THOROUGHBRED BEAT
JANUARY 8, 2009
by James Scully
Some observations for the New Year:
Rachel Show: RACHEL ALEXANDRA (Medaglia d’Oro) hasn’t returned to serious training yet, but
speculation about her four-year-old season will pick up at the
Eclipse Awards on January 18 when she receives, in all likelihood, Horse of
the Year honors. The focus then shifts to the possibilities ahead, with the Breeders’ Cup
Classic (G1) in early November as the main goal, and her 2010 campaign promises to be quite a
production if she remains healthy.
Rachel Alexandra can run against males or females, at any venue with a dirt
oval, and her connections probably won’t take a conservative approach like the
one employed by Zenyatta, who started only four times last year prior to the
Breeders’ Cup. Owners Jess Jackson and Harold McCormick, along with trainer
Steve Asmussen and assistant Scott Blasi, will likely contemplate every option
as they plot Rachel Alexandra’s journey on a race-by-race basis. We witnessed
the hoopla surrounding the process at the end of her three-year-old season last
summer.
Following her six-length dismissal of Belmont (G1) winner
(and probable three-year-old champion) Summer Bird (Birdstone) in the Haskell
Invitational (G1) on August 2, five races emerged in the following days as
options for her next start: Alabama (G1), Travers (G1), Personal Ensign
(G1), Woodward (G1)
and Pennsylvania Derby (G2). The first four appeared viable, but the
$1 million Pennsylvania Derby at Philadelphia Park? However, Jackson listed it
as a possible destination for the seemingly unstoppable filly, and the racing world
was forced to wait a
couple of weeks, debating possible targets along the way, for the press conference to announce her next start.
It will be more of the same in 2010, but the sideshow doesn’t detract from
the main event. Most Thoroughbred racing fans have never witnessed a
three-year-old filly of Rachel Alexandra’s caliber, and it will be fascinating
to see whether she raises the ceiling higher this year.
Her BRIS Speed ratings are exceptional so far, on par with many Horse of the
Year winners of the decade, with her best figure (116) coming in the
Haskell.
| Horse | Best Speed | |
| Rachel Alexandra | 116 | |
| Curlin | 121 | |
| Invasor (Arg) | 118 | |
| Saint Liam | 119 | |
| Ghostzapper | 119 | |
| Mineshaft | 116 | |
| Azeri | 111 | |
| Point Given | 114 | |
| Tiznow | 113 |
What can we expect from her in 2010? If she’s better at four (as many of us
are expecting), Rachel Alexandra will set new standards. Her BRIS Speed ratings
should be in the 120+ range, and those numbers will serve as another testament to her
greatness.
Get ready for the drama surrounding the “Rachel Show” in 2010. Lets hope it
runs all season because Thoroughbred racing is fortunate to have such terrific
programming.
Derby Watch: Winter racing is in full swing at Gulfstream Park, Santa
Anita and Fair Grounds, with Oaklawn Park set to join the mix next week, and
this is the time of year to keep your eye on the maiden and allowance
ranks for any interesting three-year-olds. It’s possible that we haven’t even seen
the Kentucky Derby (G1) winner yet (an unraced juvenile will likely
break through one of these years), but that’s not the purpose of this column.
Here are six Derby prospects from last season:
LOOKIN AT LUCKY (Smart Strike) — Winner of the CashCall Futurity (G1), Norfolk (G1), Del
Mar Futurity (G1) and Best Pal (G2), the nation’s best two-year-old suffered his
only setback, a head second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), following a wide
and troubled trip from post 13. Lookin at Lucky doesn’t win by large margins,
but always appears to have more in reserve while netting BRIS Late Pace ratings
as high as 121. He’s raced strictly on synthetics, but the bay colt is bred to
excel on the main track at 10 furlongs and trainer Bob Baffert plans to
prep him over a conventional track to prepare for the
footing, as well as the kickback, in the Kentucky Derby. Lookin at Lucky is the
early favorite.
JACKSON BEND (Hear No Evil) — Florida-bred swept the Florida Stallion
Stakes series, winning the six-furlong Dr. Fager, seven-furlong Affirmed and 1
1/16-mile In Reality in authoritative fashion, and was sold and transferred to
Nick Zito following those scintillating performances. His BRIS Speed and Late
Pace numbers are outstanding, and the chestnut colt was flattered when D’ Funnybone (D’wildcat), who he defeated last summer, romped in the Saratoga
Special (G2) and Futurity S. (G2) in his subsequent starts. Jackson Bend owns a
solid pedigree for longer distances (dam is by Preakness [G1] and Belmont winner
Tabasco Cat) and the right connections to develop into top Derby contender. He’s
recorded a couple of fast works in preparation for his three-year-old bow and
looks like a potential star in South Florida this winter/spring.
BUDDY’S SAINT (Saint Liam) — From the lone, abbreviated crop of the
ill-fated Saint Liam, Buddy’s Saint has utilized an impressive turn of foot to
finish first in all three starts
(disqualified from career debut). He officially broke his maiden with a
12-length runaway in the Nashua S. (G2), registering a 105 BRIS Speed rating, and
followed with a professional, 4 3/4-length score in the Remsen S. (G2) that
stamped him as a top Derby prospect for Bruce Levine. His trainer has never had
a Derby starter, but first-timers Chip Woolley (Mine That Bird), Richard
Dutrow (Big Brown), Michael Matz (Barbaro) and John Servis (Smarty Jones) all
scored last decade.
SUPER SAVER (Maria’s Mon) — He came on strong the end of his juvenile
season, recording a sharp five-length score in the Kentucky Jockey Club S. (G2),
and the front runner has the pedigree to relish 1 1/4 miles at Churchill
Downs. Love the fact that he earned a 100 BRIS Speed rating at two, but hope his
connections don’t take a conservative approach with only two preps for the
lightly-raced colt. Trainer Todd Pletcher, who is still seeking
his first Derby winner, has a prime candidate in Super
Saver.
