury cars?
One piece of information that I find very helpful is a horse’s weight. Hong
Kong provides the weight of each horse for each race and it gives you the
ability to make judgments on how fit a horse might be. Many of the horses racing
in Hong Kong are older geldings so you want to know what weight a horse was when
he ran his best races. With horses coming off a long layoff, it helps to know if
a horse is heavy in his first race back and that with a race under his belt he
might be at his optimum weight. To my knowledge they do not have juvenile races
there, but for circuits that do it would show how horses physically mature from
ages two to three and from three to four.
Like most international racing jurisdictions, Hong Kong provides detailed
steward’s reports after the race. One interesting piece of information that is
provided is the level of inquiry the stewards took regarding the jockey’s race.
They have three levels of inquiry: the lowest is a warning, the next is a
reprimand and the worst is a severe reprimand which results in a suspension. In
our races, the only information that we are provided is only when they take
action against a rider.
It all works for them since Sunday’s races at Sha Tin did about $130 million
in handle and attracted more than 56,000 fans.
**********
The Hollywood Futurity (G1) will be run at Hollywood Park on Saturday at 1
1/16 miles on the Cushion Track. Since this year’s Hollywood fall meet has
begun, there have been 38 races run at this distance. Unlike the previous meet
at Oak Tree at Santa Anita where closers dominated two-turn races, speed has
dominated at Hollywood, with 34 percent of the races being won gate-to-wire and
a speed bias of 66 percent.
Armed with this information, you might want to take a different look at this
year’s Futurity, which figures to be dominated in the wagering by Bob Baffert’s
LOOKIN AT LUCKY (Smart Strike). Winner of his first four starts, including the
Del Mar Futurity (G1) and the Norfolk S. (G1), he just missed in the Breeders’
Cup Juvenile (G1) when he broke from post 13.
On Saturday, Lookin at Lucky draws the rail but his running style should be
compromised by the severe speed bias at Hollywood. He’s been training bullets
since the Breeders’ Cup but it’s been a long season and at a short price he
appears vulnerable.
The horse that I will key in my wagering is THE PROGRAM (Harlan’s Holiday).
Also trained by Baffert, he woke up in his third start in his two-turn debut
which he won gate-to-wire at Santa Anita in good time. Remember, Oak Tree
two-turn races were dominated by closers so The Program won against the bias. He
came back at Hollywood Park with a good second at Saturday’s distance in good
time.
So with the favorite having the wrong running style and with my horse winning
against the bias as well as getting a race over the track, I think The Program
has a big shot at a price to win the Futurity.