Kentucky Derby 136 J

AMERICAN
GRADED STAKES PREVIEWS

A full field of 20 three-year-olds will travel 1 1/4-miles in the most
prestigious event for sophomores, the $2 million Kentucky Derby (G1) at
Churchill Downs. This particular field presents a huge challenge to handicappers
as there is not much separation between most of this field, not to mention the
horses that have run primarily on turf and/or synthetic ovals. We’ll look to a
pair of Hall of Fame conditioners to challenge for the win in this one.

We think that the Bob Baffert-trained CONVEYANCE (Indian Charlie) is the
fleetest horse in the field and could crush the dreams of many in here who like
to be on or just off the early tempo beneath Martin Garcia. A winner of his
first four starts, the swift sophomore suffered his first defeat in the Sunland
Park Derby (G3) last out when trying to get nine panels. While the added ground
will not be easy for him to negotiate, his conditioner did admit he had not
trained him hard enough prior to his last, and we trust that the silver-haired Hall of Famer will have this one cranked up from the opening bell. If Conveyance thrives
over the expected wet oval and establishes a sensible early tempo, we like his
chances to lead all the way.

DUBLIN (Afleet Alex) gives trainer D. Wayne Lukas his biggest chance to pick
up his fifth Derby winner in some time, and we think the long-striding
Kentucky-bred could be the one with some luck. Winner of the Hopeful S. (G1)
at two, the improving chestnut has had a productive if unspectacular campaign to
date, showing a nice turn of foot in placing in a trio of graded events in
Arkansas. We’re not thrilled how the three-year-old performed in his lone start
here when seventh in the Iroquois S. (G3), but his recent drills
have been useful and he should be peaking for this one. Terry Thompson retains
the mount atop the chestnut.

LOOKIN AT LUCKY (Smart Strike), the likely favorite when the gate opens,
exits a troubled third in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) but doesn’t lose any respect
from us even though he got buried on the rail for this race. The
champion showed his versatility when getting up late in the Rebel S. (G2) in his
sophomore debut and is as battle-tested as any in the field. We’re not positive
that the colt wants 1 1/4 miles, and we’d have preferred to see him to have one
more prep readying for this, but maybe we’re just nitpicking. The consistently
great bay is an obvious win contender beneath Garrett Gomez.

AWESOME ACT (Awesome Again) made a sensational
three-year-old debut for European conditioner Jeremy Noseda, waxing an
overmatched field in the Gotham S. (G3) despite being under stout restraint for much of
the contest by Julien Leparoux, and a repeat of that showing would make him a
prime threat in this one. The intriguing chestnut drew well in the 16 post and
has reportedly trained well over this oval. The well-bred chestnut should get a
great trip and wouldn’t surprise with his best. Multiple stakes hero JACKSON BEND (Hear No Evil) has never finished worse
than second in his career and must be commended for his consistency while facing
stakes foes in seven straight attempts. The moderately-bred dynamo really got
our attention when holding second in the Wood Memorial S. (G1) last out after a
stretch-long duel with a top contender in this field. We have no idea if the
Florida-bred can handle this trip, but we can say the same about every horse in
the field so we can’t use that as a reason for disliking him. The hard-trying
youngster is a top-three player in our estimation with Mike Smith.

AMERICAN LION (Tiznow) has grown on us in recent days and we’ll use him in
our multi-race plays with pilot David Flores. A highly regarded juvenile when
winning the Hollywood Prevue S. (G3) in November, the WinStar homebred seemed to
lose favor with many after a pair of losses but returned in a big way in his
dirt debut last out, wiring the Illinois Derby (G3) field and earning a 101 BRIS
Speed number. The Eoin Harty trainee could be very dangerous with clear sailing. SUPER SAVER (Maria’s Mon) is a Grade 2 winner on the oval, is bred to handle
a route of ground as well as most in the field, and should be rounding into a
peak race for Todd Pletcher, so we’ll use him in a bunch of our wagers. Second
in the Arkansas Derby (G2) last out, the steady dark bay has good positional
speed but rated kindly in his last and stayed on late — a race which should set
him up nicely for this. The presence of Calvin Borel, who has bagged two of the
last three runnings of this race, shouldn’t hurt the WinStar homebred.

