Native Diver J

AMERICAN
GRADED STAKES PREVIEWS

LAVA MAN (Slew City Slew) will be the center of attention in Saturday’s
$100,000 Native Diver H. (G3), and we’d love to see the eight-year-old gelding
make a successful return following a 16-month layoff. Retired due to ankle
problems, the Southern California standout underwent surgery and responded
favorably to stem cell and bone marrow injections, which led to a resumption of
serious training in September, but we’ve still got to evaluate this race from a
handicapping perspective. Nine furlongs is a tough distance for his return, and
we’ll play the spoiler with NEKO BAY (Giant’s Causeway).

Lightly raced earlier in his career, Neko Bay will make his third start off
the layoff for the red-hot John Shirreffs, who saddled Zardana (Brz) (Crimson
Tide) to an upset victory in the Bayakoa H. (G2) last Saturday. The six-year-old
horse returned from a near 10-month layoff with a sharp allowance score at Oak
Tree, netting a 101 BRIS Speed and 118 BRIS Late Pace rating for the one-length
decision, and followed it with a respectable sixth in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt
Mile (G1), garnering a third consecutive century-topping Late Pace number in the
process. The Native Diver should set up well for the only confirmed late runner
in the field, and Neko Bay appears set for a career-best performance under Mike
Smith.

TRES BORRACHOS (Ecton Park) loves the Cushion Track, winning the 2008 Swaps
and finishing a good second to Rail Trip (Jump Start) in this year’s Hollywood
Gold Cup (G1), and we like his tightener for this event, a close third in a 1
1/8-mile turf allowance on November 19. That should set him up for a top showing
here, and the four-year-old gelding is the potential lone speed with Victor
Espinoza. He’s a serious threat to lead all the way.

Lava Man was the best older horse in Southern California from 2005-07.
Trainer Doug O’Neill wouldn’t bring him back if he didn’t believe in the classy
old timer, but nobody knows how the California-bred will respond when the gates
open. We like his recent work tab, which includes a pair of bullet moves at six
furlongs, and realize that he doesn’t need to be 100 percent to win here, but
there are too many questions for us to support him for the win at low odds. It’s
fitting that his return will come at Hollywood — it’s a city of dreams and some
of Lava Man’s biggest victories occurred over the track — and we’ll cheer
loudly if he comes back a winner.

HIGH COURT DRAMA (Ire) (Theatrical [Ire]) steps up to stakes company off an
encouraging win over turf allowance/optional claiming rivals in his North
American debut. Following limited success in Ireland, the four-year-old showed
much more under the care of O’Neill, earning commendable BRIS Speed and Pace
numbers, and the four-year-old is a two-time winner over all-weather tracks. The
stalker is a potential exotics player beneath new rider Michael Baze.

Grade 1 winner SQUARE EDDIE (Smart Strike) was sidelined by shin problems
earlier this year and returned to the races this fall with a pair of
disappointing performances against top-class rivals. We’d give him a chance to
run better at a mile or 8 1/2 furlongs in his third start off a layoff, but
can’t recommend him at this trip. MAST TRACK (Mizzen Mast) got going during the summer
of 2008 for Bobby Frankel, winning the Hollywood Gold Cup and recording a close
third in the Pacific Classic (G1), but the five-year-old has failed to run back
to that form this season. He could add to the pace from the rail and hold for a
minor award, but we won’t be surprised to see him check out when the serious
running starts.