HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
DECEMBER 4, 2009
by Dick Powell
As bad as I did last Saturday betting on Churchill’s all-juvenile racecard,
it was still a great day of racing and for scouting future opportunities.
In the 2ND race, the speedy BROWN EYED BABY (Mineshaft) was let go at 7-2
odds and she was a convincing winner for Calvin Borel. Insanely fast, she broke
her maiden going five furlongs back on May 25 on a sloppy track but then showed
little when moved up in class in the Debutante S. (G3). Off a 154-day layoff
and training bullets for Cecil Borel, she gunned to the front with little urging
from Calvin and strode home beautifully. Being sired by Mineshaft (A.P. Indy),
it will be interesting if she can relax early and go longer. She certainly has a
world of running ability.
Race 3 was for juvenile first-level allowance fillies going a mile and
the public made Pick and Pray (Songandaprayer) the 11-10 favorite off a
nine-length win here in her first dirt start. Unfortunately, she drew post
1 and was hard used to keep from getting shuffled back by the outside speed.
She was under heavy pressure through a first half in :46.47 and began to weaken.
Borel had KATY NOW (Tiznow) stalking on the outside in third place and
took over in the stretch with ease. She drew off to a four-length win in the
good time of 1:36.26 with a last furlong in :12.81. With Tiznow (Cee’s Tizzy)
becoming one of the best sources of main track stamina, Katy Now looks to have
an unlimited future for trainer Ian Wilkes.
Tom Amoss wins with 14 percent of his first-time starters and sent out one to win
race 4 when CINCO EMAYO (Broken Vow) overcame traffic going into the far turn
to get up in time and break his maiden. Runner-up Bialy (Distorted
Humor) won’t be a maiden for much longer.
Race 5 was for first-level allowance juvenile males going six furlongs and
Wesley Ward continued his great season with the babies when GREAT ATTACK
(Greatness) went gate to wire to win by three lengths in 1:09.53. It was right
on your BRIS Ultimate Past Performances that Ward and E.T. Baird were three-for-seven
combined going into the race, and now they are four for eight.
Race 6 was for juvenile males on the turf — the Grand Canyon H.
going 1 1/16 miles. LOST APTITUDE (Aptitude) had an allowance win over the course at
the same distance in his last start and was made the 2-1 favorite. Breaking from
the rail with Jon Court, he took over at the start and never looked back,
winning by 5 1/4 lengths in the good time of 1:42.69. Thunder Perfect (Pleasantly
Perfect) rallied from far back to finish an unthreatening second.
Race 7 was for juvenile males going 1 1/16 miles on the main track. Nick
Zito has had a lot of success with sons of Mineshaft going long and he sent out
second-time-starter FLY DOWN (Mineshaft) to rally from far back and win going
away as the tepid 23-10 favorite. His final time of 1:45.57 was more
professional than inspirational, but it was only his second career start and
first going two turns.
Roman Ruler (Fusaichi Pegasus) has sired an amazing 28 winners in his first
crop to race. MAXIMUS RULER (Roman Ruler) was dismissed at 52-1 odds in his
career debut two weeks before at Churchill when he rallied furiously to miss by a
head going seven furlongs. Stretching out to a mile here for Clark Hanna, he
stalked a fast pace, split horses around the far turn and held on for a one-length
victory in the good time of 1:35.94. He’s done all his racing and training at
Churchill, so it will be interesting to see how he handles the next part of his
career, but he was very impressive Saturday.
The Golden Rod S. (G2) will forever be remembered as the race that
propelled Rachel Alexandra (Medaglia d’Oro) to stardom. Don’t know if we saw
anything comparable on Saturday, but SASSY IMAGE (Broken Vow) is a nice juvenile filly.
Winner of the Pocahontas S. (G3) last out here going a mile, she had no
trouble getting two turns here as the 6-5 favorite. Her final time of 1:44.51
does not compare favorably with Katy Now, so it’s unlikely we saw another budding
superstar.
That was not the case in the Kentucky Jockey Club S. (G2), where we did
see a budding superstar. SUPER SAVER (Maria’s Mon) broke his maiden second time
out at Belmont over a sloppy track going a mile by seven lengths. He held on
gamely when moving up in class in the Champagne S. (G1), finishing fourth by two
lengths after setting a very
fast pace, and was trying two turns for the first time here.
With Borel in the irons for the first time, he went to the front and
covered the first quarter in :23.33. That might not seem slow, but it was much
slower than any of his first three starts. A second quarter in :23.42 left him
two lengths in front and Borel was sitting chilly. On the far turn, Activity
Report (Bernstein) and Worldly (A.P. Indy) challenged briefly before being
repulsed and Super Saver opened a clear lead in the homestretch.
The only horse to make any kind of late move was William’s Kitten (Kitten’s
Joy), who rallied from dead last to move into second, but he proved no threat as
Super Saver romped to a five-length victory. The winner’s final time of 1:42.83 was
excellent as was his BRIS Speed Rating of 100.
Even though he has been a front-runner in all of his starts this year, Super
Saver has
a pedigree that suggests longer distances should be no problem. By Maria’s Mon
(Wavering Monarch), who has already sired a Kentucky Derby (G1) winner, the
juvenile is out
of a A.P. Indy mare that is a full sister to three graded stakes
winners going a mile or more and the dam of Bluegrass Cat (Storm Cat), who won
the Haskell Invitational (G1) at three, the Remsen S. (G2) at two and was
runner-up in the 2006 Derby.
Speaking of the Remsen, it was run about two hours earlier at Aqueduct and
despite the winner coming home almost five lengths in front, it did not look
like it will be a vintage renewal. BUDDY’S SAINT (Saint Liam) won the Nashua
S. (G3) by 12 lengths in fast time while earning a BRIS Speed Rating of 105 in
his previous start.
Sent off here as the 4-5 favorite, he relaxed off a modest pace of :24.01 and
:48.18 and bided his time for Jose Lezcano.
The lead was his anytime he wanted it and Lezcano pressed the button midway
around the far turn. Buddy’s Saint took over effortlessly and turned for home with a clear
lead. Lezcano kept his mind on business throughout the lane and despite looking
like he was losing interest, the colt won by 4 3/4 lengths. His final time of
1:52.95 was about average and his BRIS Speed Rating was only 91. It looked like
he definitely bounced off his last big effort, but still proved good enough to beat a
modest field.
More impressive than Buddy’s Saint was TIZAHIT (Tiznow), winner of the
Demoiselle S. (G2) for juvenile fillies. A distant fourth in the Tempted
S. (G3) last out going a mile, she came back as the third choice in the
wagering while ridden for the first time by Edgar Prado. What I liked about her
race was that she able to relax while sitting off a slow pace and then accelerate when asked. Her last furlong was
:12.61, and she looks like she will
have no trouble getting the distance of next year’s classics.