PADDY O’PRADO (El Prado [Ire]) has reportedly been training up a storm over
the Churchill oval and could be a sleeper in this field for Dale Romans. The
late-developing gray has finished in the top three in five consecutive races,
taking the grassy Palm Beach S. (G3) two back prior to a runner-up showing in
the Blue Grass S. (G1). We wish we had more dirt racing to judge this colt on,
but we’ll put him on the contenders’ list, nonetheless. Kent Desormeaux has the
assignment. DEVIL MAY CARE (Malibu Moon) rebounded from a poor effort in the
Silverbulletday S. (G3) to dominate the Bonnie Miss S. (G2) last out for trainer Todd
Pletcher, and the highly thought of miss must be at least considered in this
spot. The Grade 1 heroine is being ambitiously placed in here in our view, as
we’re not sure if she would be our pick in the Friday feature, the Kentucky Oaks
(G1). But since we can’t separate this field much, we would not be floored if
she toppled her 19 male counterparts and gave her conditioner the trophy missing
from his case.

MISSION IMPAZIBLE (Unbridled’s Song) is a lightly-raced colt who is hard for
us to gauge, so we’ll throw him in the contenders’ bag in this ultra-competitive
event. Trained by Pletcher, the improving Kentucky-bred ran his best late in his
Louisiana Derby (G2) conquer and could be peaking. We haven’t been on the gray’s
bandwagon at all this season, so we’ll probably leave him off our tickets even if
we’re not shocked if he upsets this group. Rajiv Maragh keeps the mount. We’re not sure if Risen Star S. (G2) star DISCREETLY MINE (Mineshaft) wants to
run longer, or is a cut below and somewhat one-paced, but we’ll probably toss
him in our multi-race plays just in case. The well-bred colt has never run
poorly and is seemingly always well placed, so if he were to take the lead at
some point in this event, we would not be surprised. Javier Castellano will be
in the irons for Pletcher.

Grade 1 hero SIDNEY’S CANDY (Candy Ride [Arg]) has smoked his way through the
Golden State and would likely be a clear favorite if he hadn’t spent his entire
career on synthetic surfaces to this point for Southern California’s top
trainer, John Sadler. The speedy colt has run three fields in succession off
their respective hooves, and he could simply be that good, but he was done no
favors when drawing widest of all in this field. We expect him to have trouble
for much of this race while trying to rate and run on dirt for the first time.
Joe Talamo has the return engagement. Florida Derby (G1) upsetter ICE BOX
(Pulpit) hails from the dangerous Nick Zito barn and should be rolling late
beneath Jose Lezcano. The progressive
chestnut is bred to run all day and might get a cozy, ground-saving trip from
the two post, but we simply don’t like the fact that he will have to pass nearly
every horse in the field to win this.

Rising star LINE OF DAVID (Lion Heart) would not be denied in the recent
Arkansas Derby (G1), the richest race preceding the Kentucky Derby (G1) for
sophomores, and he’s rolled to three straight wins since adding blinkers. The
John Sadler pupil has won each of his races in front-running fashion and could
find it busy up top today, but if the Kentucky-bred gets a sensible trip on or
just off the pace, we think he could be a major player inside the final furlong.
Breeders Futurity (G1) winner NOBLE’S PROMISE (Cuvee) finished off the board for
the first time when fifth in the Arkansas Derby last out for
conditioner Ken McPeek. The bay colt is a big question mark to excel at ten
panels and we’re not sure if he’s coming into this in peak form, so we’ll let
him beat us on top. Willie Martinez will be up.

STATELY VICTOR (Ghostzapper) ran away to a 4 1/4-length win in the Blue Grass most recently to earn his way in the field, but his prior dirt form leaves
something to be desired. We may be underestimating the improving bay, but we
have to take a stand somewhere. Alan Garcia will be in the irons. HOMEBOYKRIS (Roman Ruler) is being asked to do a lot in here and we simply
can’t see him doing more than being an early factor due to his being fresh with
one start in 2010. The Grade 1 hero had an excellent two-year-old season but
hasn’t shown much this campaign and must be omitted.

DEAN’S KITTEN (Kitten’s Joy) earned his way here via a tally in the Lane’s
End S. (G2) for conditioner Mike Maker. The chestnut Kentucky-bred
was defeated by 33 3/4-lengths in his lone dirt start to date and can’t be
endorsed by us with Robby Albarado in the saddle. MAKE MUSIC FOR ME (Bernstein) is another with no dirt form in this field but
did show a fine turn of foot when bagging the Pasadena S. on the lawn two prior.
The problem is this race is not on grass. Joel Rosario will guide the
longshot. BACKTALK (Smarty Jones) sports low BRIS Speed numbers and is a huge question
mark at the trip, so we won’t include the Tom Amoss charge with Miguel Mena.