DISCREETLY MINE (Mineshaft) — A 6 1/4-length maiden scorer at Saratoga,
Stanley Hough colt concluded last year with runner-up finishes in the Futurity
and Champagne (G1). Out of Alabama (G1) winner Pretty Discreet and a
half-brother to to Grade 1-winning millionaire Discreet Cat, Discreetly Mine
rates an A in the pedigree department, and the bay colt has shown glimpses
of his overwhelming potential. He’s eligible
to take giant strides forward this year.
TAKE CONTROL (A.P. Indy) — Maiden winner is still a darkhorse, but he will
add a lot to the Derby chase if he develops into a legitimate contender. The
first foal out of Horse of the Year Azeri, the chestnut colt rated off a slow
pace and exhibited signs of greenness in the stretch when making his career
debut in a two-turn maiden special weight event at Santa Anita on December 30,
but he got the job done in commendable fashion, striding out powerfully late to record a
1 1/2-length decision. Take Control’s career is off to a very encouraging start,
and he’s got three-time Derby winner Baffert in his corner.
Oaks Watch: The Kentucky Oaks (G1) doesn’t match the Derby in terms of
importance, but it’s still the premiere event for three-year-old fillies
in North America. Here are my top five prospects:
DEVIL MAY CARE (Malibu Moon) — Draw a line through her last-place finish in
the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) and focus upon her first two career
starts. After breaking slowly in her debut, the bay miss rapidly advanced to the
front and drew off smartly for a 4 3/4-length decision in the slop at Saratoga.
She jumped to stakes company, stretching out to a mile in the Frizette (G1), and
missed the break again with a stumbling start at Belmont Park, but Devil May
Care recovered and rallied smartly from just off the pace to win by a head that
afternoon, notching a stellar 100 BRIS Speed rating. The bay miss is capable of
bigger and better things on the dirt this year for Pletcher. Considering how
poorly her half-brother, multiple Grade 2-winning millionaire Regal Ransom
(Distorted Humor), ran on synthetics at two in the Norfolk, it was no surprise
to see Devil May Care throw in a clunker on Pro-Ride.
BLIND LUCK (Pollard’s Vision) — She’s carved her reputation on synthetics,
winning the Hollywood Starlet (G1) and Oak Leaf (G1) and placing in the Juvenile
Fillies and Darley Debutante (G1), but the formidable late runner is experienced on
dirt, winning her first start by 13 1/4 lengths at Calder. Jerry Hollendorfer,
who saddled Lite Light to a 10-length score in the 1991 Oaks, will look to
return to the winner’s circle with Blind Luck, who has earned BRIS Late Pace
ratings as high as 114.
SHE BE WILD (Offlee Wild) — Probable champion two-year-old filly has raced
exclusively on synthetics for Wayne Catalano, but the stalker will be given
every opportunity to excel on dirt in Florida this winter. After capturing her
first three career starts by daylight, she just missed when stretching out to
two turns in the Alcibiades (G1) and then closed determinedly to post a
three-quarter length victory in the Juvenile Fillies, registering a better BRIS
Speed rating (94) than the Juvenile winner (93) a day later. She Be Wild is a
threat to transfer her top-class form to any surface.
SASSY IMAGE (Broken Vow) — Dale Romans filly has won her last three starts
at Churchill Downs in style, cruising to a 3 3/4-length tally in the Golden Rod
(G2) most recently, and the two-time graded winner merits serious respect given
her affinity for the track. Her BRIS Speed ratings are a little low, but the
chestnut can improve significantly in that area and nine furlongs appears well
within the scope of the stalker.
QUIET TEMPER (Quiet American) — Another Oaks prospect in the Romans stable,
Quiet Temper opened her career with three consecutive runner-up finishes in key
maiden special weight events. She convincingly broke her maiden in the Delta
Princess (G3), drawing clear by 7 3/4 lengths, and has now won two straight,
easily capturing a one-mile-and-40-yards allowance/optional claiming event at
Fair Grounds on January 3. Her BRIS numbers are first-rate, and Quiet Temper
looks like a major factor in the sophomore filly ranks at Fair Grounds.
Older horses: SUMMER BIRD will start the year on the sidelines in Hot
Springs, Arkansas, recovering from recent surgery, but he’s expected to be back in serious training by this summer. If he
returns at full strength, the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) and Travers (G1) winner
will add plenty to an older horse division that’s lost its luster in the past few
years.
How bad was it in 2009? Vosburgh (G1) and Carter (G1) winner Kodiak Kowboy
(Posse), an outstanding sprinter who would want no part of two turns except in a
trailer, is an Eclipse Award finalist for champion older horse due to his
victory in the Cigar Mile (G1). Another finalist, Gio Ponti (Tale of the Cat),
never won on the main track. Voters couldn’t find any suitable alternatives in a
year where Dry Martini (Slew Gin Fizz), Gitano Hernando (GB) (Hernando [Fr]) and
Runforthedoe (Brz) (Our Emblem) all compiled major victories.
The division should receive a much-needed infusion of talent from
newly-turned four-year-olds like Quality Road (Elusive Quality), Regal Ransom,
Blame (Arch), Misremembered (Candy Ride [Arg]), Midshipman (Unbridled’s Song),
Musket Man (Yonaguska), Kensei (Mr. Greeley), Papa Clem (Smart Strike), General
Quarters (Sky Mesa), Friesan Fire (A.P. Indy), Chocolate Candy (Candy Ride
[Arg]), Hold Me Back (Giant’s Causeway) and Mine That Bird (Birdstone), so
the outlook is much better for 2010.