BELMONT REPORT
MAY 27, 2010
by James Scully
The Belmont S. (G1) loses some appeal when a Triple Crown isn’t on the line.
Or when there isn’t a Kentucky Derby (G1) or Preakness S. (G1) winner in the post
parade. People will tune in to watch an exciting three-year-old like A.P. Indy
or Rags to Riches make their Triple Crown debut in the final leg, but the 2010
edition won’t feature a compelling storyline.
It’s a field light on credentials, with nary a multiple stakes winner among
the 10 probables, but the possibility remains that we could see an up-and-coming
star in the three-year-old ranks. Last year’s race served as a catalyst for
Summer Bird (Birdstone), who garnered his first stakes victory in the 1 1/2-mile
classic and went on to add the Travers S. (G1) and Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) to his
ledger en route to championship honors. We can be optimistic in the same vein
for horses like DROSSELMEYER (Distorted Humor), FIRST DUDE (Stephen Got Even),
FLY DOWN (Mineshaft), GAME ON DUDE (Awesome Again) and ICE BOX (Pulpit) this
year.
However, recent history won’t be on the side of the victor; seven of the last
10 Belmont winners never captured another stakes race.
Fly Down and Game on Dude will be the only starters with a victory in their
last start, winning the Dwyer S. (G2) and Lone Star Derby (G3), respectively.
The Bob Baffert-trained Game on Dude rolled by 4 1/2 lengths on May 8 at Lone
Star Park, but he didn’t beat much while registering a career-best 98 BRIS Speed
rating. The dark bay colt was unplaced in two previous attempts versus graded
rivals.
Fly Down looks much more intriguing. After finishing third last October in
his career debut at Belmont Park, the chestnut colt stamped himself as a
two-year-old to watch when breaking his maiden next out at Churchill Downs in
his two-turn debut. The chestnut wasn’t seen again until February 21, returning
to the races in one of the toughest allowance races at Gulfstream Park this
season, where he gamely ran down First Dude to win by a head. The 1 1/8-mile
test exacted a severe toll on the top two finishers, who failed to fire next out
in their stakes bows, but both colts have rebounded and will enter the Belmont
on the upswing.
A six-length romper in the May 8 Dwyer, Fly Down netted a 101 BRIS Speed
rating last time and will be the only Belmont contestant with a victory over the
expansive 1 1/2-mile racing oval that is known affectionately as “Big Sandy.”
And he’s got the Belmont king, Nick Zito, in his corner; the Hall of Fame
trainer is pursuing his third Belmont crown in the last seven years.
Maiden winner First Dude, who posted two superb five-furlong bullet works in
advance of the Preakness for Dale Romans, just missed to Lookin at Lucky (Smart
Strike) after establishing wicked early fractions of :22 4/5 and :46 2/5 at
Pimlico. The pace scenario will be much different in the Belmont, which can play
very kindly to front runners capable of saving something for the final furlongs.
And the improving First Dude, who will bring the top last-race BRIS Speed rating
of 103 into the Belmont, is bred to relish the 12-furlong trip.
I can’t get too excited about the other probables. Florida Derby (G1)
upsetter Ice Box will be a top draw off his runner-up finish in the Kentucky
Derby, but he’s a plodder who could leave himself too much to do behind an
expected slow pace. It’s interesting to see that he’s never been less than 6-1
in seven of eight career starts, the lone exception being a maiden tally at
the Meadowlands in late October. In order to get an initial win, Zito shipped him
from Belmont Park to New Jersey to race on a cold fall evening. Derby
fourth-placer MAKE MUSIC FOR ME (Bernstein) is a deep closer without experience
on a fast track.
Drosselmeyer, who seemed destined for the Kentucky Derby field when opening
his three-year-old season with an impressive allowance win, has drained money
from supporters like a sieve with failures in the Dwyer, Louisiana Derby
(G2) and Risen Star S. (G2). Don’t be surprised to see him head to the turf for
Bill Mott if he falters again in the Belmont. STATELY VICTOR (Ghostzapper), who
conjured up memories of the illogical Dominican with his Blue Grass S. (G1)
shocker, is unplaced in three dirt starts at two turns and STAY PUT (Broken Vow)
doesn’t appear fast enough with a 94 BRIS Speed rating in all four starts this
season. Longshots UPTOWNCHARLYBROWN (Limehouse) and SPANGLED STAR (Distorted
Humor) wouldn’t make sense, but it is the Belmont.
Inscrutable outcomes are part of recent Belmont history, namely Da’ Tara
(Tiznow)
(2008), Sarava (2002) and Commendable (2000). These undistinguished performers
weren’t good enough to win a graded stakes race before their massive upsets and,
not surprisingly, were too slow to ever win again, producing a combined
zero-for-23 mark. But I won’t be expecting the unexpected when I’m playing the
race.
I’ll give my final analysis and selections next week.